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8/27/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: MU
Entry alerts: CWEI
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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- Yellen, Bullard, Fischer are all a bit more hawkish -- as GDP Q2 posts a
stellar 1.1% gain!
- SP500, DJ30 are heavy, SOX, RUTX still in solid trends.
- Perhaps, just maybe, NASDAQ gets some help from its big names.
- The sentiment is either new highs or 50% losses.
The market handled Yellen's Jackson Hole presentation well enough. After
all, James Bullard spoke with Bloomberg pre-market and basically said the
Fed would hike once and then not forever (okay, a bit of an exaggeration on
our part). He did note the Fed is "pretty close to its goals, pretty close
to a neutral rate", thus suggesting a hike. His description of the economy,
however, was less than flattering, describing it as a "cyclical, low growth
regime" that did not live up to the Fed's growth forecasts. So, Bullard
concluded, the Fed needs to "rethink its normalization plans" and focus on
the short term issues, e.g. low productivity and output. Hard to
extrapolate out of that anything more than a rate hike to get the Fed
neutral as Bullard sees it and then nothing. For a long time.
With the second reading of Q2 GDP limping home at 1.1%, the same as the
first read now that it was revised lower (1.1% from 1.2%), Bullard's talk of
a "cyclical, low growth regime" certainly seemed to be on point. The
numbers certainly point to low growth.
Yellen's statement at 10:00ET was basically the same theme, the old things
are going good enough to hike rates but very slowly tap dance. 'The case
for a rate hike is stronger in the recent months' (versus when the economy
was arguably much better, though still historically weak, in 2010, 2014?).
'Growth is sufficient to improve labor markets.' The Fed 'anticipates
gradual rate hikes as appropriate.' Much of the same but with more of a
sense of urgency for a hike then likely nothing for quite some time. After
all, IF the Fed is going to hike anytime soon it has to be in September
given the November election.
As noted, the equity and other markets handled these comments rather well as
they are along the lines of what many anticipated. Indeed, stocks started
the session flat to slightly higher, and Yellen's comments helped boost them
to session highs shortly after the statement was released. Stocks tested
that initial move higher, started to rebound again after a short test.
It was the Fischer factor, however, that upset the session. He rather
unassumingly noted that Yellen's comments "are consistent with a possible
September hike." He also noted the "big issues in growth are investment and
productivity." Yes, those are issues, something low, low interest rates
don't help because when rates are low it pays, as we have seen, not to
invest in usual business activities that generate growth and jobs, but
instead to 'invest' in stock buybacks that boost management salaries by
meeting stock price performance goals.
When Fischer's comments hit, stocks fell straight down for 45 minutes. A
bounce rolled over into a new low mid-afternoon, but stocks did manage to
recover some lost ground in the last hour.
SP500 -3.43%, -0.16%
NASDAQ 6.72, +0.13%
DJ30 -53.01, -0.29%
VOLUME: NYSE +15%, NASDAQ +5.5%
A/D: NYSE -1.5:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1
Okay, it was no bloodbath, but there was definitely an adverse reaction to
the Fed stating it may indeed hike rates another one time at some point in
the future that includes possibly September.
The indices closed off the lows but the Dow and SP500 look weaker than most.
All indices showed a move higher intraday but one that also reversed to a
lower low on the session. That last hour helped, but it didn't really
rescue a session that left several stock indices looking weak.
That said, given it was Friday and the market was dosed with a lot of data,
the moves are not absolute. Many times of late you see Friday moves that
are false flags, i.e. they indicate one direction only to be a passing issue
that is reversed the next week. With the market digesting several Fed
speeches all in the same session it is likely the verdict on the Friday
session regarding the Fed comments is not necessarily the final say.
Even so, SP500 and DJ30 do not look well and even NASDAQ is struggling to
move back up after dropping a bit harder Wednesday, falling through the 10
day EMA for the first time since June. DJ20 transports continue to languish
well, well off new highs, impacting Dow Theory negatively (no confirmation
of the DJ30 new high). It was another week that saw some stock indices
break to new highs but then get immediately pushed back down. Eventually
that can wear out all of the upside capital in a rally attempt. While SOX
looks still solid and RUTX not bad, unless something changes to the upside
early this coming week, the near term prognosis is that this move to higher
highs will need a deeper test. A positive is the NASDAQ big names are
showing some life off of support, and if NASDAQ throws in with SOX, that
won't hurt the upside.
None of the indices are in dire straits. Far from it. SP500 and DJ30 look
heavier and in need of a breather. The thing is, listening to the financial
stations, it is an all or nothing proposition right now: either the indices
hit new highs and continue doing so, OR they roll over and lose half their
value. Nothing in between. That is a false premise and thus has people
playing very scared when there are some really good patterns out there.
NASDAQ: Sluggish to end the week, fading to the 20 day EMA Wednesday to
Thursday, showing a doji there Friday. Below average volume, but the
highest volume day was on the Wednesday selling. NASDAQ also broke the 10
day EMA on the close for the first time since early July. This was a strong
move that showed great price/volume action in the middle of the move. Now
volume has mostly dried up with the biggest volume sessions on the downside
from Wednesday and the prior Tuesday that were both downside sessions. That
shows a bit more sellers than buyers on this last part of the move, though
still at below average volume levels versus the above average volume buying
that got the index to this point. That said, the NASDAQ big names are
looking better, and if they go up, NASDAQ goes up - - most of the time.
SOX: Tested the 10 day EMA on the week, a normal test for SOX as it has
climbed higher. Bounced Thursday and Friday, reaching a higher post-2000
high on Friday, but it faded to a doji at the close. Positive, but a bit of
a struggle as MACD backs off some. Of course still in the trend and punching
out new highs, just some lower MACD. I guess if you want to fear higher
highs you can, and that seems to be in vogue right now what with all the
billionaires going bearish.
RUTX: Similar to SOX, hitting a higher rally high on the week, then
testing. The disappointment was, as noted at the time, a new high that
looked solid, then giving that move back the next session. Still, it was
after a 4-day move though a very nominal new high was immediately sold: just
not that powerful, but the move certainly is steady as RUTX moves toward the
all-time high from mid-2015. Friday a big doji as it raced higher then
sold, recovering to hold the 10 day EMA and keeps its trend intact. MACD has
waned here as well, something impacting all of the NYSE indices.
SP400: New high early week, then a test Wednesday to Friday as SP400 fell
hard off the new high but did hold the 20 day EMA. Still trending up the 20
day EMA but MACD is markedly lower, indicating slowing momentum, and we know
NYSE trade is weak. Friday was a new high then a selloff, then a modest
recovery to the 20 day EMA. Still using the 20 day EMA as support for this
leg of the uptrend that is working since the sharp late June to early July
SP500: Looking quite heavy after a new high two weeks back was challenged
on Tuesday but failed. Volume is pathetic over the past three weeks as
SP500 pushed to that higher high. MACD continues to tail off after a peak
in the third week in July. Friday a big jump higher followed by the same
selloff and recovery in the other indices, but SP500 did not recover the 10
or 20 day EMA. It certainly looks primed for at least a test of the 50 day
EMA and the coincident early August low.
DJ30: Very similar to SP500 in its heavy look. DJ30 has two very distinct
rounded tops the past two months, fading all last week through the 20 day
EMA and toward the 50 day EMA as well as the early August low. Much lower
MACD on that second top. DJ30 is near the 50 day EMA already so it has put
in a pretty good test here and it is still just over the late early August
low. Thus it could put in a higher low at the 50 day EMA and move right back
up. Yes it could, but it is very sluggish right now and will have to show us
it is not a barking dog. Its components are mixed with for example IP
surging higher while UTX sells through the 20 day EMA on higher trade.
Good ACTION FRIDAY: AGEN, AMD, AMZN
Dropping: CSX; WSM
Trailing stop: COST
Bubble: PII; TSLA
Ready: SOHU, STX
NASDAQ Big Names: Some promise here as noted earlier. FB is showing solid
volume as it moves off a 2 week 20 day EMA test. AAPL is testing the 20 day
EMA after its good move, MACD still holding up. AMZN broke higher Friday
similar to FB, showing solid volume as well. NFLX was quieter Friday but it
was also up nicely Thursday on solid volume. GOOG is testing the 20 day EMA
and the late July upper gap point, trying to find footing for a bounce.
Semiconductors: Still solid and many were up Friday, e.g. MRVL, AVGO, MU,
AMD, XLNX, LRCX -- the ringleaders in the recent move. That is not bad.
Biotechs/Drugs: Big biotechs struggled on the week, e.g. CELG, BIIB. Some
of the mid- and smaller issues had issues as well, e.g. EXAS as it tests the
20 day EMA, KITE, BLUE. AGEN on the other hand still looks good.
Medical Instruments: The big biotechs really struggled midweek but this
group is looking solid, e.g. ATRS.
Industrial Equipment: Holding up but starting to look heavier in some cases,
e.g. CAT. UTX broke through the 20 day on volume Friday. CMI looks good
enough at the 20 day EMA though it threw a big tombstone doji Friday. TEX
looks fine in its lateral consolidation over the 20 day.
Transportation is mixed. Rails are still good enough in most cases, e.g.
KSU, CSX. Some truckers sold hard, however, e.g. JBHT, WERN. Shipping is
sinking a bit, e.g. DSX, TK. Airlines are not imploding but are in the
doghouse in terms of patterns, and Friday was not a great day for them.
Transports are far from confirming the Dow theory new highs on DJ30.
Retail: Some issues from leaders such as COST as it fell hard to the 50 day
MA to end the week. ROST is testing the 10 day EMA in a decent test after a
new high. KSS looks great in a 2 week flag as does JWN. M is testing a bit
farther. LULU broke lower Friday through support while DECK is holding near
support and RL is near the 10 day EMA. For the most part the group looks
Financial: Took some heart from the Yellen speech and the other speeches
from Fischer and company, but had a hard time holding the intraday breaks
higher. GS, JPM. C was still solid upside with a nice high volume break to
a higher rally high on volume.
Stats: +6.71 points (+0.13%) to close at 5218.92
Volume: 1.57B (+5.41%)
Up Volume: 891.22M (+128.95M)
Down Volume: 654.88M (-55.14M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.11 to 1
New Highs: 148 (+61)
New Lows: 29 (+4)
Stats: -3.43 points (-0.16%) to close at 2169.04
NYSE Volume: 821.8M (+14.5%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.53 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 169 (+73)
New Lows: 15 (-3)
Stats: -53.01 points (-0.29%) to close at 18395.4
VIX: 13.65; +0.02
VXN: 15.16; -0.2
VXO: 12.2; -0.34
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; -0.11. Two quick sessions back over 1.0 on
the close, making it 3 in the past two weeks.
29 of 35 below 1.0, 20 of last 52 over 1.0.
After a stretch of sub-1.0 closes, a second 1.0+ close out of the last two
Bulls and Bears: Bulls just edged higher this week, rising 0.5, still
enough below 60 to have some remaining upside. Bears actually rebounded to
20.2 from 20.0.
Once gain the Bulls continue higher, the bears lower. Getting very close to
those complacent levels where the market tops. Still has some room up to
60ish for bulls, but not much room to play. Thus have to watch other areas,
particularly the leaders to see if the market is rolling.
Bulls: 56.7 versus 56.2
Bears: 20.2 versus 20.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 56.7 versus 56.2
56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus
47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4%
versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4%
versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus
39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 20.2 versus 20.0%
20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1%
versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
Bonds (10 year): 1.62% versus 1.58%. Bonds as you would expect sold after
Fed speeches considered more hawkish. It was not that clear initially,
however, as bonds rallied higher before then falling.
Historical: 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus
1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51%
versus 1.54% versus 1.59% versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus
1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.46% versus 1.50% versus 1.51% versus 1.56%
versus 1.57% versus 1.56% versus 1.558% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus
1.59% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.47% versus 1.51% versus 1.434%
versus 1.36% versus 1.39% versus 1.373% versus 1.367% versus 1.44% versus
1.475% versus 1.51% versus 1.468% versus 1.46% versus 1.57% versus 1.74%
EUR/USD: 1.11949 versus 1.12894. Diving lower to the 50 day EMA as the
dollar strengthens on the 'hawkish' Fed.
Historical: 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus
1.13251 versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus
1.11636 versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus
1.10882 versus 1.1130 versus 1.1148 versus 1.1219 versus 1.1164 versus
1.1173 versus 1.10806 versus 1.10732 versus 109857 versus 1.0992 versus
1.0977 versus 1.1021 versus 1.1022 versus 1.1021 versus 1.10654 versus
1.1035 versus 1.1117 versus 1.1099
USD/JPY: 101.808 versus 100.485. Sharp move higher by the dollar off of
the early July low.
Historical: 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus
100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus 101.308 versus
101.864 versus 101.23 versus 101.857 versus 102.356 versus 101.832 versus
101.178 versus 101.256 versus 101.09 versus 102.599 versus 102.045 versus
104.679 versus 105.98 versus 104.731 versus 105.76 versus 106.05 versus
106.11 versus 107.16 versus 106.139 versus 105.95 versus 104.85 versus
105.31 versus 104.74 versus 102.686 versus 100.59 versus 100.768 versus
101.15 versus 100.89 versus 102.497 versus 103.128 versus 102.912 versus
Oil: 47.64, +0.31. Stronger dollar but not a commensurate rise in oil. It
did, however, hold the 10 day EMA after flopping to it Wednesday and filling
the prior week's upside gap.
Gold: 1325.90, +1.30. Modest gain after an initial big spike upside. That
left gold still below the 50 day EMA after breaking below it Thursday as it
fell harder Wednesday through the bottom of its two week lateral range that
was trying to put in a higher low.
The Fed-speak is out for now with a more hawkish take on the speeches and
comments. Indeed, the odds of a September 25BP rate hike moved up to 36%
from 21% on Thursday. December's odds moved to 63.7% from 51.7%. The
dollar rallied, bonds sold, gold is under pressure. Sure looks as if the
markets are pricing in a rate hike.
But, as noted earlier in the week, what will a rate hike that is 25BP do in
the big picture, and in addition, it is likely to be a rather lonely rate
hike with another 'one and done for the foreseeable future' scenario. In
that case the markets likely can continue about their business as they did
after the December 2015 hike. Hey, they hit new highs during that time.
Of course, history also shows the market hitting highs after Fed rate hikes
only to later crater. The economy is still bifurcated, good for those that
get the easy money and have the scale to overcome the regulations including
the ACA and its crushing costs. Hey, they just lobby Congress and the
President to allow more of those college educated workers on visas to come
over and work for less -- after firing their US-born workers. No that is
not correct: they fire them AFTER they force them to train their
replacements. Like your grandmother making you go cut your own switch to
get whipped with.
Anyway, the point is the economy is not strong across the board as the weak
GDP and other data show. The US will never be the strong engine it was
until these policies are changed, monetary, fiscal, tax, and regulatory.
Hell, the Treasury has taken in record tax receipts for several years in a
row and we are STILL piling up more and more debt. All that tax revenue but
GDP is still at 1%.
Does that not tell you that something is terribly awry with the US'
structural economy? That shows you that the gains are largely on paper,
that large amounts of tax dollars are coming from those inflated financial
asset gains. With that situation, WHY would the government ever want to
change things? It gets more tax dollars without having to 'spend' any on
fiscal measures. More for spending on pet projects that further strengthen
the central government by giving it more money for more areas to spread
control, such as local police forces with the 'do it our way our you don't
get money' carrot and stick.
But, I digress. The NYSE large caps have weakened while growth still looks
decent. There is plenty of leadership out there, much of it in the same
groups, but that is okay. As I always say, leadership is the ultimate proof
of a move. Rallies can start, but if no real leadership in good patterns
takes over, it will fizzle.
This is an older, mature rally, however. It still needs leadership to
advance, but leadership can fade and fizzle. That means new leaders have to
emerge or money has to rotate between groups. If not, the rally will fade
as the leadership gets extended and fades. Money is rotating through the
market, or at least it has been. After the way last week ended the market
will have to show if the money will continue to move in and move around. If
so, we play the upside as the market tries to squeeze out some more gains
against all of those bears that have bearish bets. That is why I chose
'squeeze' to describe more upside: squeezing those bears, BUT with good
patterns from the leaders as well.
This will be an important week to see how SP500 and DJ30 try to shake off
their weakness AND how NASDAQ reacts with the Friday improvement from its
big names. They were tantalizing in their action and if they join SOX and
RUTX, that is strong stuff. We have a play on GOOG, we are in FB and NFLX,
but I tell you AMZN may provide an upside play and AAPL could provide a good
break off its test.
Funny money has built this long rally, and it certainly saved a selloff and
built the rally this year. Will the move remain with the funny money on the
wane (man, I am poetic today)? The market will have a chance to show it.
We will let our upside positions work if they will, add to them if good
moves are made, but if areas fall over, we are looking at them for downside
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5218.92
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday all-time high
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
The 50 day EMA at 5097
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4865
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2169.04
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2150
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2052
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,395.40
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,310
18,288 from March 2015
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,528
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
August 26 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimat, Q2 (8:30): 1.1% actual versus 1.1% expected, 1.2%
GDP Deflator - Secon, Q2 (8:30): 2.3% actual versus 2.2% expected, 2.2%
International Trade , Julyy (8:30): -$59.3B actual versus -$64.5B prior
(revised from -$63.3B)
Michigan Sentiment - Final, August (10:00): 89.8 actual versus 90.6
expected, 90.4 prior
August 29 - Monday
Personal Income, July (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, July (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PCE Prices, July (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
August 30 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, June (9:00): 5.1% expected, 5.2% prior
Consumer Confidence, August (10:00): 97.0 expected, 97.3 prior
August 31 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/27 (7:00)
ADP Employment Chang, August (8:15): 170K expected, 179K prior
Chicago PMI, August (9:45): 54.5 expected, 55.8 prior
Pending Home Sales, July (10:00): 0.7% expected, 0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/27 (10:30)
September 1 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, August (7:30): -57.1% prior
Initial Claims, 08/27 (8:30): 265K expected, 261K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/20 (8:30): 2145K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q2 (8:30): -0.6% expected, -0.5% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q2 (8:30): 2.1% expected, 2.0% prior
Construction Spendin, July (10:00): 0.6% expected, -0.6% prior
ISM Index, August (10:00): 52.2 expected, 52.6 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 08/27 (10:30): 11 bcf prior
Auto Sales, August (14:00): 5.16M prior
Truck Sales, August (14:00): 9.10M prior
September 2 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (8:30): 180K expected, 255K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, August (8:30): 175K expected, 217K prior
Unemployment Rate, August (8:30): 4.8% expected, 4.9% prior
Average Hourly Earni, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Hourly Earnings, August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, August (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$43.0B expected, -$44.5B prior
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 2.0% expected, -1.5% prior
End part 1 of 3
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