Saturday, April 23, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 4-23-16

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4/23/2016 Investment House Daily
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MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: NGL
Entry alerts: WETF
Trailing stops: AMZN; CTRP
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- NASDAQ big names take heavy fire after earnings.
- 'Old economy' aka 'value' areas continue to perform.
- Job cuts are very sad as more quality jobs are lost.
- BOJ to lend at negative rates?
- Markit PMI suggests it was not just a Q1 slowdown.
- Working the same areas that have produce high percentage winners.

Friday saw more of the 'old economy' or 'value' stocks as some are putting it lead the market though even those stocks were again taking somewhat of a pause before the weekend. Thursday saw SP500 and the NYSE indices fall, and Friday they were off a bit as well, that is, until they rebounded in the afternoon session.

SP500 0.10, 0.00%
NASDAQ -39.66, -0.80%
DJ30 21.23, 0.12%
SP400 0.81%
RUTX 0.96%
SOX 0.20%

Despite some of the old economy/value stocks (the leaders) taking time off, many were still moving higher. Money is still moving their way as it was coming out of big names as evident by the Friday bombs lower from MSFT, GOOG, SBUX. Stocks that have been in bear markets while the FANG rallied started to rally a few months back and others continue to join in on the move.

The incongruity in the moves is the relative economic performance in the world versus upside price moves in commodities, materials, industrial equipment, and other similar stock prices.

Friday Markit released its US PMI and April was the worst month for the US in 6.5 years. What a recovery! The Fed expects Q1 GDP this week to show a scintillating 0.3%. Markit's study shows that the Q1 weakness is not, as many will claim, just a Q1 thing, but is extending into Q2.

Hate to be a downer and seen as always dissing the US economy, but there is a point: it goes to show that the market rise off the February low and what appear to be attempts at a higher high are built on Fed and world central bank easy money. That is nothing new to readers, but it is important to keep things in perspective.

Thus when you hear Thursday and Friday some analysts and TV mouths gushing about what great quarters some companies had in beating earnings expectations, you have to give it the idiot test. That test is 'do you think I am an idiot to just accept what you are saying when I know that expectations where at best HALF of what they were a year ago?' Profits are getting cut in half but of course that reduction in profits is still good enough to support stock prices that are basically equivalent or higher than they were back then. Seriously? Profits are falling and that justifies prices rising to levels at profits 2x what they are now? It strains credulity.

Add to that the jobs picture. INTC bleeding 1/3 of its workers; 12,000 quality jobs gone. HAL announced 1/3 of its workers were going as well. Quality jobs still being turned into waiters, waitresses, and bartenders. At some point who is going to be buying the food and drinks? The Fed as part of a new round of stimulus?

That is why when you look at the bigger picture and not just the daily hustle to make money in the market you get kind of cynical. You realize that the majority of companies cannot support their stock price, that it is a trick of financial asset inflation.

Indeed, it is getting so bad that some are suggesting the Fed simply monetize gold, i.e. just outright buy gold for high prices, sprinkling that money throughout the economy. At least we would be buying something of value for a change. It almost seems like sane monetary policy at this juncture, proof of how insane things are. After all the BOJ is now toying with negative rates on what it lends to its banks. In other words, paying banks to borrow money.

A major problem we see lurking is the dollar. The administration, Fed, and large corporations want it lower. That means higher prices for oil and other dollar based items. The Fed wants inflation. The administration wants a weaker dollar for debt reasons as well as some other reasons that are not that politically correct to state.

The dollar does look as if it is about to break. A big rally to early 2015, a fade, a rally back to the early 2015 high late that year, and now a fall to the 2015 lows. A key test in a double top pattern. If the dollar breaks and heads lower, the US consumer is crushed as energy prices spike along with the cost of everything else. The Fed gets inflation, but a hollow victory because the inflation is not due to economic growth as its Keynesian models want, but because of horrid monetary policy that has collapsed the dollar's value. Again.

Frankly, the dollar doesn't have much downside left. Since the central bank's inception by act of Congress, the US dollar has lost 97% of its value. Yes, a dollar today valued in dollars at the time the central bank was formed is worth 3 cents. Gold still holds the same relative value in what it can buy. The dollar, down 97% in the same period. Good work oh great central bank!


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SP500 rallied to the November 2015 peak and then faded Thursday and Friday. Long rally straight up. It is at prior resistance. The rounded top started in October 2014 (QE end) is still in place. SP500 in that context is quite precarious. If you add in the Fed and its willingness to back the financial markets, you can toss a lot of technical issues out the window. The question remains: how long can the Fed keep this up before the markets say 'no mas' and sell anyway? Cannot know. So for now we play the upside even if the pattern is precarious on SP500. Let it test then pick up the 'value' names as they bounce off of their trend tests.

NASDAQ: Gapped to a doji at the 20 day EMA Friday after a weeklong lateral move. NASDAQ broke resistance with a gap and run 1.5 weeks earlier but could not advance. It has now gapped back through that resistance to the downside, forming something of an island reversal to the downside. It is up to the big names to stem the selling and attempt to hang on. NASDAQ is now with SOX as an index that broke resistance only to give it up. Possible downside drag on the rest of the market, but thus far what has occurred is a reallocation of money from NASDAQ big names to the 'value' areas.

DJ30: Similar to SP500 testing its move on the week. DJ30 broke past the November 2015 peak and is in the last range that included the all-time high. Tested Friday, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding to a doji. Trying to set up for another upside bounce and a step closer to taking out the 2015 all-time high.

RUTX: Nice break higher Friday to a new rally high after clearing the 200 day SMA on the week. Nice move, still in the middle of the September to December resistance.

SP400: Bounced off the 10 day EMA, managing to hold the move over the late 2015 twin peaks. Just overhead is the March to July 2015 range and the all-time high.

SOX: Still struggling at the lows of the April range formed after SOX failed its attempt to take out the October/December 2015 highs.


LEADERSHIP

The bifurcation caused by money rotating from NASDAQ large cap names to 'old economy' stocks continues.

Big Names: GOOG, MSFT, SBUX all broke lower. AAPL was down all week, struggling Friday to hold the 50 day EMA.

Metals: Some are testing, e.g. AKS, CENX, FCX while others continue to rally, e.g. ZEUS, TX. Overall very strong.

Energy: Same as metals with some testing but many rising: NGL, SWN, WLL, APC, OII.

Financial: WETF jumped nicely. GS, JPM up nicely on the week, pausing Friday. Group still getting money.

Chips: Some interesting setups as some stocks are trying to break higher, e.g. AMBA


MARKET STATISTICS

NASDAQ
Stats: -39.66 points (-0.8%) to close at 4906.23
Volume: 2.076B (+6.85%)

Up Volume: 1.12B (+284.6M)
Down Volume: 876.44M (-24.89M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.67 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.12 to 1

New Highs: 49 (-4)
New Lows: 24 (+2)

S&P
Stats: +0.1 points (0%) to close at 2091.58
NYSE Volume: 1.05B (+6.38%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.36 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.75 to 1

New Highs: 54 (-8)
New Lows: 9 (0)

DJ30
Stats: +21.23 points (+0.12%) to close at 18003.75


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.22; -0.73
VXN: 16.61; +0.04
VXO: 13.49; -0.04

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; -0.19

9 of the last 22 above 1.0. After a spike of several 1.0 sessions, a streak of sub-1.0.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls surge, jumping past the high hit three weeks back. Bears plummet to near 20. Stock traders and investors are buying into the Fed backing the market.

Bulls: 47.4 versus 41.2

Bears: 21.7 versus 27.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 41.2%
45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%

Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in late 2015 and 2016 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.

Bears: 27.8%
27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5%

Background: Finally back below 35% after spiking to 39.8 three weeks back.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 1.88% versus 1.86%. It would appear the bond market is not buying that the Fed will not hike rates. Economic data is horrid but rates are moving higher.

Historical: 1.86% versus 1.95% versus 1.79% versus 1.77% versus 1.75% versus 1.79% versus 1.76% versus 1.77% versus 1.72% versus 1.72% versus 1.691% versus 1.75% versus 1.72% versus 1.77% versus 1.79% versus 1.77% versus 1.82% versus 1.80% versus 1.88% versus 1.90% versus 1.88% versus 1.94% versus 1.92% versus 1.89% versus 1.90% versus 1.91% versus 1.97% versus 1.966% versus 1.979% versus 1.927% versus 1.88%


EUR/USD: 1.12249 versus 1.1289. Euro closes the week at the 50 day SMA as it struggles since the early April high.

Historical: 1.1289 versus 1.1295 versus 1.1360 versus 1.1317 versus 1.1285 versus 1.1264 versus 1.1278 versus 1.1389 versus 1.1410 versus 1.1397 versus 1.1370 versus 1.1396 versus 1.13792 versus 1l1392 versus 1.1391 versus 1.1382 versus 1.1339 versus 1.1295 versus 1.1195 versus 1.1178 versus 1.1177 versus 1.1217 versus 1.1243 versus 1.1272 versus 1.1313 versus 1.1227 versus 1.1112 versus 1.1103 versus 1.1149 versus 1.1106 versus 1.1107 versus 1.1017 versus 1.0999 versus 1.0961 versus 1.0865 versus 1.0866 versus 1.0880 versus 1.0940 versus 1.102


USD/JPY: 111.79 versus 109.46. When the BOJ said it would lend at negative rates the yen folded.

Historical: 109.46 versus 109.135 versus 109.06 versus 108.762 versus 109.65 versus 109.29 versus 108.505 versus 107.95 versus 108.175 versus 108.425 versus 109.84 versus 110.45 versus 111.313 versus 111.620 versus 112.60 versus 112.415 versus 112.71 versus 113.425 versus 113.612 versus 112.83 versus 112.445 versus 112.298 versus 111.90 versus 111.605 versus 111.46 versus 112.58 versus 113.11


Oil: 43.75, +0.34. New rally high Wednesday, hanging on Thursday and Friday. In the September through October price resistance.


Gold: 1233.70, -15.80. Still banging around in the range from 1200 to 1280.


MONDAY

Lots of news including GDP and lots more earnings. Money continues moving through the market and we are looking at many of the same kind of plays that are making us money, i.e. those forming good patterns off of long declines. Those are deemed 'value' and are accumulated in their bases, then break higher to some pretty serious percentage gains. Those have made us some excellent money so we are going to go there again.

As for the state of the market, it is the same, just a bit higher. NASDAQ and SOX are a worry, but if money is flowing from them to other places in the market, the move can continue. If the Fed stays steadfast, at least in the market's view, regarding supporting stocks, then the confidence continues as reflected in the increase in bulls and flop in bears.

Don't want to over think it right now. Going to stick with what is working. After all, if you think about it too much and what likely ultimately happens when the well runs dry, you get depressed. Much rather keep looking for those CENX, AKS, NLG, XEC, etc. plays that set up off the lows and surge.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4906.23

Resistance:
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower gap point
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for NASDAQ.
4999 is the October upper gap point
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak

Support:
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4850
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
The 50 day EMA at 4802
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4637 is the February intraday high
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in the selloff.
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 2091.58

Resistance:
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2029
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2014
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows


Dow: Closed at 18,003.75

Resistance:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015

Support:
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The March low at 17,786
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The 50 day EMA at 17,417
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,122
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

April 25 - Monday
New Home Sales, March (10:00): 521K expected, 512K prior

April 26 - Tuesday
Durable Orders, March (8:30): 1.7% expected, -2.8% prior
Durable Goods -ex tr, March (8:30): 0.5% expected, -1.0% prior
Case-Shiller 20-city, February (9:00): 5.6% expected, 5.7% prior
Consumer Confidence, April (10:00): 96.2 prior

April 27 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/23 (7:00)
Pending Home Sales, March (10:00): 0.3% expected, 3.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 04/23 (10:30): 2.08M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, April (14:00): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior

April 28 - Thursday
GDP-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 1.4% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.9% prior
Initial Claims, 04/23 (8:30): 259K expected, 247K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/16 (8:30): 2137K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 04/23 (10:30): 7 bcf prior

April 29 - Friday
Core PCE Prices, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Employment Cost Inde, Q1 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
PCE Prices, March (8:30): 0.1% prior
Personal Income, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Personal Spending, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Core PCE Prices, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Employment Cost Inde, Q1 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Chicago PMI, April (9:45): 53.3 expected, 53.6 prior
Michigan Sentiment -, April (10:00): 90.0 expected, 89.7 prior

End part 1 of 3
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Thursday, April 21, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 4-20-16

* * * *
4/20/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: GS; NBL
Trailing stops: AGEN
Stop alerts: NKE

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Modest gains as indices stretch higher, look a bit tired near term.
- Another oil rumor, another refutation, another oil surge nonetheless.
- Recent leaders pause after 1.5 weeks upside.
- Earnings are great? Still very familiar issues, but if you can buy back stock with virtually free money, you too can beat the bottom line.
- Perhaps a pause to the weekend to give the recent leaders a rest.
- As long as the Fed (aka Yellen) stays the course, stocks have bids.

Another day, more oil rumors/false reports, more upside. Big name NASDAQ stocks were off their feed but the real leaders of late were leading, more or less, once more. There were some stellar moves even outside of earnings, e.g. NGL, UNT, but earnings didn't hurt as we picked up some GS as it continued its post-earnings run.

An up day yes, but as noted, even the leaders of late were so-so. The index results reflected the rather mediocre performance.

SP500 1.06, 0.08%
NASDAQ 7.80, 0.16%
DJ30 42.67, 0.24%
SP400 0.05%
RUTX 0.18%
SOX 0.98%

VOLUME: NYSE +9.5%, NASDAQ +10%. Up volume on an upside session generally speaks to accumulation, but with some resistance near at hand after a run higher, perhaps a bit of churn, i.e. turnover as sellers sell as fast as the buyers buy.

A/D: NYSE 1.3:1, NASDAQ 1.2:1. Matched the indices' mediocrity.

After 6 of 7 sessions upside for the NYSE indices, however, a bit of lethargy setting in is normal. Thus the doji on SP500, SP400, RUTX are not that worrisome though a bit of backfilling is likely.

Wow, what a change the backing of the central bank makes. Money is staying in the market versus leaving, rotating and keeping the moves going. Money keeps finding 'old economy' stocks that put in their bear market while NASDAQ big names rallied to new highs. Money moving versus leaving because it believes the Fed has its back. Doesn't matter what Rosengren says about the market not properly factoring in the Fed's resolve. He is not Yellen, at least the last time anyone checked.

Indeed, after a respite the past five sessions where it moved laterally after breaking resistance, NASDAQ may now try to make a break higher once more. AMZN is pausing in a test after its last run, AAPL has faded to the 50 day EMA after worries regarding its suppliers. GOOG is at the 10 day EMA but it has earnings out Thursday after the close; last time it was torched off its results and it is again near the top of its 5 month range. That makes it problematic. FB is attempting a bounce from the 50 day MA. If they move, NASDAQ moves. If they break lower, NASDAQ and SOX become the black sheep of the market.


NEWS/ECONOMY

Earnings someone dominated the action, particularly with respect to specific stocks. Nothing new there. INTC announced it would can 11% (12,000) of its workforce so they could go get some of those food service industry jobs this economy is so good at creating, and INTC posted a solid 1.27% gain as it moved off the 50 day EMA. KO was KO'd as worldwide volume fell, gapping below the 50 day MA.

Of course the bald guy on CNBC sees silver linings everywhere in the earnings of the big corporations even as guidance tumbles after revenues have tumbled massively in the past year. Every one of his big corporate loves are credited with a great job because it beat the bottom line even while revenues, in many cases, tumbled -- as if stock buy backs have no impact on earnings per share. Buy stock back and you can raise your bottom line even if revenues fall. Happens every quarter. Hey, we live in a world of alternate reality right now where the central banks control markets, accounting slight of hand puffs up results, and only a select few have the keys that grant access to the free money so they can this.


Oil's story of the day . . .

Oil was up on the day. Big. 44.18, +1.71. This even with the dollar rallied against the euro and the yen. What on earth?

Oh yes, the daily oil rank rumor. A story circulated that an OPEC meeting was scheduled for May in Russia. Not sure where it was supposed to take place, but let's just say Sochi for the heck of it. Where did it come from? Who knows? Russia almost immediately refuted the story, flatly stating no meeting in May and indeed "doubts any agreement is possible in the near futures." Earlier in the day Russia stated it could raise its production if it wanted.

Even after Russia's denial, oil didn't flinch. As noted, it closed 4.03% higher. Hey, a rank rumor sparked a turn at 26.10 in February, and with a new recovery high off Wednesday off of that low, it looks as if bogus stories are still working their magic. To a willing audience, of course.

You would think the world central banks are behind this. They like higher oil because they believe the market likes higher oil and, by golly, they may just be able to rescue the US fracking industry and get some of those 250K+ high paying jobs lost back in the mix. With all of the bogus stories floating around each week, it deserves at least a 'hmm.'


THE MARKET

CHARTS

Something of a stall, a day off of sorts as the market took a moment. Up yes, but nothing strong. Indeed, some doji on the candlestick charts and a bit higher volume. Some buyers moving in, but sellers selling just about as fast. After a good run the past 1.5 weeks and with SP500 touching the November 2015 peak, perhaps time for a pause that perhaps refreshed.

SP500: As noted, SP500 moved to the November peak, eclipsing the closing high by 2 points on the session high. Faded to a doji, higher, almost average volume. Just a bit of churn as the sellers moved in at that prior peak. Nothing major, nothing trend-changing. MACD is a bit lower, the move is still on overall low volume. The big top is still in place. There is every technical reason to believe the move is over, but then again, there are non-technical factors at play, namely the Federal Reserve and its unwillingness to let financial markets get in trouble, particularly after something scared the willies out of the central banks with that February second dive lower on the heels of the January plunge.

DJ30: A higher high on the recovery, taking out the late December 2014 high, the last high before the February 2015 and May 2015 all-time high. Faded that move, unable to hold on. As with SP500, there is no reason for this move to have gone so far, the volume is putrid the past 2 months, but there is the Fed. Still, a bit of a test after a solid 1.5 week move to the penultimate high before the all-time high is normal. Normal as can be in this situation.

NASDAQ: Five days lateral after breaking over resistance the prior Wednesday. Working along the 10 day EMA, holding the gains. AMZN, AAPL, GOOG have pulled back to test. If they kick it in gear again, NASDAQ can follow the other large cap indices higher. Even so, not a ton of money moving toward tech right now. Perhaps some more earnings can pry open some wallets.

RUTX: Modestly higher though stalling at the Tuesday intraday high. That also is right in the middle of the August to December trading range.

SP400: Same action as RUTX with the pair of doji but did clear the November/December peaks. Now bumping the bottom of the February to August 2015 range formed before the August meltdown.

SOX: Tuesday looked pretty grim as SOX broke lower but Wednesday it held the bottom of the April range and bounced. Not powerful, but held where it needed. Of course it still has massive resistance from the October-December head and shoulders as well as the top of the range it has built for itself the past four weeks.


LEADERSHIP

Metals: As with the indices, a pause here as well with closes off the highs (AKS, NEM) or doji (CENX). Others are still working quite well, e.g. FCX.

Energy: Some slowing a bit (WLL, SWN), others still working well (NGL, ETP, NBL, CVX).

Drugs/Biotechs: Nothing fancy, but hanging in. BMRN tried to make a break but gave some back. ZIOP is holding up, CRMD is taking a break from its surge. CELG still looks as if it can break higher. BIIB struggled.

Financial: Excellent action. We picked up some GS as it continued higher. MS, JPM, BAC are examples of solid moves.


MARKET STATISTICS

NASDAQ
Stats: +7.8 points (+0.16%) to close at 4948.13
Volume: 2.078B (+9.74%)

Up Volume: 1.05B (+242.57M)
Down Volume: 689.16M (-309.35M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.17 to 1

New Highs: 0 (-86)
New Lows: 0 (-28)

S&P
Stats: +1.6 points (+0.08%) to close at 2102.4
NYSE Volume: 961M (+9.58%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.29 to 1

New Highs: 114 (-61)
New Lows: 4 (-3)

DJ30
Stats: +42.67 points (+0.24%) to close at 18096.27


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.28; +0.04
VXN: 16.31; -0.12
VXO: 13.62; +0.57

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.26

8 of the last 21 above 1.0. After a spike of several 1.0 sessions, a streak of sub-1.0. Short interest getting burned off and no one speculating downside or buying protection.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls are fading again, apparently not that impressed by the indices near higher highs. Bears held steady at decent levels. Lots of skeptics but more relying on the Fed even with the drop in bulls.

Bulls: 41.2 versus 45.4

Bears: 27.8 versus 27.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 41.2%
45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%

Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in late 2015 and 2016 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.

Bears: 27.8%
27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5%

Background: Finally back below 35% after spiking to 39.8 three weeks back.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 1.85% versus 1.79%. Wow what a bomb lower. Did someone just decide the Fed was going to hike? Or, is someone dumping US treasuries? China trying to tie gold to its yuan in a bid to take over as reserve currency and perhaps dumping treasuries? Or, how about Saudi Arabia doing what it said it might do, just as Obama arrives as a kind of poke in the eye?

Historical: 1.79% versus 1.77% versus 1.75% versus 1.79% versus 1.76% versus 1.77% versus 1.72% versus 1.72% versus 1.691% versus 1.75% versus 1.72% versus 1.77% versus 1.79% versus 1.77% versus 1.82% versus 1.80% versus 1.88% versus 1.90% versus 1.88% versus 1.94% versus 1.92% versus 1.89% versus 1.90% versus 1.91% versus 1.97% versus 1.966% versus 1.979% versus 1.927% versus 1.88%


EUR/USD: 1.1299 versus 1.1360. Dollar jumping back up as euro puts in a lower high.

Historical: 1.1360 versus 1.1317 versus 1.1285 versus 1.1264 versus 1.1278 versus 1.1389 versus 1.1410 versus 1.1397 versus 1.1370 versus 1.1396 versus 1.13792 versus 1l1392 versus 1.1391 versus 1.1382 versus 1.1339 versus 1.1295 versus 1.1195 versus 1.1178 versus 1.1177 versus 1.1217 versus 1.1243 versus 1.1272 versus 1.1313 versus 1.1227 versus 1.1112 versus 1.1103 versus 1.1149 versus 1.1106 versus 1.1107 versus 1.1017 versus 1.0999 versus 1.0961 versus 1.0865 versus 1.0866 versus 1.0880 versus 1.0940 versus 1.102


USD/JPY: 109.688 versus 109.135. Nice surge as the dollar rebound off the double bottom continues.

Historical: 109.135 versus 109.06 versus 108.762 versus 109.65 versus 109.29 versus 108.505 versus 107.95 versus 108.175 versus 108.425 versus 109.84 versus 110.45 versus 111.313 versus 111.620 versus 112.60 versus 112.415 versus 112.71 versus 113.425 versus 113.612 versus 112.83 versus 112.445 versus 112.298 versus 111.90 versus 111.605 versus 111.46 versus 112.58 versus 113.11


Oil: 44.18, +1.71. Blasting over the March high to a new recovery high off the February low. At some resistance from the September/October 2015 lows, but next serious resistance is 46.50.


Gold: 1254.40, +2.60. Surged pre-market but was more contained at the close. Still has to get through 1264 with some power to make a good clean upside break.


THURSDAY

The stock indices may be a bit stretched near term. It would appear they are stretched longer term as well, but a lot of sectors are not. Thus, despite the index gains, they are still working higher. Even some of those, e.g. metals, are a bit overdone near term.

Thus, perhaps a bit of pullback into the weekend. It likely would not hurt anything and it gives some NASDAQ names a chance to get some money and perhaps resume some moves. NASDAQ and SOX remain questionable, and if they rejoin the market has even more upside impetus. It may be a stretch to think they will start pitching in again, but with earnings and some pullbacks to support by some big names, the right news can bounce them in a still overall positive market. Even if they cannot make that move, after a bit of a rest, the recent leaders will be ready once more.

Again, the overall move appears to be reaching levels that would suggest the move stalls. Technically there are issues; there have been issues all along such as low volume. Yet, favorable central bank action or the belief central bank action will remain favorable is a powerful force to overcome.

Now IF the Fed, and by Fed I mean Yellen, comes out and says the market has priced in too much Fed largesse or makes some other indication the market is too optimistic regarding Fed actions, then the house of cards is revealed. Then the technical heaviness would slam the move.

That is a seriously weird way to have to look at markets, but those are the markets the Fed and the government have given us. Therefore, as long as Yellen sticks to the current chorus, the money stays in the market and stocks will move higher.

Have a great evening!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4948.13

Resistance:
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for NASDAQ.
4999 is the October upper gap point
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak

Support:
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4851
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
The 50 day EMA at 4792
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4637 is the February intraday high
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in the selloff.
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
4116 is the October 2014 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2102.40

Resistance:
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2026
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2014
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows


Dow: Closed at 18,099.59

Resistance:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015

Support:
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The March low at 17,786
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The 50 day EMA at 17,369
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,119
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

April 18 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , April (10:00): 58 actual versus 59 expected, 58 prior

April 19 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, March (8:30): 1089K actual versus 1170K expected, 1194K prior (revised from 1178K)
Building Permits, March (8:30): 1086K actual versus 1200K expected, 1177K prior (revised from 1167K)

April 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/16 (7:00): 1.3% actual versus 10.0% prior
Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 5.33M actual versus 5.30M expected, 5.07M prior (revised from 5.08M)
Crude Inventories, 04/16 (10:30): 2.08M actual versus 6.634M prior

April 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 04/16 (8:30): 263K expected, 253K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/09 (8:30): 2171K prior
Philadelphia Fed, April (8:30): 9.9 expected, 12.4 prior
FHFA Housing Price I, February (9:00): 0.5% prior
Leading Indicators, March (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 04/16 (10:30): -3 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, April 17, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 4-16-16

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4/16/2016 Investment House Daily
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Entry alerts: HAR
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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

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Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Stock indices break higher Wednesday then stall into Friday.
- OPEC Doha meeting provides no freeze, no cut, no nothing.
- US data shows some improvement then more backsliding
- SOX gave up the break through resistance and now can NASDAQ hold its move
- Oil versus earnings: market seeking the next catalyst, though it still has the Fed.

This weekend we waited on releasing the Market Summary given the significance of the OPEC Doha meeting. Friday a draft agreement was leaked that had no enforcement mechanisms and excluded Iran. Today the meeting's start was delayed because Saudi Arabia demanded a rewrite of the draft agreement to include Iran as a necessary part of a freeze. Just now the word has hit: meeting over, no agreement, the parties probably meet again in June.

It is almost as if Saudi Arabia does not get what it wants then it will go back to Plan A, i.e. producing as much as it can in order to drive prices lower and shut down the US domestic shale fracking that has managed to hang on thanks to recovering oil prices. That has happened before, and I don't know if you remember or not, but back in the 1980's, Iran was a major holdout as well and Saudi Arabia decided to teach it a lesson along with the upstart US domestic industry.

On the news, Saudi Arabia stocks are down the most in three weeks.

As an aside before we get into the meat of the market, has anyone been counting the number of serious earthquakes the past week? Last night a 7.8 in Ecuador. This on top of a 7.0 in Japan (one of four majors there), an 8.2 in Chile, a 6.9, 6.7 and two 6.4's in Vanauatu (south Pacific), a 6.9 in Burma, a 6.6 in Afghanistan, and a 6.2 off Guatemala Friday. The 'Ring of Fire' is burning as are other areas in Asia. The experts are suggesting a major quake or quakes of 8.0 or larger are signaled by all of this activity. I guess they know; my understanding was the more smaller ones you had, the more stress released thus making a big one less likely. Nothing to do with the markets of course, but something that keeps people on edge. No matter how many machines and algos trade it, they are programmed by people and thus have emotional biases built in. Thus emotion continues to play a role in market moves.

Overall Friday there was little market changed just as there was little on Thursday. Wednesday saw the important move for the week, a break higher from the two week lateral consolidation. NASDAQ gapped above resistance and held the move into Friday. The Dow is holding a move to the top of the November/December 2015 range while the SP400 similarly tests the November/December peaks. SOX tried the December 2015 peak and has retreated near term.

SP500 -2.05, -0.10%
NASDAQ -7.67, 0.16%
DJ30 -28.97, -0.16%
SP400 0.38%
RUTX 0.21%
SOX -0.85%

VOLUME: NYSE +13%, NASDAQ +2.3%. Expiration so cannot read much into the trade levels.

A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1

In short, the indices broke higher with NASDAQ clearing some resistance (just to face more resistance) and DJ30 continuing to look strong as it takes on higher resistance. Technically they are extended and still at resistance levels below the prior highs. On the other hand, the Fed over the past three weeks has more or less, pledged to support the financial markets, purportedly because the rest of the world is in the crapper.

To end last week, however, the data suggested that Europe was not totally dead and China was stronger than expected with stronger retail sales and an in line GDP. Cramer from CNBC even said "China is fine." That begs the question: if the rest of the world 'is fine,' then why is the Fed not hiking? Perhaps a meeting with the President Monday reiterated that it would be in the nation's 'best interest' if the Fed did not hike during an election year or otherwise let anything disrupt the market's gains? I would not be surprised.

US Data: Some better, some not

New York PMI, April: 9.56 vs 2.3 expected versus 0.6 March. A second month of improvement and much better than expected. Maybe a turn . . . ?

Industrial Production: -0.6 versus 0.0 expected versus -0.6 prior (from -0.5)

Capacity Utilization: 74.8 versus 75.5 expected versus 75.3 prior (from 75.4)

Missing expectations again with write downs of prior levels. Consider also wholesale and business inventories. Both declined but sales are declining faster. That means manufacturing is really tailing off. The regional PMI reports are important but they are also sentiment surveys based upon feelings versus hard data. Thus far the hard data has not caught up to the sentiment, but of course there is a lag as you have to feel better to have the guts to start producing more.


Consumer Sentiment

Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary April: 89.7 versus 92.0 expected versus 91.0 March

Gallup sentiment: -14, weakest since 11/2015. Outlook is -22, indicating that 59% of the adults feel the economy is worsening.

Higher gas prices were a main component of the Gallup survey and bolsters our belief that one of the few perqs the average citizen got from the recovery is lower gasoline prices thanks to a stronger dollar. Those started to dissipate as the national average for gasoline climbed to $2.11/gallon over the past two weeks.


Costs: More on the CPI

Costs, we are told, are just so low we should all be thankful. Yet the same costs keep rising, e.g. rents (3.7%), education, food (though it took a month off), and healthcare.

The increase in rents alone was more than any gain in disposable income thanks to minimum wage hikes. On top of that you have to add in rising healthcare costs.

Yes, the Affordable Care Act has failed, as most legislation sporting such lofty titles, to deliver affordable care. It is no surprise simply because it defies market principles, yet it always surprises those true believers when the data comes in.

CPI showed medical care costs growing at the fastest pace in 3 years. It is now 2016 and the ACA effectiveness was pushed back time and again, not coming fully effective even yet. Nonetheless, in 2014 most of the provisions became effective. Not surprisingly and as predicted, as soon as the provisions became effective, the backend loaded costs have showed up. Medical care costs are exploding higher, and companies such as THC cannot stay in markets because they cannot charge enough for policies thanks to the 80%/20% payout ratio of payouts to profits the ACA requires.

Is this bad? Not really; it is the plan: put a doomed system in place, then when it fails say 'well, we just have to go to single payer (i.e. the government) systems.



THE MARKET

CHARTS

As with Thursday, no change in relative position. The indices broke higher Wednesday from the two week lateral consolidation below resistance, NASDAQ moving through nearest resistance with DJ30 bumping to make a clean break. Still sitting on top of a two month run and thus far overcoming any selling attempts, even a few distribution sessions the prior two weeks. It would appear the Fed is mightier, for now, than the sell button.

NASDAQ: A pair of doji after breaking past 4820 Wednesday. 5,000 is the next real test if the bids hold. Lots of overhead resistance still, but thus far trusting in the Fed.

DJ30: Broke to a higher closing high Thursday over the November 2015 peak but faded that move slightly by Friday. Still at the top of the range and still no volume with MACD putting in what looks to be a lower high. Technically a folding lawn chair ready to fall in on itself, but thus far with the Fed continually talking up the market, no cigar for the sellers.

SP500: Broke to a higher rally high Wednesday, but that is still well off the December and even higher November 2015 highs (2117 the later, closed Friday at 2080). Low volume, questionable MACD, but as with the other indices, the Fed is providing the boost thus far.

RUTX: Rallied to the 200 day SMA last week and closed just below it Friday. New rally highs for sure but also smack dab in the lower portion of the September through December lateral range. At some pretty serious resistance, but that has not stopped the indices thus far.

SP400: Broke to a higher rally high Wednesday and closed at a higher rally high Friday. 1473 marks the top of the November/December 2015 twin peaks. Closing at 1464.77, SP400 is ready to test the next resistance.

SOX: Broke to a new rally high past 680 and 685 Wednesday but was immediately rejected, gapping lower Thursday and selling further Friday. Not a major rollover, but certainly the buyers left after that resistance break. SOX broke resistance with NASDAQ and SOX has retreated some. Very important to watch its action this week as the market often follows SOX' lead.


LEADERSHIP

Financial: After the false break and drop, financial stocks rebounded on the JPM earnings and are still holding gains. A new group coming up and we are looking at NOAH and WETF this week as possible plays.

Energy: Many of the smaller stocks tested to end last week, ending in great position to move higher, e.g. WLL, UNT. Now we will see how they perform after the OPEC non-deal.

Metals: Steel finished the week well with new breakouts from AKS, SID on the week and good Friday sessions to boot. FCX was solid with a new upside break and CENX (aluminum) looks good as well. Precious metal stocks took a fast drop but are not bad at near support, e.g. NEM.

Biotech/Drugs: Still looking solid overall. CRMD enjoyed a strong week. ZIOP remains strong. CELG, BIIB look ready to try and bounce again.


MARKET STATISTICS

NASDAQ
Stats: -7.67 points (-0.16%) to close at 4938.22
Volume: 1.718B (+2.28%)

Up Volume: 815.12M (+55.51M)
Down Volume: 847.75M (-9.88M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.02 to 1

New Highs: 64 (+8)
New Lows: 22 (+10)

S&P
Stats: -2.05 points (-0.1%) to close at 2080.73
NYSE Volume: 1B (+13.38%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.14 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.26 to 1

New Highs: 74 (-1)
New Lows: 6 (+3)

DJ30
Stats: -28.97 points (-0.16%) to close at 17897.46


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.62; -0.1
VXN: 16.05; -0.55
VXO: 13.87; -0.04

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.06

8 of the last 18 above 1.0. After a spike of several 1.0 sessions, a streak of sub-1.0.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls rebounded back upside after a one-week backfill. Still very confident. Bears no so much so in their downside conviction, falling back to 27.8 from three weeks back. Retreated from well over 35% and still weakening.

Bulls: 45.4 versus 43.3

Bears: 27.8 versus 28.9

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 45.4%
43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%

Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in late 2015 and 2016 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.

Bears: 27.8%
28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5%

Background: Finally back below 35% after spiking to 39.8 three weeks back.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 1.753% versus 1.79%. Faded to the 20 day EMA then bounced sharply Friday, putting in a higher low.

Historical: 1.79% versus 1.76% versus 1.77% versus 1.72% versus 1.72% versus 1.691% versus 1.75% versus 1.72% versus 1.77% versus 1.79% versus 1.77% versus 1.82% versus 1.80% versus 1.88% versus 1.90% versus 1.88% versus 1.94% versus 1.92% versus 1.89% versus 1.90% versus 1.91% versus 1.97% versus 1.966% versus 1.979% versus 1.927% versus 1.88%


EUR/USD: 1.1285 versus 1.1264

Historical: 1.1264 versus 1.1278 versus 1.1389 versus 1.1410 versus 1.1397 versus 1.1370 versus 1.1396 versus 1.13792 versus 1l1392 versus 1.1391 versus 1.1382 versus 1.1339 versus 1.1295 versus 1.1195 versus 1.1178 versus 1.1177 versus 1.1217 versus 1.1243 versus 1.1272 versus 1.1313 versus 1.1227 versus 1.1112 versus 1.1103 versus 1.1149 versus 1.1106 versus 1.1107 versus 1.1017 versus 1.0999 versus 1.0961 versus 1.0865 versus 1.0866 versus 1.0880 versus 1.0940 versus 1.102


USD/JPY: 108.762 versus 109.65. Dollar turned sharply lower Friday after a four session bounce back up to the 10 day EMA.

Historical: 109.65 versus 109.29 versus 108.505 versus 107.95 versus 108.175 versus 108.425 versus 109.84 versus 110.45 versus 111.313 versus 111.620 versus 112.60 versus 112.415 versus 112.71 versus 113.425 versus 113.612 versus 112.83 versus 112.445 versus 112.298 versus 111.90 versus 111.605 versus 111.46 versus 112.58 versus 113.11


Oil: 41.75, -0.90. Oil fell in anticipation of the weekend OPEC meeting. It will likely trade lower on the no-deal outcome.


Gold: 1234.60, +5.30. Gold is fighting to hold up but really suffered Wednesday and Thursday as it dropped back to the 50 day SMA, hanging on to close there Friday. Was looking as if it would pull out of the toppy pattern, but has yet to break free and hold the move.


MONDAY

Oil looks as if it will be under pressure post-OPEC meeting. The Canadian Loonie is down hard versus the dollar, backtracking all of last week's gain. According to those that figure these sort of things, that means oil opens below $39/bbl (closed at 41.75 Friday).

Lower oil used to be considered a good thing but with the overwhelming bulk of quality job creation in the US dependent upon the oil and gas industry, the demise of oil prices and thus the shale fracking industry is a blow to US economic gains. Of course, without those jobs, jobs already on the tail the past 1.5 years, I think the consumer would not mind lower energy prices and a stronger dollar. Now Joe citizen may get a lower dollar and stronger energy prices, that old double whammy.

Weaker oil is imbued by many to mean weaker stocks. Thus if the oil open holds you would expect lower prices Monday in the US as the stock indices again test the Wednesday break higher from the lateral consolidation on the large cap indices.

SOX will be an important indicator as it made higher highs and immediately gave them up. If it falls harder and NASDAQ reverses its breakout over resistance, that means the buyers have to regroup. That gives the sellers an opening to try again. Thus far they have failed to muster lasting strength, but after some distribution sessions the past two weeks, the market is susceptible to selling if the resistance slams the door.

On top of the oil news and the market technical setup the earnings season opens up full throttle. Last week the earnings helped boost the indices past the two week consolidation to higher recovery highs. After the oil deal disappointment (as if that was a surprise?) it looks as if it will take some good earnings to boost the market back up.

For the new week we have a mix of upside and downside. As has been the case, some sectors are getting money pushed their way while others are experiencing money leaving. Overall market direction has been stable, giving trades both ways. After the Doha meeting and combined with earnings, maybe one side will finally win out (the upside is trying, e.g. the Wednesday break higher) here at resistance and we can go one-sided. It does seem apparent that the market is at an important point and set to make an important break. It would appear from a technical view that it would break lower, but with the Fed providing the wind in the sails, it is hard to buck the upside.

Thus we will watch these individual plays and pick up positions accordingly. Still quite a few stocks coming off of rounded bottoms, and those have provided fairly easy money thus far.

Have a great day!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4938.22

Resistance:
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for NASDAQ.
4999 is the October upper gap point
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak

Support:
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4852
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
The 50 day EMA at 4772
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4637 is the February intraday high
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in the selloff.
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
4116 is the October 2014 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2080.73

Resistance:
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 2017
The 200 day SMA at 2014
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows


Dow: Closed at 17,897.46

Resistance:
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015

Support:
The March low at 17,786
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 50 day EMA at 17,282
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,114
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

April 15 - Friday
Empire Manufacturing, April (8:30): 9.6 actual versus 2.3 expected, 0.6 prior
Industrial Productio, March (9:15): -0.6% actual versus 0.0% expected, -0.6% prior (revised from -0.5%)
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 74.8% actual versus 75.5% expected, 75.3% prior (revised from 75.4%)
Michigan Sentiment - Preliminary, April (10:00): 89.7 actual versus 92.0 expected, 91.0 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, February (16:00): $72.0B actual versus -$11.9B prior (revised from -$12.0B)

April 18 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , April (10:00): 59 expected, 58 prior

April 19 - Tuesday
Building Permits, March (8:30): 1200K expected, 1167K prior
Housing Starts, March (8:30): 1170K expected, 1178K prior

April 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/16 (7:00)
Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 5.30M expected, 5.08M prior
Crude Inventories, 04/16 (10:30): 6.634M prior

April 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 04/16 (8:30): 263K expected, 253K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/09 (8:30): 2171K prior
Philadelphia Fed, April (8:30): 9.9 expected, 12.4 prior
FHFA Housing Price I, February (9:00): 0.5% prior
Leading Indicators, March (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 04/16 (10:30): -3 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, April 09, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 4-9-16

* * * *
4/9/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: KORS; XEC
Entry alerts: NKE; SWIR; W
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Friday quieter but even so stocks lose early gains and fight for positive.
- Oil freeze hope, lower dollar keep oil surging. Gee, why aren't stocks?
- Fed chairmen: 'no bubbles here' as stocks rise on QE/Fed promises while
profits fall, economic data declines.
- Market action splitting: volatility, distribution, retail selling, but
money still moving into other areas.
- Earnings season. Expected to fall, but how much will they fall?
- Post-Earnings season: May may be difficult.

The past week was marked by more day to day market volatility as sellers
actually showed up and indeed challenged buyers and the uptrend at a key
resistance level. For just over a week NASDAQ, DJ30, SOX have bumped key
resistance. No decisive moves were made as the indices clearly held their
ground. Some blows landed, however.

The sellers showed their presence, this time for more than just a cameo
appearance. Even Friday stock futures were up but the indices lost the
gains and had to struggle to show any green.

-Sellers managed two distribution sessions on NYSE, making it three such
higher volume selling sessions in the last 7. Not an overwhelming swarm of
selling, but if the coming week shows a couple of quick distribution
sessions, the rally is in jeopardy.

-Oil surged on the week but, while stocks didn't break and roll over, they
did not follow, planting the seed of doubt in those believing the stock/oil
relationship.

-Most importantly, some leadership cracked as retail showed some major
selloffs.

On the other hand, the buy side matched the selling, allowing the indices to
hold their ground and move laterally. A bumpy lateral move at that, but
toward the end of the week it calmed down, the range was still rather
narrow, and the longer they hold the gains and consolidate, that is a win
for the upside. Indeed, what assisted them in holding the upside gains were
sectors getting money shifted their way, e.g. biotechs. Down Friday, but
nonetheless, good patterns ready to continue upside.

The result was a draw by the end of the week with some wrinkles and age
spots showing up on the rally.

SP500 5.69, 0.28%
NASDAQ 2.23, 0.05%
DJ30 35.00, 0.20%
SP400 0.63%
RUTX 0.41%
SOX 0.58%

VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -16%. No major volume so no major buying as the
indices edged out a gain.

A/D: NYSE 3:1, NASDAQ 1.3:1


Another dichotomy brewing?

The action shows the market shifting a bit to the ends of the spectrum.

The indices are at key resistance as noted. Volatility jumped and
distribution appeared. Retail leaders broke.

Then you have money continuing its move into sectors that suffered through
their own bear markets but are trying to turn the corner, e.g. biotechs and
drugs. Metals, materials, industrial equipment, energy, and others,
including retail, did it before. It could simply be that retail is selling
and the money is shifted to biotechs. Possibly, but if so, that is not
necessarily bullish: money leaves one area, goes to another, but no net new
money in the market. Rotation can keep things going for awhile, but new
money eventually has to enter.

What is the line from Lincoln? A house divided against itself cannot stand.
Okay, the context was different from financial markets, but there is a
historical analogy there.

Other major upcoming events.

A constant, a given in this current market environment is the Federal
Reserve. The daily comments of its members continue to impact near term the
market moves. Yellen is still firmly in control and still firmly a dove.
Hell, they had a gathering of all living Federal Reserve chairmen the past
week (Volcker, Greenspan via phone, Bernanke, Yellen) and they all said
'read our lips, no new bubbles.'


'Coo, no bubbles, coo, coo.' She's my replacement?
Where the hell is the exit?

What more could you want? Of course with the exception of Volcker, the
others are primary reasons the US economy is in such dire condition. I am
not going to let Volcker off with a get out of jail card, however. He is
part of the almost 100 year destruction of the US dollar that has seen its
value plunge 93% since the Fed's inception. Washington's dollar would never
have made it across the Potomac today. Nice legacy oh great chair people.





The Fed is so confident all is well an unscheduled meeting is called for
Monday using its 'expedited procedures' rules:



Hey, there are no bubbles, so if the economy is not performing, even if
stock indices are up and pushing toward the old highs, why not more
stimulus? Seriously? Nah. A rate hike then? Heck no. Maybe they are
just planning their next office party.


EARNINGS AHEAD

Earnings. Can't live with them, can't leave them on the curb when you are
done with them. That is an old joke that is a variation of the old saying
about women. I know, how horrible, how sexist. I guess I need to establish
a 'safe zone' now.

[Enter Safe Zone here]

[Exit Safe Zone here]

Okay, earnings. Q1 is up at bat and with the indices at resistance they
could very well provide a serious market catalyst. Expectations are for
earnings to continue lower as Q1 GDP expectations have plummeted. Indeed,
the Atlanta Fed's expectations dropped to 0.1% Friday after the Wholesale
Inventory data was released.

February Wholesale Inventories: -0.5% vs -0.2% expected versus -0.2% prior
(FROM +0.3%!!)

Sales: -0.2% versus -1.9% prior (from -1.2%). Months of declining sales
show that not only are companies not buying, but the fact that inventories
are heading lower AS sales head lower show there is nothing being made
either.

Inventory/Sales Ratio: 1.36 versus 1.31 year/year. Ouch. I smell an
inventory write down coming.

Profits: Tumbling over the past quarter. Earnings will tell more of the
tail but this is likely the last piece of the recession story.


'TIS THE SEASON

April earnings season but earnings is not the focus of this segment. It is
the after April season. Stock moves have seasons as noted Thursday, and the
overall market environment has seasons as well. After earnings there is the
'sell in May and go away' season. Doesn't always hold up and there are
always stocks that move well, but the indices tend to struggle from May into
late summer, punctuated usually with a summer rally.

Of course last year May showed some issues early, but ended higher. Indeed
stocks traded in a volatile range into July before they collapsed. In 2014
stocks started May soft then surged into early July.

So what is the use of the adage? Things turn more volatile, making it
harder for the big funds to sit on their positions without having to hedge,
buy protection, etc. It is more work, it is choppier, and if you get on the
wrong side of the back and forth you can get hurt.

For 2016, after such a large gain in the indices February to early April,
there may be more to that versus years past. Something to watch and
consider as we gauge how earnings season unfolds.



THE MARKET

A back and forth week session to session as volatility increased, some
distribution, but in the end the indices stretched laterally, holding the
moves higher and still working on resistance. Sure they can still fall and
it takes time for a top to form after a big run (the top after the last 2015
run took two months), but hanging onto gains is not bad. With the Fed
apparently ready to back the market because 'there are no bubbles,' the
market may show more staying power than it did when the late 2015 rally ran
out of gas.

CHARTS

All of the charts are the same: rally to next resistance then just over a
week of lateral to slightly lower movement. Very much a normal test of a
rally, and nothing has really changed for the upside. Some distribution as
noted, some more volatility, both suggesting the upside's strength is
ebbing.

Thus, while the test is normal it has a negative overlay not seen as much on
the run. Overall, the sellers are a bit stronger, but there is no knockout
punch yet. They are more into technical boxing than going for the knockout,
doing the work to the body that sets up the eventual fall. Overall I would
say they end up falling from this setup, but you have the Fed, other central
banks (Japan not intervening to undermine the yen and thus helping US
markets), and earnings that could cause some near term upside if they are
better than the declines anticipated.


LEADERSHIP

Financial: Bounced modestly Friday to test the levels broken Thursday.
Looks as if a good downside setup is in place for the likes of C, JPM. MA,
on the other hand, looks to be setting up for a move higher, but then again,
the credit card companies are doing just fine in terms of their charts.

Big Names: FB got slammed as there is talk people are tired of posting
their daily bowel movement schedules or some other equally obnoxious and
uninteresting aspect of their lives. AAPL is testing after a nice move to
the 200 day SMA. GOOG is hanging in a lateral move a la the stock indices.
AMZN is in a nice lateral move. SBUX enjoyed a great week though it was flat
Friday. MSFT held nicely with a 20 day EMA test.

Metals: Still some solid patterns. CENX in its downward wedge. AKS tested
lower to the 20 day EMA but snapped back; nice pennant continues. SID
(steel) surged on the week to a higher high. NEM and other gold stocks
surged.

Energy: Solid week with moves following oil's path. WLL broke higher and
held the move. OII is rebounding. XEC surged to the 200 day SMA. HAL
gapped over the 200 day SMA. APC gapped sharply but not much trade; still
looks like a buy if it can hold.

Retail: Really struggling as KORS, DDS, M down hard. TJX, COST struggling.

Chinese: Still very nice. SINA enjoyed a good week. CTRP bounced Friday.
QIWI still looks super.

Biotechs: Down Friday but good moves up to that point. Indeed the tests
will give some entry possibilities, e.g. KITE, BIIB.


MARKET STATISTICS

NASDAQ
Stats: +2.32 points (+0.05%) to close at 4850.69
Volume: 1.569B (-15.81%)

Up Volume: 847.67M (+459.06M)
Down Volume: 710.91M (-789.09M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.32 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.73 to 1

New Highs: 35 (+7)
New Lows: 26 (-8)

S&P
Stats: +5.69 points (+0.28%) to close at 2047.6
NYSE Volume: 841.7M (-7.81%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.08 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.36 to 1

New Highs: 97 (+24)
New Lows: 16 (0)

DJ30
Stats: +35 points (+0.2%) to close at 17576.96


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 15.36; -0.8
VXN: 18.48; -0.14
VXO: 15.48; -1.02

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; -0.02

8 of the last 13 above 1.0. If the market was at a low this would be
bullish. After a big run it loses its efficacy.

1.0+ are starting to mount a lead over the sub-1.0. As noted before, this
is more likely due to buying protection for long stock positions than
downside speculation.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls rebounded back upside after a one-week backfill.
Still very confident. Bears no so much so in their downside conviction,
falling back to 27.8 from three weeks back. Retreated from well over 35%
and still weakening.

Bulls: 45.4 versus 43.3

Bears: 27.8 versus 28.9

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 45.4%
43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7%
versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6%
versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus
45.4%

Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in late 2015 and 2016 since the
2008 and 2009 market plummet.

Bears: 27.8%
28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7%
versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus
35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8%
versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus
31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus
26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5%

Background: Finally back below 35% after spiking to 39.8 three weeks back.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 1.72% versus 1.691%. Off Friday but a big week. Somewhat
volatile day to day as well, but a clear trend higher in prices, lower in
yields.

Historical: 1.691% versus 1.75% versus 1.72% versus 1.77% versus 1.79%
versus 1.77% versus 1.82% versus 1.80% versus 1.88% versus 1.90% versus
1.88% versus 1.94% versus 1.92% versus 1.89% versus 1.90% versus 1.91%
versus 1.97% versus 1.966% versus 1.979% versus 1.927% versus 1.88% versus
1.82% versus 1.91% versus 1.88% versus 1.83% versus 1.84% versus 1.82%
versus 1.74% versus 1.757% versus 1.70%


EUR/USD: 1.1397 versus 1.1370. Weeklong lateral move over the 10 day EMA
that consolidates the move to a higher recover high over the February peak.
At resistance from late 2015.

Historical: 1.1370 versus 1.1396 versus 1.13792 versus 1l1392 versus 1.1391
versus 1.1382 versus 1.1339 versus 1.1295 versus 1.1195 versus 1.1178 versus
1.1177 versus 1.1217 versus 1.1243 versus 1.1272 versus 1.1313 versus 1.1227
versus 1.1112 versus 1.1103 versus 1.1149 versus 1.1106 versus 1.1107 versus
1.1017 versus 1.0999 versus 1.0961 versus 1.0865 versus 1.0866 versus 1.0880
versus 1.0940 versus 1.102


USD/JPY: 108.175 versus 108.425. Down yet again as the dollar bombed lower
versus the yen for the second week. When will Japan intervene? What deal
did the Fed and the BOJ strike?

Historical: 108.425 versus 109.84 versus 110.45 versus 111.313 versus
111.620 versus 112.60 versus 112.415 versus 112.71 versus 113.425 versus
113.612 versus 112.83 versus 112.445 versus 112.298 versus 111.90 versus
111.605 versus 111.46 versus 112.58 versus 113.11


Oil: 39.72, +2.46. Surging off the 50 day SMA test with a solid four
session bounce. Higher low put in, oil still moving higher. With the
dollar down hard and still weak, that sadly, makes sense.

Gold: 1243.80, +6.30. Gold managed to hold the 50 day EMA twice the past
three weeks and put in a solid bounce from that level this week. Still
looks toppish with a head and shoulders, but many times those setup but
never break lower.


MONDAY

Some volatility showed up, some distribution as well, all at resistance.
With the overall large rounded market top of the past 16 months that
suggests the rally is at least weakening. It is testing the move, and
sellers are taking something of a shot. Not a cutthroat selloff, but
showing more gumption than they have had.

Holding the gains into earnings may not be that great of a near term
technical maneuver. If there is disappointment, gains are dumped. If there
is some selling this week ahead of results, a bit of cushion is there to
rebound.

Indices at resistance after big runs. The Fed and central banks backing
markets. Earnings that are expected to be lower. Some emboldened sellers
but not nearly enough to break the market, just take down some sectors that
enjoyed big rallies. Earnings season itself that is weeks long now.

The point: it may take awhile to get to the next real move. Even if there
is some selling, that doesn't mean it is a new dive lower. That seems to be
the either/or game that most are playing right now: new highs or new lows.
Often things are somewhere in between, but most of the time the market is
not in the situation of a 5 year run based on stimulus, stimulus is ended,
central banks are still acting as if they will act again, economic data
worsening, corporate profits worsening . . you get the picture.

So we look at individual stocks and try to pick them off on good technical
moves. The volatility makes it harder. GS didn't work nor did the other
financials despite good setups and initial moves. On the other hand energy
and biotechs are working upside while downside plays such as KORS returned
well.

It is an inflection period given near resistance. Given the overall rounded
market top. Given the indecision about how bad profits will be in Q1.
Given Q1 GDP could be negative. Given the Fed and the world central banks
and their agenda to keep stocks higher without new amounts of US stimulus if
possible. In that situation you take the 'gimmes' such as KORS, but realize
that with sentiment on edge, even good setups may not behave as they should.

We plan on still looking at individual patterns that make sense where the
Fed is and where the market is overall. We have some index plays in the
opposite direction ready to go. We will move into positions as they show
good moves but not whole bore; too much volatility, too many trigger happy
people out there right now. Be patient, don't feel the need to be as
aggressive. Trade what you believe in, trade it well. If you have doubts
or questions don't do it or get out of the trade. Confidence is important
and at times such as these if the volatility is wearing on you, don't do it.
There WILL be much easier times to trade ahead. The KEY is to not just
check out but to be ready when those times show up. That way you are ready
to get on the bus at the bus stop, not those people chasing it.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4850.69

Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 4855
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak

Support:
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
The 50 day EMA at 4742
4637 is the February intraday high
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in
the selloff.
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
4116 is the October 2014 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2047.60

Resistance:
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2014
2011 is the September prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2005
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the
August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows


Dow: Closed at 17,576.96

Resistance:
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month
trading range
June 2015 low at 17,715
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak

Support:
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 17,165
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,115
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to
a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce
peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

April 8 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, February (10:00): -0.5% actual versus -0.2%
expected, -0.2% prior (revised from 0.3%)

April 12 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., March (8:30): -0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.1% prior
Treasury Budget, March (14:00): $52.9B prior

April 13 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/09 (7:00): 2.7% prior
Core PPI, March (8:30): 0.0% prior
PPI, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.2% prior
Retail Sales, March (8:30): -0.1% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, March (8:30): -0.1% prior
Core PPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Retail Sales, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, March (8:30): 0.4% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, February (10:00): -0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 04/09 (10:30): -4.937M prior

April 14 - Thursday
CPI, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.2% prior
Core CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Initial Claims, 04/09 (8:30): 268K expected, 267K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/02 (8:30): 2191K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 04/09 (10:30): 12 bcf prior

April 15 - Friday
Empire Manufacturing, April (8:30): 2.3 expected, 0.6 prior
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 76.7% prior
Industrial Production, March (9:15): 0.0% expected, -0.5% prior
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 75.5% expected, 76.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Preliminary, April (10:00): 92.0 expected, 91.0 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, February (16:00): -$12.0B prior

End part 1 of 3
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