Sunday, August 05, 2012

So This Was a 'Strong' Jobs Report?


- It's Friday so another triple digit Dow 30 gain.
- Stocks up early on more Draghi comments (the audacity of bluster?), juiced even more by jobs report.
- So this was a 'strong' jobs report? Conflicting 'support' as to just what this report means.
- Jobs report headline shows more service jobs, higher unemployment, much manipulation.
- Service ISM holds above 50 but employment drops sharply. How does employment then lead jobs higher in the jobs report?
- The Friday/Monday dance: 6 consecutive Fridays of triple digit gains, 9 consecutive Mondays of losses.

Draghi shows vorace.

Courage? Guts? Foolhardiness? All were used (at least by us) to describe Mr. Draghi on Friday. Yes, yes I know that all of the mass media focused on the jobs report as 'the' news of the day. But long before the jobs report was released, futures were sharply higher; sharply higher. The jobs report added some hot sauce to the morning omelet, but pre-market it was the condiment because Mr. Draghi was back at it, promising it all.

ECB officials "are ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro" Mr. Draghi reiterated. Futures were up sharply on this news. The lion's share of the pre-market gains were in place by the time the jobs report was announced. Indeed they backed off just ahead of the jobs report on a bit of nervousness. Futures gained 4% pre-market from the Thursday close ahead of the jobs report. At the market open futures added 0.8% to that prior gain. Some salsa, but it was definitely mild versus hot.

Back to Draghi. If Germany wants him to pipe down Merkel et al are not as typically vocal and rapier-like in the response. If they are privately telling Draghi to put a lid on it, Draghi is not listening. If so, he has what the Greeks call thrausos, or guts.

Mr. Bond you have what the Greeks call thrausos - - guts. So does he.

The market took it as Draghi having his way. Instead of sitting by himself scribbling out 'plans' for saving the euro that have no hope of implementation, the lack of forceful rebukes or denials sure makes it look as if Draghi has some substance to his dramatic comments. So maybe he won't come out of the toilet with his . . . well, we went there Thursday night.

'I don't want my brother coming out of that toilet with just his **** in his hand.'

Maybe he is bringing a gun to a gunfight as Nitty did after his assassin was run off with just a knife.

Jobs played their role, or did they? Strong maybe for Europe, but for the US?

Don't get me wrong, jobs played their role. The 'beat' was good enough to gin up futures even more and give the morning rally staying power through the session. One wonders, however, what the result would have been without Draghi priming the pump.

Was the jobs number strong enough to push the market? 163,000 jobs topped expectations, but it is hardly a 'strong' report as some forgetful commentators stated. Maybe for Europe, but not the US. And the gains? They were gratis huge, unprecedented seasonal adjustments that swung jobs from negative to positive.

Moreover, the unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. Could a Department of Labor assist leading to a rising jobs number have offset an increasing unemployment rate on its own, or would it have taken a non-farms jobs stumble to put the Fed back on the table and rally stocks? Friday the outward appearances suggested the data was strong enough to keep the Fed off the QE button and that was okay with the market, though the European stimulus picture looked markedly more likely with the unopposed Draghi comments.

Stocks started higher, already deep in the black thanks to Draghi and the additional jobs report topping. They gapped and added to the gains all session. In so doing the DJ30 logged its sixth consecutive triple digit Friday, and while it could not put in a higher rally high, SP500 did so.

SP500 1.90%; NASDAQ 2.00%; DJ30 1.69%; SP600 2.57%; SOX 2.26%

A nice surge across the board no doubt, but with only SP500 making a higher high thus far, Monday becomes all the more interesting. While the Dow has logged six consecutive triple digit Fridays it has also logged 9 consecutive down Mondays, some of them pretty severe. Will DJ30, NASDAQ, and SP600 follow this coming week with higher highs of their own or will they stumble? Thus far the indications are solid for the upside, and even if there is a Monday stumble, those stumbles have provided upside opportunity for the past two months.


This proves very interesting, particularly the commentary on the day.

Dollar. 1.2375 versus 1.2172 euro. The dollar was down sharply. It broke down to the lower part of the range of the last week. It broke below the 50 day EMA and closed near the session low. Why? It seems strange. The dollar should be up against the euro if the ECB is going into stimulus and the US is not. It would be stronger because it would not be devalued. Perhaps there is less of a need for a safe haven, but if the data really means that the US is stronger, the dollar should be rising.

Bonds. 1.56% versus 1.48% 10 year US Treasury. A big decline. It gapped lower to the 50 day EMA. While this is not a breakdown, it is certainly not a move higher in its uptrend. That would make some sense if Europe will recover. If that is the theory under ECB doing something, then there would be less need of a safe haven. There is less chance of the Fed buying bonds because it would be unneeded if the Europeans will actually act. The bonds made a little bit of sense.

Gold. 1,609.30, +18.60. Gold closed higher. It was up premarket, and then it was down premarket after the US jobs report. Then it reversed sharply. There were some strange things happening. Below there is a pair of headlines on Bloomberg for both the move in gold and for oil's move on Friday.

Oil. 91.40, +4.27. It was without a doubt a surge higher on oil.

Looking at the charts, there is a nice surge back up through the 50 day EMA by gold. Oil is surging up off of the apparent break lower on Thursday. Nice, strong reversals. But let's get back to these headlines: "Oil surges the most in a month as the US adds jobs, services expand." That implies that, because the US data is so strong, there will be more need for oil. Look what they say in the subheading: "The service industry expansion and the payrolls climb bolsters optimism about economic strength in the world's biggest crude-consuming country."

Now look at gold: "Gold climbs the most in a week as US unemployment rate increases. Gold futures jump most in more than a week after reports showed that the US jobless rate unexpectedly increased to a five-month high." That suggests that the economy is not so good, that the jobs report caused gold to rally and therefore the Fed must be back on the table and ready to issue Quantitative Easing. But oil surged because the US economy is growing so fast that we do not need any Quantitative Easing. This is from the same financial news service on the same page discussing commodities. Could it be that oil surged simply because there might be a hurricane in the Gulf and because the dollar was heading lower? It then takes more dollars to buy a barrel. That is very likely so. Maybe there was something in there with respect to the economic data in the US as well, but there are other factors at work.

What about gold? If the US economy is so strong, as the oil article indicates, there would be no need for Quantitative Easing from the Fed and then no pressure to bring gold higher. Maybe the ECB's actions have something to do with that. Maybe that would help with the inflation worries, but gold would not necessarily be a safe haven if the economies were going to come up roses.

The point is, this shows you that the news media does not even have a consistent story as to why these markets are moving as they do. They fail the "follow your own logic" test that some of our politicians fail. It is okay for gays to speak out about their rights and their ability to marry -- and that is fine. They are free to talk. At the same time, you have those like the Chick-Fil-A CEO who are opposed to that and also voice their opinion. It is just as much his right as it is anyone else's, and a politician cannot come out and say, "They can speak, but you cannot." You need consistent logic and you need to apply it evenly across the board or else you lose credibility.

I see the gold and oil rise this way: The jobs report was not strong, no matter how you want to spin it. Even if you take the 163K jobs as the gospel and true read of how many jobs were produced, that is a terrible jobs report for an economy that is supposedly -- as told by our leaders --so far into the recovery. If you look further into the numbers, they are basically an arbitrary revision (seasonal adjustments, as it were) that took a negative number and flipped it positive above expectations. Some people in the BLS decided to use statistically aberrant judgment to make a better report.

With the jobs report still in the tank, with the ISM negative for the second month, and with factory orders negative now, I think gold and oil (and commodities in general) see that there will be extra stimulus from the ECB and ultimately from the Fed. Of course the Fed will not do it now. But as the data comes out -- it may not be in September -- but some said that they have already taken it off for 2012. It may not be the case. Things may get so slow in the fall that the Fed has to do something right after the election.



Volume. NASDAQ, -5.5%, 1.7B; NYSE -9.4%, 686M. Friday we saw volume back off. You never like to see volume decline on a move up. But this move is showing good technical action otherwise, and volumes have been low all along. Plus it is a Friday in the summer, so there is always lower trade. We have to discount the lower volume somewhat, but it is something to note and log in the back of your mind. We are having a bit weaker rise, and just so happens that it is coming as the SP500 breaks to a new rally high and is closing in on those prior peaks. That is an important level to watch because volume is tailing off, and the internals are weakening. It can find resistance there.

Breadth. NASDAQ 3.33:1; NYSE 4.75:1. Aided by that tremendous move in the small cap index. No new high on this rally, but a strong move nonetheless. Breadth was solid.


SP500. SP500 broke to a new higher high in this rally. It was number five. Higher lows and higher highs as it moves on toward that 1400 level, striking 1394 on the high. It is close. 1391 is the close, and that puts it 24 or 25 points from this intraday high in early May. That is your initial target. Perhaps it can do more. Everything suggests that it wants to ruin higher at this point.

DJ30. DJ30 was unable to make a new high -- or at least hold one. It is close, knocking at the door. It has its higher lows in place, so it is ready to make the move. Maybe it will put in a bit lower Monday and use that to bounce to the upside.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ did not put in a higher high either, but it is right at the top of its range. It gapped to the upside. With a gap we could not do a lot with our QID. We decide to leave it because Fridays have been big up and Mondays have been big down. We will see in the coming week if NASDAQ can make the break to that new high. That will be one of the important moves. We saw some money moving into tech last week. We said they were shaping up better, and it looked like there was accumulation. Now we will see if that accumulation turns into actual upside movement.

SP600. The small caps were stellar. Big blast off of the 200 day EMA, and they held most of the gain. They moved back up into an important range that it traded in from February into May before it broke down into that June low. It is making its comeback, and it is putting in a higher low. But it has a series of two lower highs, and it has not even busted over the last lowest high in this move. But you could say it is trying to form a pennant or a triangle. No doubt the bounce off of the 200 day EMA and putting in a higher low is a positive.

SOX. The SOX was on the move. It gapped higher, but it tapped the 200 day EMA and stalled there. It faded back modestly into the close. It, too, is right at the June and early July highs. Top of its range, my friends. We will see if it holds on. We may adjust our buy point on the SMH downside play to be ready in case there is a rollover. It does not like there is going to be a rollover at this point. The strength is solid for whatever reason. The market is showing good technical action with higher highs and higher lows, and we are not the ones to argue with the wisdom of the market. It is the market; it is the aggregate of all the thoughts, fears, hopes and dreams put into the future. So we go with what the market shows. We do not want to chase the bus, which we were not going to do on Friday. We want to pick our shots. When they are available, then we can step in, but we do not want to get caught in a move that has already run a long way and then wants to reverse.


Technology. AAPL was up again. It seems to be the leader in the market. Techs overall enjoyed a decent day. JNPR was up. CRUS has enjoyed great strength . It gapped higher on earnings, and it was up again on Friday. Technology continues to attract dollars. We just want to pick those stocks that are in position to move that we can make money off of versus chasing the bus. RVBD is another that could put in a good move to the upside.

Manufacturing. There were some industrial stocks that looked pretty sharp on the day. UTX is trying to turn the corner and make a move higher. JOYG is still moving laterally. It has not made the defining move yet, but it continues to stretch laterally. We will see if it can make a break higher. We are getting some activity and interest in these stocks, and they are moving to the upside. MMM was moving laterally. A good gap on the day. It may try to make a new break to the upside as well. There is some life, no question.

Financial. Financials were kind of a letdown. Not all across the board, but they just did not support great moves. JPM was up 2.6%, but it still has work to do. MS was up 5%, but the pattern still has to finish shaping up. There are other regional banks that were moving well. TCBI was one. It was not a washout by any means, but it just was not as great a move for financials as you would think, perhaps with what the market was showing overall.

Drugs/Medical. As strong as the day was, there was not an abandonment of the drugs or medical devices. MDCO bounced nicely to the upside. BRLI gapped and ran. It was a juggernaut from the open, and it never really gave us a chance. We did not want to chase buses on Friday, so we will see if we get a bit of a comeback on Monday that gives us an opening.

This was a strong day even for what have been defensive stocks in the market. That was a bit worrisome. Why are these stocks doing well? Maybe everyone is just throwing money at everything out there, so the rising tide just lifted all boats. We will see. The defensive stocks were getting money when they have been losing money as the growth areas of the market were gaining.

In any event, we do have areas that show money coming their way. We will see if we can use them in the coming week -- maybe on a test early in the week -- to pick up good upside positions for a continued move.



July payrolls 'surge' to 163K. Do they? Do they really?

Do they Emily. Do they really? Robert Hartley from 'The Bob Newhart' show

More but still weak payrolls, 42 months of 8+% unemployment, but that does not tell the story.

Nonfarm Payrolls, July (8:30): 163K actual versus 100K expected, 64K prior (revised from 80K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, July (8:30): 172K actual versus 105K expected, 73K prior (revised from 84K)
Unemployment Rate, July (8:30): 8.3% actual versus 8.2% expected, 8.2% prior
Hourly Earnings, July (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, July (8:30): 34.5 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior

Non-Farm: Non-adjusted jobs added actually declined from June to July (133,082 June versus 132,868 July), and overall jobs fell by 1.248M. So how do you get a 163,000 number? You adjust by adding 377,000 as a seasonal adjustment, the largest seasonal adjustment that we can find for the month of July.

Then the BLS factored in, as it always does, the birth/death adjustment to the number to account for the change in population. In July 2011 this added 5K, very similar to the 6K in July 2010. This July in a hotly contested Presidential election? The BLS added 52K, a factor of 10, a 1000% increase year over year.

Total jobs plucked out of the air that were statistical aberrations solely at the discretion of unelected government officials with a vested interest in election outcomes: +429,000.

Full time jobs lost to part-time: Those underemployed, wanting more work along with those wanting any work rose to 15%. U6.

Unemployment rate rises even as worker pool falls: Jobs lost overrun workers lost.

Participation Rate: 63.7% versus 63.8% June
Labor force fell by 150,000.
Hiring declined by 195,000.

What does this mean? Think of the Olympics and the boxing events. Unlike gymnastics that totally revamped its scoring mechanism to deductions from the maximum allowable points for the difficulty of an event due to massive 'hometowning' by eastern European countries against basically all other countries, boxing maintains the same scoring system where judges award points for legal blows landed. That leaves a massive grey area as to what was a legitimate punch versus a glancing blow that should not be scored.

In other words, if a judge doesn't want a boxer to win, he or she can basically award points for technically non-punches. Saw this happen, again, today to a US fighter who beat up the opponent in the last round so bad, that when the results were read the referee, based upon the fight he just saw, raised the US fighter's hand first, had to do a double take at the 'officials,' and then raised the other fighter's hand.

This is what happened with the July jobs report. A pre-determined outcome was sought, seasonal adjustments WELL OUTSIDE of the standard deviations (10x for the birth/death) were made, and the DESIRED result was reached.

This is UNDERSCORED by the household survey the unemployment rate is calculated upon showed the opposite direction of the numbers AND the large downward revision in June's number. Remember, revisions are more important and they are showing a continuing slowdown.

With the weaker overall economic data, how can a LAGGING indicator be moving higher first?

ISM Services, July (10:00): 52.6 actual versus 52.3 expected, 52.1 prior

Key point: July services EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTS at 49.3 versus 52.3.

Reconcile this with the Non-Farm payrolls report where SERVICES added the most jobs (91%)!

The private report shows services jobs contracting in July. The government report revised a jobs loss to a jobs gain, and picked services to do it. Looks as if it picked the wrong area to add the jobs as the private sector report released the same day says services lost jobs in the month.


'Remember Jerry, it's not a lie if you believe it.' - - George Costanza

Referee raises US fighter's hands in victory, then takes a double take at the judges.
Later, however, officials overturned the judges' ruling. Unfortunately, there is no one but the US voter to overturn this government's fast and loose play with data and the truth.



VIX. The VIX gapped lower on Friday, and sharply so. That brings it down to just below a level where the SP500 peaked in late April. Watch this late-April level. You can see where volatility has just beaten at this point. Now look at the SP500. That is when it peaked its move of late April and sold off in the run down to the June low that started the current rally. A very important point, wouldn't you say? As SP500 breaks to a new rally high, it is now the fifth higher high on this move. It is indeed approaching that 1400-1415 level that I have talked about as our target for this move. It is our non-Fed-stimulus target. If there is stimulus, it would likely blow through it. But without Fed stimulus, this is our target. Look where it peaked last time and sold, and look where it is now.

Flipping back to the VIX, it is right down at the level in late April where the market peaked and sold off and VIX rallied. That makes it an interesting point to watch. It is not dispositive in and of itself; it never is. It has hit these levels before. It undercut these levels in March. The market can still rally from here without selling. Of course, if it would rally it would not be selling, would it? But you get the point. Just because VIX is here, the market can still rally. The VIX can go lower down to these March levels, which are another good point and a half. If it does that, the market can rally right up probably to 1415 or maybe even the prior high. Without anything else from the US, it may just run into trouble.

VIX: 15.64; -1.93
VXN: 17.46; -1.62
VXO: 14.77; -2.08

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.1

Bulls versus Bears

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 39.4% versus 40.4% versus 43.6%. Bulls fade further though at a slower pace. The irony is the market continues putting in higher lows and higher highs, showing good technical action, as the upside faithful thin. The market volatility has taken a toll on investors who don't watch or understand the trends, and as the case often is, just as the market turned they are turning bearish. Undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June. You would expect it to rise and it has. Still not at a dangerous level, just working as it should. As noted, hit 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 27.7% versus 26.6% versus 24.5% before that. After being locked at 24.5% for more than a month, bears are rising, feeling their oats a bit with the frustration some are feeling from the volatility even if SP500 is trending higher. Starting back toward the 35% level after falling short on the last run higher. Still quite a way to go before bearishness gets bullish for the market, but it is rising even as the market rises, still a good contrary indication. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +58.13 points (+2%) to close at 2967.9
Volume: 1.712B (-5.52%)

Up Volume: 1.42B (+824.27M)
Down Volume: 304.48M (-895.52M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.33 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.32 to 1

New Highs: 69 (+44)
New Lows: 49 (-42)


Stats: +25.99 points (+1.9%) to close at 1390.99
NYSE Volume: 686M (-9.38%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.75 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.68 to 1

New Highs: 209 (+105)
New Lows: 18 (-46)


Stats: +217.29 points (+1.69%) to close at 13096.17
Volume: 112M shares Friday versus 112M shares Thursday.


Next week there is more economic data, but it is more on the light side and not as intense as this past week. The big stuff is Consumer Credit. That will be important. Initial Claims on Thursday will be important because that will be the next week where we do not have the seasonal adjustments coming into the play. That put a lot more jobs apparently out there -- or at least not lost -- versus what was actually the case. Other than that, it is pretty light. Plenty of earnings still, so we will get more influence from that, but it will be one of those times where we just have the good old market technicals starting to take over the action as the news and earnings leave something of void after the onslaught of the past couple of weeks.

As noted, the market has been down for nine consecutive Mondays. It has been up the prior six consecutive Fridays. The old "Buy on Monday and sell on Friday" adage is still in play. You buy low on Monday when things sell off, and then you can sell higher on Friday. Of course that is really simplistic. Some days, like this week, we have sold off through Thursday before it decides to rally, and then it just barely made positive on the week. We will see if we can get a little bit better than just the very vague adage. Maybe we get a pullback on Monday where SP500 tests the break to the new high. Maybe it wants to spend all Monday down. Maybe wants to rebound afterward. We think we are going to get that opportunity. While it may not be as big as it has been on other weeks with the drops, we may get a little pullback that lets us get into some positions that gapped and ran on Friday. We really did not want to chase those, particularly given the Friday and Monday action of the past couple of months. We have very good technical market action with higher lows and higher highs. It is number five on the higher highs on the SP500 right now.

The question is whether it will be able to drag the NASDAQ and the Dow, and not to mention the SP600, to higher highs. The Dow is right there, and the NASDAQ is not far away. With the SP500 looking so solid, the off-the-cuff answer is: Sure. It will be able to at least drag the Dow, and most likely the NASDAQ, to the upside. But how much after that? Without Fed stimulus, is it going to be able to move to a new post bear market high, or will the 1415 intraday high from early May that we have been using as our rough target for this move -- sans Fed action -- will it be enough to carry it over that, or will it fade?

I still think that we have to plan on it running out of steam. We have had a good rally to the upside. There is nothing new added. The economic data is really not better, even though it appeared to be better in some reports. Here and there we saw a bit better data. The weekly jobs reports were bogus. It was all auto adjustments that really did not occur, so it gave false higher readings. The jobs report was really a jobs decline. There is just monkeying around with the data, and that is horrible. It gives a skewed view in an election year, but that is nothing new. The government always plays with the data, and only fools believe what the government is telling them rather than looking at what the actual, factual data says and then drawing the real conclusions versus the fiction that the government wants you to draw.

In sum, while the market remains technically positive, it is getting closer to our initial target. I am not going to say that this level at 1415 on SP500 is definitively the top. I cannot too that. We just want to be aware of it and make our plays with that knowledge in the background. Then if we do see trouble, we will know to take some gain off of the table. Technically the market looks good. It is moving higher. We have upside positions that are taking advantage of it. We could very easily get a pullback on Monday that sets up new buy points. If we get it, we will be trying to take advantage of that. If it rolls over, obviously we will let some of our downside run. We have some others that we are looking at, maybe the SMH, that we can play to the downside.

We have to be ready, although I think there is less likelihood of an immediate downturn of substance versus just a test of the break by SP500 to the new rally high on Friday. Often we get that Monday-morning test that turns into a Tuesday and Wednesday test. But this time I do not think it will be that severe. We think we will get a test, and we will just use that as an opportunity to pick up some upside positions for a resumption of the move to the upside.

I will see you on Monday morning. Have a great weekend!

Support and resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2967.90

2988 is the July 2012 high
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3024 is the gap point from early May
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low

2962 is the April 2012 low
2950 is the mid-April closing low
2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2910 is the March 2012 low
The 50 day EMA at 2909
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2866 is the July 2012 closing low
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2840
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ

S&P 500: Closed at 1390.99

1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

1378 is the February 2012 peak
1375 is the early July 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1363.46 is June 2012 high
1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1354
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325 is the July 2012 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1322
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high

Dow: Closed at 13,096.17
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak

13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,785
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 12,584
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

Personal Income, June (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Personal Spending, June (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
PCE Prices - Core, June (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q2 (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
Case-Shiller 20-city, May (9:00): -0.7% actual versus -1.8% expected, -1.9% prior
Chicago PMI, July (9:45): 53.7 actual versus 52.5 expected, 52.9 prior
Consumer Confidence, July (10:00): 65.9 actual versus 61.0 expected, 62.7 prior (revised from 62.0)

August 1 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 07/28 (7:00): 0.2% actual versus 0.9% prior
ADP Employment Change, July (8:15): 163K actual versus 125K expected, 172K prior (revised from 179K)
ISM Index, July (10:00): 49.8 actual versus 50.1 expected, 49.7 prior
Construction Spending, June (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.6% prior (revised from 0.9%)
Crude Inventories, 07/28 (10:30): -6.522M actual versus 2.717M prior
Auto Sales, July (14:00): 4.9M prior
Truck Sales, July (14:00): 6.1M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, July (14:15): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

August 2 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, July (7:30): -44.5% actual versus -9.5% prior
Initial Claims, 07/28 (8:30): 365K actual versus 365K expected, 357K prior (revised from 353K)
Continuing Claims, 07/21 (8:30): 3272K actual versus 3298K expected, 3291K prior (revised from 3287K)
Factory Orders, June (10:00): -0.5% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%)

August 3 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, July (8:30): 163K actual versus 100K expected, 64K prior (revised from 80K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, July (8:30): 172K actual versus 105K expected, 73K prior (revised from 84K)
Unemployment Rate, July (8:30): 8.3% actual versus 8.2% expected, 8.2% prior
Hourly Earnings, July (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, July (8:30): 34.5 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
ISM Services, July (10:00): 52.6 actual versus 52.3 expected, 52.1 prior

August 7 - Tuesday
Consumer Credit, June (15:00): $10.0B expected, $17.1B prior

August 8 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/04 (7:00): 0.2% prior
Productivity-Preliminary, Q2 (8:30): 1.5% expected, -0.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs -Pr, Q2 (8:30): 0.4% expected, 1.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/04 (10:30): -6.522M prior

August 9 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/04 (8:30): 375k expected, 365K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/28 (8:30): 3290K expected, 3272K prior
Trade Balance, June (8:30): -$47.5B expected, -$48.7B prior
Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior

August 10 - Friday
Export Prices ex-ag., July (8:30): -1.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, July (8:30): -0.3% prior
Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -$129.4B prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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