Happy Memorial Day!
The 'magnificent anachronism.' If Patton was out of his time in the 1940's, my goodness what would the General think today?
On Friday as I watched the market chop around and do nothing, I noted that the classic movie channel is playing all the great war shows that have come out over the years. One of my favorites is Patton. I was wondering what Patton, the "magnificent anachronism," would think about the present day. If he was out of his time in the 1940's, how far out would he be today? What would he think about our inability to deal with the likes of Iran or North Korea? Our inability or unwillingness to control our borders? Our inability to rein in spending? The insights of men such as Patton would be very interesting to hear today. But, of course, I digress.
The market was worried about Greece, as usual. If not Greece, then it was Spain. There were refunding issues today. There was concern that Spain would not be able to meet its cash needs. In fact, one of its regions said it needed a bailout. If they are going to bail out the Bankia, their major bank, they said they needed a bailout as well. Of course, everything is okay because the eurozone is in agreement about what to do. Italy's Monty said that most leaders of European countries actually favor the euro bond. That was not necessarily the case because Jean-Claude Juncker said that the idea of a euro bond did not have much support inside the EU. So you can see what the problem was with the market. If they cannot figure things out in Europe, then the markets cannot figure things out either.
European markets were flat to down, and the U.S. followed suit. Futures were all around, and then they chopped through the morning. NASDAQ tried to lead a rally into the early afternoon, but that failed and stocks closed mixed. Yes, they came back late off of the lows, but it was nothing impressive.
SP500, -0.22%; NASDAQ, -0.07; Dow, -0.6%; SP600, +0.09%; SOX, +1.37%
Well, break out the champagne and caviar because we are... going nowhere? If you look at the SP500, NASDAQ, DJ30, or the SP600, they all went nowhere below the 10 day EMA. They bounced on Monday and did finish up for the week, for the first time in three weeks, but they did not make any major progress. The lowest possible resistance is holding the indices in check.
I talked about the quality of the move on Thursday night, throwing out quotes from the Kingdom of Heaven movie, but you can also look at it the other way. The market sold off for three weeks, it rebounded on the week. It could not punch through the 10 day EMA, but it had enough news to sink it right back down and actually have it rollover and sell off, but it did not. While this may not be a blinding surge to the upside, every time the market has reached lower, the buyers have come back in to hold it up. This was certainly no answer to the puzzle on Friday. It was just a throwaway day. No volume, no movement up or down. We will see the resolution next week, but it certainly was not all negatives because the market did not sell off when it had the chance. In fact, it held up.
The other markets held their trend for the week, though there were some changes or suggestions of change that we may see something more substantial next week.
Dollar. 1.2513 verses 1.2535 euro. The dollar continued to the upside. A strong upside week. Indeed, it is the fourth straight upside week for the dollar. It has gained against the euro; it has gained against the yen; it has gained against pretty much everything out there because China is starting to struggle. I would say China could be in recession already. Brazil is having all kinds of problems, and India is not immune either. When you throw Europe on top of it, we have problems everywhere. While we have them here in the U.S., at least we are still managing to scratch out positive economic growth for now. That means people are putting their dollars or pounds, euros, drachmas, etc. into the U.S. dollar.
Bonds. 1.74% versus 1.77% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds had some big auctions this week. They were up modestly to end the week. It has been a back and forth session with bonds every day. Up and down, but it has formed a nice pennant after a solid run to the upside. This is a bullish consolidation of a nice move. We have a breakout and a run higher. Now it is setting up for a new break to the upside. Bond markets around the world, particularly the United States and Germany, are screaming of some problems. We know there are problems in Europe, but there are problems elsewhere, as I will discuss later.
Where are the people?
I discussed a lot of that last night with the ghost cities in China as well as the ghost sectors of cities such as in Beijing. They want to build more and "invest" more into infrastructure, but they have more than they can use right now. They could film some really freaky science fiction shows there, like something involving a neutron bomb. They are beautiful, brand new, and state of the art. But as they said in Blazing Saddles, "Where are the people?" They built that whole town of Rock Ridge, but no one was there. Very Chinese-like. How futuristic for Mel Brooks to look down the road and see that there would be other ghost towns. He just did not realize they would be in China. Kind of funny that railroad workers helped build Rock Ridge as well. There is your tie-in. But I digress. Bonds showed that there is trouble in River City, Rock Ridge, China, or wherever you want to look. Even though bonds were not up on the week, they are consolidating for a new move to the upside.
Gold. 1,568.80, +9.00. Gold was up on the day. It had been up much higher intraday, but it gave back some ground. It is trying to show a little reversal of its fortunes. It has been selling since late February after breaking out of its downside channel. It has moved down along the channel and has set up another channel. It is a channel on top of a channel. One channel it broke from, and now it is doing the same thing. It is at support from other price lows from 2011 as well. It looks as if it is trying to put in a double bottom for a new break to the upside.
Oil. 90.87, +0.21. Oil was up modestly, but it is still struggling. Oil has sold off, it is trying to bottom out and start back up. It is at some support sitting over some 2011 peaks. After four weeks to the downside, that is a natural place to try to bounce. If it does bounce, look for resistance back at the 95-96 range. That was important. You can see the shelf where it held for a week before it broke down two weeks ago. We will most likely see a bounce in oil. Given the situation, it will likely not break back to the upside. This is a positive overall because it should be lower given the weak economic data out of Europe, China, and Brazil.
It will help in terms of gas prices as they continue to fall just at the start of the driving season. This is good. I was very worried that we would see $5 per gallon gasoline, or maybe even $ if the pace kept up because of those nasty speculators. But it did not. The speculators have not been mentioned since prices started to drop. I guess they are doing their jobs, so they are not calling them out on the downside. We will all benefit from lower gasoline prices. Note that oil is still more or less in a big, flat range, not really falling that much when you look at the historical charts.
VIX: 21.76; +0.22. We saw a break to the upside as the market sold off. We saw the break through the down trendline, a test, and then a three-week surge as the market sold for three weeks. The market tried to bounce last week, and then volatility pulled pack as it should. Very similar to bonds, it has formed a pennant pattern right over the 20 day EMA. That is an upside consolidation pattern. The VIX is sitting right on top of the April high, some peaks from February and March, and some lows from December and January. It is in a position where it is holding above support, and it could very well continue the trend break with a solid move. Of course that would forecast the market selling back down. This is one indication to watch. It is not an investment decision indicator in itself.
Do not be shocked at the lackluster appearance of the internals. It was a very slow, choppy day on Friday. Very much a "Friday before a three-day weekend" kind of session.
Volume. NASDAQ -26%, 1.26B; NYSE -23%, 540M. No one showed up.
Breadth. NASDAQ 1.01:1; NYSE 1.06:1. My goodness, what excitement. It was that kind of day. I was watching the market, looking for plays, seeing what was going on, and checking the news. But there was just nothing happening. Quite boring. That is why I was flipping over to the classic movie channel to see what particular war show was playing on each part of the market day.
SP500. There was a bounce on the week up to the 10 day EMA. SP500 kissed it three times during the past four sessions. A good upside Monday, a negative reversal on Tuesday, a positive reversal on Wednesday, and then "blegh" to end the week. Kind of like Monty Python and the Holy Grail when they were reading what someone had chiseled into the wall: "Arrrrg!" But I digress.
SP500 went nowhere, and it was quite boring. Low volume and moving laterally. It did not punch through. This was a relief bounce after three weeks of selling. Good start but not so great after that. It did not move through. The quality of the move was not that great. Think the Kingdom of Heaven. That is on the one side. On the other side, as I brought up in the preamble to this report, it had every reason to slow down. There were continuing problems in Greece, more problems with respect to Spain, and the U.S. data was not that great. Look at durable goods orders and jobless claims. They were not good, but the market still held up. It got to this level, and it was reversed one day, but it did not tank it. It has held up. You have the yen and the yang; the positives and the negatives. Next week we will figure out exactly what will happen. If we get through the weekend with no major stories, maybe the market tries to continue the relief bounce that was deferred on worries of Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. You can just throw everyone in there but Germany, although Germany could be its own problem as well.
DJ30. DJ30 is a very similar story. No doji on Friday, and it just sold off. It was very sluggish, but it did not sell heavily. Same three-week selloff, same rebound up to the 10 day EMA. The same inability to move through.
NASDAQ. Repeat as necessary. Three weeks down, good bounce Monday, laterally the rest of the week. Good reversals off the lows on Wednesday and Thursday. It went absolutely nowhere on Friday. It is still below the 10 day EMA. It is still above the 200 day EMA and other support. Next week tells the tale.
SP600. The SP600 actually put in an upside session, but it was nothing to make you feel warm and fuzzy. It did tap at the 10 day EMA on the high, and it closed well off of the high. It was not that strong. Same situation: three weeks down, broke through its trading range on the way down. It has now rebounded up toward the 10 day EMA. Not showing a lot of strength on the rebound, but not giving up either.
SOX. SOX got tired of getting beaten up. It jumped 1.37% but closed at the same peak for the entire week. It was unable to push the Monday move, and it has worked laterally ever since. The 10 day EMA is coming down on top of it, and that would typically send the index lower. Good to see it up on Friday. I would not count on it leading the market to the upside. It may grudgingly follow, but I would not count on semiconductors breaking out and pulling the rest of the market with them.
The leaders can be broken into three large groups: internet stocks, drugs/healthcare, and utilities.
Internet. VHC has a very nice-looking pattern. TRIP has very solid moves. EXPE had a nice break higher on Wednesday. New high and testing back. Very solid moves on internet stocks.
Drugs/Healthcare. The drugs and biotech areas are performing quite well. Money is flowing their way. IDIX looks great and has money moving its way. ONXX is moving upside still. You get the picture. These stocks are getting money tossed their way. Makes sense. They are more defensive.
Utilities. Then there are the boring, stayed utilities. I am throwing out the DJ15 which is the utility index. It has broken from a shallow cup and is testing it right now with its own version of a pennant. That is fine. It looks great, but they are such slow movers and hard to trade. You can invest in them if you do not want anything to move. It is a good place to park money if you are very worried, but it is not a great place to trade. They are safe and they are considered defensive, which is why money moves their way.
Retail. We had some issues on the week with LOW announcing some cruddy earnings and gapping lower, but other areas have been pretty solid. MNST is solid, moving nicely upside. CRI is moving up for a second day. AMZN is trying to set up for a move to the upside. It may not be there, but it is trying. We still have some pockets in retail as well.
Software/Technology. There are stocks in the software area showing great patterns and could move well. ADVS is one that could put some gains on the table for us. CERN looks excellent. AZPN looks very good for a breakout as well. I was looking at IBM because it is in a long trendline to the upside that has held many times in the past. It has come back to test that over the past four weeks. It is also in something of an ABCD pattern. I see a few things that I like from old IBM. It may not be a stock that will move 20% for us in a flash, but it can make some good trades for us.
Summary. While the market is very negative overall, it still looks solid in certain areas. Money is moving to areas that you would it not necessarily guess. Software stocks look good. Some consumer stocks still look good even though consumer overall has been beaten up in certain sectors over the past several weeks. There are places where money is flowing. If money is flowing there, that is opportunity to make it to the upside. Where money is leaving, there is opportunity to make it to the downside.
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They are still happy in Michigan, at least for now.
Even Osama is feeling better in Michigan.
Michigan sentiment hit levels not seen since 2007 as the index trounced expectations.
What has the northerners so happy? Part of the 'Planes, Trains, and Automobiles' trade. Car sales have been the strong part of the economy as the twin government companies advertise like crazy and cut 0% financing deals once more. That is boosting Michigan's dire economy. Gasoline prices are falling as oil tumbles lower (what about those bad speculators now driving prices lower. Should we not lift them up in praise when they do what the Administration wants?). The warm weather winter and spring has boosted Michigan Sentiment all year; the base tans are much better much earlier in the year. That has to boost confidence. I also heard recruiting was good for the Wolverine/Spartan state. There you go.
But sentiment is only sentiment. Michigan feels better but what happens when potentially harsh reality hits unjustified sentiment? Sentiment drops.
ECRI Recession Call remains and indeed suggests we are already there.
A week back ECRI reaffirmed its recession call on Bloomberg.
The final cog in the recession picture fell into place: jobs.
Four elements make up the indicators: Real Income, Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Production, and Jobs.
The jobs data shows jobs peaked in February as year over year jobs growth plunged. The decline was so dramatic that in the last 60 years any jobs downturn of this magnitude occurred when the economy was ALREADY in recession. The size of the decline in the context of this current slowdown already in place equals recession.
Thus ECRI is suggesting that we are already in recession but that we typically do not know it until months after the fact.
The above chart shows that GDP adjusted for inflation has hit resistance and then put in a lower high.
This chart shows that income adjusted for inflation has rolled over at a lower high. We have said for months that incomes were negative. They peaked at a lower high and rolled, the last three of four months they have been negative.
Indeed, the past three months the growth rate for incomes is less than at the START of the last 10 recessions. Income is a serious problem: we are supposed to have all of this consumption to come, but how do you have consumption increase when income is negative?
Again, we have been saying this all along. What this data suggests: it is ANOTHER indication that the US is already in recession.
Markit has developed its own manufacturing index to rival ISM. ISM is not based on hard data; it is a sentiment survey of businesses. Indeed it used to be called the Purchasing Manager's Index because it was simply a survey of the PM's. They changed the name to give it the appearance of more clout.
The Markit index shows that a weak Europe and China (remember, we are an exporting nation now as our President wanted) is slowing US factories. After we looked to be pulling away we are being dragged back in. Reminds me of Don Corleone in 'Godfather III': 'Just when I thought I was out . . . they pull me back in.'
Markit shows US manufacturing falling to 53.9 versus 56 in April. But Markit says 'robust domestic demand' should keep manufacturing expanding. Hmmm. Look at the ECRI indicator above. How do you have robust demand with incomes rolling over and indeed negative in real terms? If taxes surge at the expiration of the Bush cuts and the addition of the Obama healthcare hikes, incomes will fall even more. Robust? Dubious. TIF and LOW??
What about the BRIC nations? Surely they will pull us and Europe out of trouble. Brazil is slowing quickly as exports and foreign direct investment are tailing off. Brazil's trade surplus was cut in half on the last read. India, it may be in recession already. China? It still has high trend growth in relative terms, BUT . . . as we have often discussed in our own recessions, particularly back in 2000 and 2001, you may not be in negative GDP, but if you have a drop of over 3% it FEELS like a recession. If trend growth is 3% (for round numbers) but you have been growing at 5%, a 4% drop puts you at 1%; that has the feel of a recession.
Indeed, the drop in Chinese output is of a magnitude equal to the slowdown seen in the US in the Great Depression. So China may still have positive GDP growth, but it feels as if it is in a major recession. Just look at those ghost towns and neighborhoods we viewed Thursday night.
How deep a recession? ECRI says not really bad, more like the 2001 variety. The problem: the cycle looks to be one where we have more frequent recessions even if they are not terribly deep recessions. The good and the bad, yen and yang.
VIX: 21.76; +0.22
VXN: 23.99; -0.21
VXO: 21.44; +0.32
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.14
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 38.3% versus 39.4%. After bumping higher last week Bulls fell to recent lows. Heading toward 35% threshold for a bullish read, down from 43.0% and 41.9% a month back. This is lining up with the put/call ratio. Still over 35% (below which is considered bullish) but dropping fast. Just as the market found support to bounce the bulls ran. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 26.6% versus 22.3%. Bears now have some momentum with a big jump taking it off that 20% level it was stuck at. New high for this run though off the January and February highs. Over 35% to is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. Back to the 25% to 26% level it held for weeks; we will see if it breaks through this time. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -1.85 points (-0.07%) to close at 2837.53
Volume: 1.264B (-26.6%)
Up Volume: 662.34M (+61.58M)
Down Volume: 594.08M (-505.92M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.03 to 1
New Highs: 24 (+5)
New Lows: 45 (-22)
Stats: -2.86 points (-0.22%) to close at 1317.82
NYSE Volume: 540M (-22.86%)
Up Volume: 1.61B (-390M)
Down Volume: 1.18B (-670M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.37 to 1
New Highs: 52 (-7)
New Lows: 66 (-14)
Stats: -74.92 points (-0.6%) to close at 12454.83
Volume DJ30: 93M shares Friday versus 126M shares Thursday.
Next week is a big one for many reasons. The first being this bounce to the 10 day EMA and the resolution of this move. Will the market find reason to break through or will it just shrug and roll back over? Much of that will depend on what happens with data in the U.S. as well as elsewhere.
We will have a full calendar starting on Tuesday with Case/Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday we have pending home sales. Thursday we have Challenger job cuts, ADP employment, the second estimate of GDP, initial jobless claims, and Chicago PMI. It is loaded for bear. On Friday we have nonfarm payrolls, ISM index for May, personal income and spending, construction spending, auto and truck sales. This is a stacked week when it comes to data. On top of all that, you have to wonder if there will be a "Greexit," that Greece exit from the euro announced. Or will something worse happen with respect to Spain, Italy, or one of the other Marx brothers in Europe? There are always problems in China. Will they put forth any stimulus? Will it be enough? Will they be able to do it? You would think so since China has all the money it needs. It should be able to build more ghost towns and prop up the economy for a little longer just as we would want to do here.
The irony of all this is all of the Fed's recent statements. On Thursday, Mr. Dudley said there is no need for stimulus, and the Fed is done. As seen with the discussion of the ECRI recession call, they may not know the trouble we are in until the trouble is already here and we are in it. It is often the case that we do not know we are in recession until after the fact. We may not even know we are in recession until after the election. It would be a tragedy to reelect someone who put us in a worse condition than we were in before. But that is the way things work. If it happens, how will we ever get out of it? We cannot put another $900B down the hole with so-called stimulus. Maybe we will do something that actually works like returning money to the people who earn it so they can at least try to invest. That is called tax cuts and investment incentives. Something out of the Reagan playbook? Could it possibly happen under an Obama administration? I won't hold my breath for that one.
The big resolution next week will be whether or not the market can move through the 10 day EMA to the upside or not. If nothing major happens over the weekend, perhaps it can make the move. It is going to be a breakout move? No. It would just be a rebound likely up to the prior highs, and then we see what happens from there. We do not expect anything given the world economic issues and the data we are seeing out of the U.S. But that can give us a nice run to the upside that we can make money on for our existing plays.
We did not do much with plays on Friday. We took a little more gain off of the table on HNT because it bounced up through the 10 day EMA. We locked in over 250% gain on that. We left some because we know the market could turn back down. Most of our plays, based on what sectors they are in, are holding up just fine. We found no reason to do any mass exodus or any real buying, for that matter before this coming week.
We see stocks that we like, and we will continue to look their way. We will also be ready for some downside. If the 10 day EMA does hold as resistance, you probably get some ugly selling. We know at least NASDAQ will go down to around 2700 before it finds any additional support. While that is not a huge move, it is one that we can make money off of. Frankly, if the indices do fail at the 10 day EMA, this next support is likely not going to hold long term. It may hold for a little bounce as we get the little triangles to do the downside. As far as holding up if the 10 day EMA is now acting as resistance, it is not that good of an indication. Remember, the 10 day EMA acted as support on the way up, and it just kept going and going until it broke. If it is holding as resistance on the way down, that shows you how weak the move is. A strong move up the 10 day EMA, and if the 10 day EMA is then holding the index in check on the way down, it is a very weak market but a strong down trend.
We will see what happens next week. We are lighter in the positions now. We are playing some upside, of course, because we are playing this bounce. We still have stocks in very good patterns that could continue to move well for us. We have had to gravitate toward those areas I have been discussing as leadership. We will continue to look at them. We will look at some downside and see how this 10 day EMA bounce resolves itself.
Have a great three-day weekend. Think about those who have died to preserve what we have, and let's honor them by preserving and taking back what we have lost.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2837.53
2841 is the February 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 2858
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2900 is the March 2012 low
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
The 50 day EMA at 2942
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
The 200 day SMA at 2751
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1317.82
The 10 day EMA at 1324
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1356
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1282
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 12,454.83
The 10 day EMA at 12,563
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,833
12,876 is the May high
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,233
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
May 22 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, April (10:00): 4.62M actual versus 4.65M expected, 4.47M prior (revised from 4.48M)
May 23 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 05/19 (7:00): 3.8% actual versus 9.2% prior
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 343K actual versus 339K expected, 332K prior (revised from 328K)
FHFA Housing Price I, March (10:00): 1.8% actual versus 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 05/19 (10:30): 0.883M actual versus 2.128M prior
May 24 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 05/19 (8:30): 370K actual versus 365K expected, 372K prior (revised from 370K)
Continuing Claims, 05/12 (8:30): 3260K actual versus 3250K expected, 3289K prior (revised from 3265K)
Durable Orders, April (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, -3.7% prior (revised from -4.0%)
Durable Orders -ex Transportation, April (8:30): -0.6% actual versus 1.0% expected, -0.8% prior (no revisions)
May 25 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment - Final, May (9:55): 79.3 actual versus 77.5 expected, 77.8 prior
May 29 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, March (9:00): -2.8% expected, -3.5% prior
Consumer Confidence, May (10:00): 69.0 expected, 69.2 prior
May 30 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 05/26 (7:00): 3.8% prior
Pending Home Sales, April (10:00): -1.0% expected, 4.1% prior
May 31 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, May (7:30): 11.2% prior
ADP Employment Change, May (8:15): 145K expected, 119K prior
Initial Claims, 05/26 (8:30): 370K expected,
Continuing Claims, 05/19 (8:30): 3265K expected,
GDP - Second Estimate, Q1 (8:30): 1.9% expected, 2.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate, Q1 (8:30): 1.5% expected, 1.5% prior
Chicago PMI, May (9:45): 57.5 expected, 56.2 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/26 (11:00): 0.883M prior
June 1 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (8:30): 155K expected, 115K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, May (8:30): 172K expected, 130K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (8:30): 8.1% expected, 8.1% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, May (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Personal Income, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
PCE Prices - Core, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Index, May (10:00): 54.0 expected, 54.8 prior
Construction Spending, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.1% prior
Auto Sales, May (14:00): 5.0M prior
Truck Sales, May (14:00): 6.0 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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