Sunday, March 25, 2012

Stocks Rise After a 3-Day Pullback

SUMMARY:

- Stocks rise after a 3-day pullback, ending 'losing streak' and keeping the same action in place, just don't generate any pre-weekend excitement.
- Oil, gold jump ahead of a weekend as weekends now have to factor in rising geopolitical issues.
- There they go again: European bond yields screaming back up.
- KB Homes demand plunges, New Home Sales drop versus the expected rise, and large revisions to prior data are discouraging.
- Lots of data next week but watch for earnings warnings thanks to higher prices, tougher comps (remember FedEx).
- Market character has not changed so we look to play more emerging leaders while tending current leaders that may be losing the mojo.

No change at all as market shakes of negatives to rally back from a weak open.

The market did what you would expect it to do in an uptrend after a three-day pullback: It bounced on Friday. It ended the "losing streak" that I heard talked about before the open. Yes, the market was in a three day, horrid losing streak where it had rallied and retraced roughly a third of the move off of that last low and was holding over support. That left it in position to what? End its losing streak, I guess. It was preposterous. Listening to the financial stations you will get that kind of nonsense. It is totally out of perspective. They say "Today oil is surging" or "Today oil is plunging." It all depends on whether it is holding the trend or breaking the trend. You get the idea.

Stocks bounced as we would expect them to do after a three-day pullback given that they are still in this uptrend. Everything was normal. Nothing changed as of Friday. Of course, the bounce was rather anemic. It did not do a lot to change the situation, particularly on SP600 as it is still below the prior bear market high. It has yet to make a breakout that will stick above that prior peak. It is in position to move, making a higher low; but it has done that before as well. Maybe MACD will pick up the pace and it will make the break. Again, on Friday it did not do anything to change the character of the market. That in itself did not answer a lot of questions.

Looking at the action on the day, the futures were all over the map. They were down but moving higher up toward the flatline before the open. But they sold off sharply when the news came out that New Home Sales for February were worse than expected. There were some pretty ugly revisions. They did not make the headlines, but I think the market saw some of that. It did not last for long, however. Look at that reversal doji. A big reach lower, a reversal, and volume picked up on the move. Voila. The bids came back in on the dip, investors rallied stocks once more on a pullback. This is very instructive. You see the dip, the reversal, the rally. Note how it made it up to these prior levels, stalled a bit, and then burst through.

Often it will not come up and touch it; they will stall and consolidate before they get there and then explode through there. That is exactly what happened. It came back to test sitting right on top of that early session double top. It does not matter if it was premarket or not because that is where the trade was. It formed those pyramids higher for the rest of the session, riding up the 15 minute moving average. A nice spurt at the end of the day did not hurt at all.

It was not a grand day. There were relatively modest gains.

SP500, +0.3%; NASDAQ, +0.15%; Dow, +0.27%; SP600, +0.98%; SOX, +0.26%

NASDAQ 100 was down, meaning the large cap tech stocks were not performing that well. AAPL had an interesting day. The BATS exchange IPO was out. It was trading its own stock on its own exchange, and it was trading for 0. Not the day they expected. There were some other mixups as well. On that exchange, on the day of your IPO, AAPL sold at $452. That triggered the circuit breakers and the trades were cancelled, but it was a travesty for the IPO and for the company. Before the day was over, they stopped trading and just pulled the IPO. Those poor son of a guns. But it was not a good day. The BATS exchange was referred to as the "bats-it" exchange after that, if you get my drift. It was comical in a sad way; you had to feel sorry for them.

The market moved to the upside. Nothing grand, but after three days the market did rise again. It was not any kind of glory, though, just a bounce off of near support. Given it was a weekend, we were not too excited about the move. If it had done something extra special, we may have been engaged, but there was no point with SP600 still below its prior peaks. With so much intrigue potential over the weekend with the Iran/Israel situation, it is not worth moving into those plays. Indeed, there are plenty of good setups for next week, and we can participate in those if the market wants to continue the rally. Perhaps we would see SP600 break out and join SP500, the Dow, and NASDAQ above its prior bear market highs.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. 1.3258 versus 1.3181 euro. The dollar sold off. That was interesting given some geopolitical intrigue. Perhaps it was the economic data that was somewhat disappointing. New Home Sales were not that great. On the other hand, there were problems in Spain and Greece with their bond yields surging back to the upside. For whatever reason the dollar sold off. It is still holding up right at the 50 day EMA. It still has to prove itself. Looking back, it is just below some important levels but is holding some interim peaks.


Bonds. 2.23% versus 2.29% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds had a good day. A good upside week for bonds, recovering from the gutting they took the week before. Now they are up in this gap zone. We will see if they can continue to rally and move back above this key level that marked the bottom of the triangle. It was a week that saw some interesting moves in bonds as money continued to run their way. Yesterday we saw the 10 year TIPS trade at a negative yield. Pretty crazy, but that is the way things go when you have problems all over the world.


Gold. 1,662.50, +20.00. Gold responded favorably to the issues in the Middle East. There was a little fear trade going. It is not a recovery by any means. Gold has been beaten about the head and shoulders, but it is still fighting back and holding where it needs to hold.


Oil. 106.86, +1.52. Oil also enjoyed the old pre-weekend Iran/Israel issues. Oil rose and held the lateral pennant after the breakout. Oil is going to hold that until something happens in Iran. Either there is no issue or there is a break and oil surges.


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

VIX. VIX is down at lows. It is below the 2011 low, so surely that must mean that the market will sell off. It can mean that, but it does not have to mean that. It is still above lows hit in 2006 and 2007 before the market started to sell off. People associate that selloff with the mere fact that volatility is low. That is incorrect. Just because volatility is low does not suggest a selloff. A long time ago the market broke free of the notion that volatility was normal between 20-30. That is no longer the case. Volatility and how it impacts the market depends on whether a relationship is set up between the market moves, as it does from time to time (but those are short term moves). Longer term, volatility rises ahead of a selloff even as stocks rise. That is the key for the major moves that people look at volatility to suggest. Traders always talk about the correlation. Sometimes it sets up short term, but it is always present longer term, i.e., stocks rise and volatility rises as we saw in 2007. That is a signal that the market is ready to sell off big.

That is exactly what happened in 1999 into early 2000. Volatility started to run higher at the turn of the year in 2000 as the stock market ran higher. That was a telltale sign that the market was topping. We do not have that right how. Volatility is not running higher as the stock market is running higher. The mere fact that it is low does not mean that it will sell off. We have had volatility much lower for much longer periods of time, and these were prosperous times for the market. I hope I have made that point clear. I have to make it from time to time because I hear so many people on the financial stations misrepresenting what volatility means.


Volume. NASDAQ, -5%, 1.41B; NYSE, -6%, 662M. The day was nothing special. We had an upside day where volume fell. On Thursday we had a downside day that saw volume rise on the NYSE. We had more selling volume than we have had upside volume. That is not a good thing, but (and this is a big but), it is not hugely big volume either way. I know volumes overall are down a good 25% from years gone by, but my point is the relative volume from day to day is low and the change in the relative volume is low. It is not a situation where you are seeing big spikes of volume one way or the other. There are days where you get an outsized volume day such as February 29, or again on the selloff day of March 6. Volume cracked above average. Then we got an upside volume day on March 13, again on the March 14, and one more on March 15. They were upside volume, and then we had expiration; throw that one out the window.

Then on the downside, the volume was not bumping as high as it was to the upside on this run. It was not nearly as high as it was on the earlier time. We are not getting that distribution that would suggest the market is emptying out the cupboard, so to speak. What do I mean by that? If there is a lot of downside volume in other words on days that stocks sell, volume is high and it is low as the market rebounds, then you are taking the goods off the shelves on the down days. You are not restocking them on the up days as much as you are taking off the shelves on the down days. If you keep that up for enough days (usually a week or so on that action), then all of the goods are off the shelves, and it is time to restock. To do that the market has to go down to the store, restock, and then move back to the upside. That is my simplistic grocery store analogy, but I think it is clear. We are not getting that here. The market is mostly rising, lately on higher volume, than it has been declining. That makes this a perfect 1-2-3 test with a further reach down on Friday and a reversal, as you can see on the SP500.


Breadth. NASDAQ, 2:1; NYSE 2.5:1. The NYSE was pushed buy those small caps that were performing quite nicely.


Bulls versus bears. I am borrowing this from Investor's Business Daily. A big jump in bulls up to 48.4 from 43.6. At the same time, bears fell to 23.6 versus the 26.6 shown last week. What does this mean? Investors were turning more bearish with bulls falling and bears rising even as the market rose. The breaks to the new highs by SP500 joining the Dow and the NASDAQ broke sentiment higher as well. A lot of investment advisors took this as a positive and are back on the "everything is roses" parade. This is not an extreme level, but it is approaching the highs that were hit in past peaks. In April of 2011 as the market peaked out, you were looking at highs near 60 as close as February. A good selloff took some of the froth out of the investment advisors and sentiment, and it put it on a better track to move higher. This is another indication, similar to VIX but somewhat different, that the market can continue higher. In other words, this will not prevent the market from moving higher from here just as volatility at the low level it is right now will not prevent the market from moving higher either.


THE CHARTS

SP500. There was the breakout by SP500 a couple of weeks back, the additional rally, and then this week's pullback. A nice Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday pullback to support. The Friday tap a little lower, and then a reversal to the upside. Volume did not scream higher. Obviously it was lower, so maybe a little distribution Thursday, maybe no accumulation Friday. But that is the way it has been on this rally. You are playing patterns more than anything else. Volumes count when volumes say something, but they are not saying much. Overall, volumes are telling you this rally cannot last, and ultimately we will have an ugly ending. Overall, that is what will likely happen. It is going on happen someday, but the question is when. Right now there is nothing suggesting that it will turn. Leaders are still hanging in there, and other leaders are trying to emerge to take their spot in case they do falter.


DJ30. DJ30 had its pullback, but it was not a 1-2-3. It was kind of a 4 out of 5 to the downside, but it held the 20 day EMA and the prior peak. It even tapped at it on the Friday low and Thursday as well. Then it reversed for a gain. Not a barn burner, not setting any records, but looking decent. MACD is worrisome, but it is shaping up. It did not do anything to change the trend of modest pullbacks and buys on the dip.


DJ20. We got that flop back to the 50 day EMA on Thursday, but an undercut and a rebound. Maybe the transports will try to drag their sorry rears back to the upside. This even with FDX saying they have issues with their business. People are going to trucks versus airfreight because it is so expensive. In any event, the transports can put in a higher low and break to the upside. Maybe they can take out this prior peak that they failed to do last time. That would be the transports, the small caps, and the semiconductors failing to take out those prior highs, but at least they are keeping themselves in the game and giving themselves shots to do it by making higher lows.


NASDAQ. NASDAQ was a leader all week and indeed on this rally. It faltered and had somewhat of a pullback, but it was not much of one. It still showed great relative strength even as it tested. Very strong, holding above the 10 day EMA, tapping below it on Friday but recovering as well. I guess it got a bit of an AAPL dip there, even though that trade was canceled. Very sold. 1-2-3 pullback and not even that because NASDAQ held up very well on the week.


SP600. The small caps remain the issue, and I am a broken record to this. They are making a higher low just as the transports are. They are trying to hold, at a logical level at that April 2011 peak. They want to mount another bounce off of that level. They are not dead yet (the old Monty Python and the Holy Grail mantra) and it is hanging in there. Maybe they can make the move. Why? They are so important because they are an economic harbinger, blah, blah, blah. You get the point. It will be one to watch again this week.


SOX. We should watch the semiconductors as well. They look pretty good. They did not pull back much, very much like NASDAQ. A simple, easy, shallow slide to the 10 day EMA. Maybe this higher low sets up the break over that February peak. Something it has not been able to do.


Where does that leave us with the indices? Not in bad shape. Same position. Showing the overall upward bias even with the small caps bumping up against that high and not able to make the break yet. They have not made the break, but here is an important point: They have not broken down either. They have had all kinds of chance to do it, but they have not. That speaks fairly loudly if you ask me.


LEADERSHIP

Retail. RL had a tough day, and it had a tough Thursday as well. It broke lower on Friday but managed to rebound. It managed to hold, reverse, and hold above the lows in its range after the breakaway gap. That fact kept us in the play. We will see if it can continue to move to the upside. NKE had a tough day after earnings. It did not perform well, but it held the 50 day EMA and bounced. Now we see if it can recover and move to the upside. COH looks like it is having a little issue as well. It has done this before and bounced right back. Note how on Friday it recovered nicely on volume as the buyers came back in.

Various apparel makers are having a bit of an issue, but not rolling over. DRI has been reporting some less-than-stellar earnings of late. It saw better results at its Olive Garden. Still lagging and bounced off of the 50 day EMA. Maybe there will be something there that will send it to the upside. PNRA was moving laterally in its trend last week, but not being spectacular. We are noticing that on a lot of these plays. They maybe moving higher, but not spectacularly so. Then you throw in one like TJX, and it continues to perform well with a great move over the past month. But it, too, may flatten out. It has not yet, but it may. Okay, we will not worry about that. As long as it runs, we are more than happy. HLF is one that has run. It has come back to test. Normal test thus far, and it looks fine to continue. Will it? WFM has broken below its trendline. It is trying to move up. It will be an important week for it as well. Some leaders may be coming under fire, and that is something we have seen in many of the different sectors.

Industrial. CAT bounced on Friday. Lower volume on the bounce. It may fill that gap and give us the downside play we were looking for initially.

Financial. Banks and financials overall had a pretty good week even though they were down to end the week. WFC closed at its 10 day EMA, hardly in any danger. MS actually bounced Friday. The regional banks are holding up. HSBC and HBAB, this is a nice pullback to test the breakout. That could be an interesting play. It has a lot of resistance overhead, but it is working its way back to the upside. The financials still look good, and if they find support, the market will perform well.

Technology. VELT is a small software company with a nice pattern. GLUU had a 21% move today. Not bad. Some of the small techs are actually able to produce some solid moves. ATHN is trying to make the break to the upside. CHKP is breaking higher. If it continues to move, it looks pretty good to pick up.

There are a lot of stocks in patterns that are not extended. That is what I have been saying for the last two weeks. They will lead this market. If they do continue to move higher and move up to leadership status, the market will look good working its way forward.



THE ECONOMY

That was a short respite: European bond yields jump.

Is the Financial Facility losing its efficacy in the European recession?


The new 2023 (10 year) Greek bonds, just two weeks old, are experiencing a rough childhood. Prices plunged 17.5% and sent yields over 20%. Ten year yields over 20%. Two bailouts in the bank and bonds are still unable to hold any value. Bailout three is apparently coming but will Germany agree to part with more money without something in return, say the Greek islands themselves?

Spanish bonds are starting to get edgy as well. They were starting to behave after the financial facility was placed, but now Spanish 10 year bonds are yielding over 5.5%, the highest in 11 months.

It appears as if the carefully planned EU recovery is not holding to plan. The problem is a recession is the last thing the Continent needs as the economic activity needed to bring the Greek and other debt to GDP ratios in line according to the bailout cannot occur without robust growth. But the austerity is preventing growth as well. Double edged sword and frankly things do not look good for the EU.


New Home Sales sports worrisome numbers and KBH misses big on sales.

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 313K actual versus 323K expected, 318K prior (revised from 321K)


The numbers look relatively innocuous with a 1.6% drop. A 1.3% gain was expected, however.

Revisions: 318K from 321K does not look bad either. BUT . . . that is down from 336K in December, -5.5% month/month. That is the largest decline in over a year.

Inventories: Total units for sale remained at 150K for the second month but with the lower sales numbers that pushed inventories to 5.8 months to deplete.

This is an ALL-TIME low (since records started in 1963) in new homes available for sale. All time. I searched Bloomberg, Briefing.com, and other financial sites. CNBC actually noted the 150K was a record low. Bloomberg made no mention of the 150K number, record low or no. Is that good news or bad? There need to be fewer homes for sale to ultimately firm prices and turn the market. Consider, however, the following.


KB Homes reported earnings and also that orders for new homes dropped 9% in the quarter. Not great, but then figure that +20% was expected. Thus the above 150K figure is not because of a lot of sales, but also drops in new home construction. Combined with the distressed sales of existing homes that still make up over 30% of the market and you get the lowest number of new homes on the market since the records were kept.

Chart anticipating a drop? Double top, lower MACD on a nominal, low volume new high.


TO VIEW THE ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.html



THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 14.82; -0.75
VXN: 16.57; -0.26
VXO: 14.41; -0.68

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; -0.06

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 48.4% versus 43.6%. Bouncing right back up after three week decline. 47.9% before that and 51% even before. Bullish sentiment is returning. Again, it is not excessively bullish. They are off the 55+ level even near the highs as investors get a bit pensive. Bigger picture that is good for the upside. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 23.6% versus 26.6%. After a three week stint near 25 to 26% bears are falling. As with bulls, not excessive either way. Solidly lower after spending weeks at 30%ish. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +4.6 points (+0.15%) to close at 3067.92
Volume: 1.414B (-5.29%)

Up Volume: 695.89M (+232.17M)
Down Volume: 711.23M (-318.77M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.27 to 1

New Highs: 72 (+16)
New Lows: 20 (-1)


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +4.33 points (+0.31%) to close at 1397.11
NYSE Volume: 662M (-6.1%)

Up Volume: 2.39B (+1.929B)
Down Volume: 956.62M (-2.283B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.47 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.85 to 1

New Highs: 75 (+23)
New Lows: 11 (-8)


DJ30

Stats: +34.59 points (+0.27%) to close at 13080.73
Volume DJ30: 130M shares Friday versus 122M shares Thursday.


MONDAY

Next week we have a full slate of economic data from Monday through Friday. We start with Pending Home Sales on Monday. More housing data. It played a big role this week. Case/Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Durable Orders. They we come back with the third iteration of GDP. Initial Claims on Thursday with that. Then Friday Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment. This will be the final for March. We got a load of data coming out. We will be able to ride the rails with that, not to mention the geopolitical data and what is going on with Europe with the bond yields starting to spike again.

That is all important. It will be very important, and the political campaign will be important. But we are also coming into earnings season. That will be important because we are anticipating that earnings will start to abate. The comparisons are tougher, and the growth has been less. Despite all of this talk about expanding economic recovery, we will have lower earnings. We saw NKE's gross margins falling. Why? Costs. Costs will play a role across the board. There has been a lot of good cost management to this point, but companies have done about all they can do to cut the fat. They have not hired anybody or have not been higher much. They have been holding on to their money because they anticipated higher costs ahead. Higher costs for the raw materials or from regulations such as Obamacare or EPA mandates about what they have to do with respect to their energy consumption. The Energy Department is putting coal companies out of business and raising the energy cost to heat and cool buildings. And then the farmers with the Labor Department passed a bunch of regulations about what kids can do on the farm. A lot of kids now cannot even ride the golf cart down to take care of the animals if they are not 16. It is insane, but that is what we have.

There are a lot of extra costs built in. These regulations are not free. Those costs go up to companies, and they will pass the cost onto us sooner than later. It will be one crescendo. We have energy cost going up, we have the cost of regulations going up, and looks like we will have taxes going up. Do you wonder why companies are hoarding all that money? They know taxes will go up. They have this money that they made and paid tax on, so will they spend it? They will be very careful with what they do with it.

We think earnings warnings could start up this coming week. We could see some problems. Some of the stocks that are already kind of wobbly could be an issue. We need to be diligent with our positions. If they break down (and that is what happens, leaders break down and recycle through the market), we need to go ahead and book the rest of the gains on them and put our money in the stocks that are the up-and-comers I have been talking about. They are out there, and they have some interesting patterns. ABCD patterns. Here is SZYM with a nice flag pattern. There are many different solid patterns out there on the up-and-comers that we can take advantage of.

We will focus on those still as our next battery of upside. Nothing has really changed in the market to alter the character of the modest rallies followed by modest pullbacks, followed by modest rallies. We will keep an eye on the SP600, of course, because it is something of an issue not being able to make the break. That may just be a formality as it makes a higher low. If the market wants to rally next week, odds are it will pull SP600 with it.

What do we do? We want to be at the table to eat when hedge funds and money market funds put their money to work in these other stocks. You can see them developing their patterns. We made money on many of the stocks when they came off of the lows and made us some great gains as they broke higher out of those nice, rounded bottoms. The ones that are doing it now, we want to do the same thing and make great gains on them. All the while protecting what we have made on those that have rallied but may be showing a bit of wear-and-tear.

Have a great weekend! I will see you on Monday for the start of a busy week.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 3067.92

Resistance:
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low


Support:
3042 from 5/2000 low
3026 from 10/2000 low
The 20 day EMA at 3015
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2922
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 200 day SMA at 2691
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low


S&P 500: Closed at 1397.11

Resistance:
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 1383
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1352
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1264
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low


Dow: Closed at 13,080.73
Resistance:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak


Support:
13,056 is the February 2012 high
12,876 is the May high
The 50 day EMA at 12,841
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 12,063
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak


Economic Calendar

March 19 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 28 actual versus 31 expected, 28 prior (revised from 29)

March 20 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 698K actual versus 705K expected, 706K prior (revised from 699K)
Building Permits, February (8:30): 717K actual versus 695K expected, 682K prior (revised from 676K)

March 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/17 (7:00): -7.4% actual versus -2.4% prior
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 4.59M actual versus 4.60M expected, 4.63M prior (revised from 4.57M)
Crude Inventories, 03/17 (10:30): -1.160M actual versus 1.750M prior

March 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/17 (8:30): 348K actual versus 355K expected, 353K prior (revised from 351K)
Continuing Claims, 03/10 (8:30): 3352K actual versus 3363K expected, 3361K prior (revised from 3343K)
FHFA Housing Price I, January (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.7%)
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%)

March 23 - Friday
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 313K actual versus 323K expected, 318K prior (revised from 321K)


March 26 - Monday
Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, 2.0% prior

March 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, January (9:00): -3.8% expected, -4.0% prior
Consumer Confidence, March (10:00): 70.0 expected, 70.8 prior

March 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/24 (7:00): -7.4% prior
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 2.5% expected, -3.7% prior (revised from -4.0%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, February (8:30): 1.0% expected, -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%)
Crude Inventories, 03/24 (10:30): -1.160M prior

March 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/24 (8:30): 350K expected, 348K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/17 (8:30): 3385K expected, 3352K prior
GDP - Third Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 3.0% expected, 3.0% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior

March 30 - Friday
Personal Income, February (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 62.0 expected, 64.0 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, March (9:55): 74.3 expected, 74.3 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Monday, March 12, 2012

Jobs are Decent, Stocks Bounce

SUMMARY:

- Jobs are decent, stocks bounce, but the indices are still below the recent peaks.
- Some stocks continue to look super, and others bounced back but look a lot like mere relief bounces.
- Jobs continue to improve but the best jobs are 50% temporary, job quality and pay has degraded, long-term unemployment is still incredibly high, and another 10 years is needed at this rate to get back to even.
- January Trade Deficit jumps to the highest in 3+ years. That is not a bad thing.
- Economy at escape velocity? Does the jobs report scuttle any vestiges of a QE3? ECRI versus areas of economic improvement.
- Friday did not answer the rally or correction question, but it sure left the table set for this week to try and formulate an answer.
- Many more downside setups, but good stocks continue running and there are more than a few upside setups as well.

Stocks bounce on jobs report but don't surge. Don't turn and sell off either.

Friday brought the jobs report. Of course the news about jobs dominated the headlines, and it dominated the action in the markets as well. Jobs were decent. They came in better than expected at 227K, and December and January were revised higher. The unemployment rate held at 8.3% despite more people coming back into the jobs market. That means there were more jobs available to soak them up. That was great news, and the market did bounce to the upside. There were problems with the report, but there are problems with every report. The trend is better, but there are issues about this trend. Yes, the numbers are better, but there are other factors to consider. I will get to those later.

Stocks were up, but where did they get up to? The SP500 is back at its May highs. That puts it at about the prior post bear market peak. It did not do any real damage to that level. Indeed, it faded back after moving through it intraday. There is similar action on the DJ30 with a bounce back up toward a prior high. Not even making that level. NASDAQ bounced back up to its prior high, but it did not move through it either. Up on the day, for sure, but it was not stellar action.

This leaves the market in position to answer the question next week as to whether it will make a breakout or if it will fade back and consolidate or correct. There are still stocks set up to the upside. There are stocks that have been running well that continue to run to the upside and perform very well. At the same time, there are stocks set up to fall, and they are key stocks as well. We will see how it shakes out, but we will be ready for either direction. The market is at a point where it has run a long way. It is bumping at resistance and has not been able to make the break through. It is trying to buy some time just as the Fed tried to by time and hope that its policies took effect to get the market moving before inflation took off. The market is trying to move laterally, buy some time, and let it catch its breath and consolidate so it can try to make the next move higher.

Looking at the morning action, futures were moving higher up into the actual release of the jobs report. They had been hesitating, but they did slightly tick higher ahead of the report. They faded after it came out, but the market caught itself and rallied higher as trading began. It held up well for most of the day before fading in the afternoon and trading laterally. It did manage a bounce late in the session to put a bit better face on it and to hold the gains. But as noted, the major indices did not move through their prior peaks. They did not scare anyone with their power. On the other hand, they did not roll over and sell off. That was one of the scenarios we were watching for, and it did not develop. But the indices did not provide a clear picture as to whether it was a hands-down winner and they were going to move higher, or if they were just going to bump up at those highs again and roll back over.

The gains were decent on the day, but nowhere near what they were on Thursday.

SP500, +0.36%; NASDAQ, +0.6%; Dow, +0.11%; SP600, +1.28%; SOX, +1.08%

Looking at the percentage gains, there is a definite bias toward the growth indices or growth sectors. They were the ones leading higher, and frankly they helped lead the market to the upside on this last leg up to the prior highs. Now we will see if they continue on and give the indices the punch needed to break through those highs, or if the lagging sides of the market such as manufacturing (as seen with CAT) pull them back down once more. There is also a third scenario. Perhaps those that are moving higher and those that are setting up to break to the upside will provide enough impetus to hold the market high (or at least hold where it is now) as the others fade. Kind of like the new replacing the old that are tired and holding the status quo.

That does not do much for moving higher, but think of it kind of like the unemployment rate today. It held at 8.3% even as more people came back to the market. That is typically what drives up unemployment rate, but there were enough jobs to offset them. Kind of the yin and yang, or like the Seinfeld episode where he was even-steven. He threw $20 out the window and then he found $20 in a pocket somewhere. That is hardly the case here; not a true, pure analogy, but you get the idea. The market is set up. The question is which way it will go.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. 1.3116 versus 1.3280 euro. The dollar posted a gain against the euro, but it was down against the other currencies and the DXYO lost ground. It is in this double bottom at a support level. It rallied through the hump in the pattern, but it gapped right back down. A little mini-island reversal. We will probably see a pullback to the bottom of the range as the U.S. struggles against the other currencies. The Japanese yen is a little stronger. The Bank of Japan will probably try to intervene as it does not want a stronger yen. It has not wanted a stronger yen in the past 15 years that I can recall. Maybe even longer.

You would expect the dollar to be stronger on a better jobs report. It just was not across the board.


Bonds. 2.05% versus 2.01% 10 year U.S. Treasury. The 10 year sold as you would anticipate. The notable move was above 2% for the week, and that drove bonds down to the bottom of the range at the bottom of this triangle. They did bounce off of the lows. It is getting interesting. Will they be able to mount a run higher off of the bottom of the triangle? They are pinched down into the point of the triangle, and this is the lick log. They will have to either make a break or not. At this point in the past they have showed the doji similar to what they showed on Friday and have bounced, but they have never broken out. As noted, this is the lick log. Something will happen over the next week with bonds. They could break down, which would suggest that the Fed will not post more Quantitative Easing and that the economy is good enough for bond yields to rise. The question is will the Fed let them rise? It still wants that easy money policy. Maybe no QE3, but it wants to keep the rates low.


Gold. 1,711.20, +12.50. Gold had an interesting day, and indeed an interesting week. Gold has been somewhat of an enigma trade. It broke out of its channel in late January. It rallied a bit, tested, made a higher low, and then broke to the upside. It looked solid, and then came the Bernanke testimony two Wednesdays back. He did not say anything about QE3. Investors wondered "Where the heck is our inflation trade?" Then they sold gold. Gold continued down, but it held at the 200 day EMA and at some interim peaks and valleys. It bounced. Not big, but Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday it was to the upside. Friday was volatile, but it snapped back and posted a good gain up to the 50 day EMA.

Looks as if gold wants to try to make the break back to the upside. Maybe there is a realization that there will be inflation whether or not the Fed pulls out a QE3. Jim Rogers is saying that there is no question that prices are up and that the government is lying to us about prices. The EPI shows inflation at 8% on the stuff you buy every day versus throwing in the washer and dryer, the flat screen TV, and personal computers. We all know those prices are going down, but the prices of the things that we eat and put in our tank and simply need to get by every day are going up. Perhaps that is why gold looks to have found a bottom and is looking to bounce once more.


Oil. 107.40, +0.82. Oil closed higher as well. It was down early, but then it reversed. That makes sense given the economy is improving, even if Europe is down, China is trying to slow, and Brazil's GDP fell to 2.7% growth. Then there are all the troubles in Iran. I heard it said today that we are at the World War II moment now. The longer we wait (and we have already waited too long) the more costly it gets if we are truly serious about stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Or we will just let them have nuclear weapons, and many believe the administration is willing to let that happen versus having any serious confrontation.

I can see the setup, however, that Israel will be forced to act before it gets it too late and the ability to stop Iran gets beyond their technology. And then we do not back Israel. We may say that Israel acted without our permission, and that could get kind of ugly. But I digress. Suffice it to say that there are a lot of tensions in Middle East that are not helping the price of oil.


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

The internals were kind of lackluster, but it was a Friday.

Volume. NASDAQ -2.5%, 1.56B; NYSE -0.5%; 662M. It is a little disappointing to see volume decline as the market continued to recover. Recall that volume was quite accelerated on Tuesday with the selling, and that shows there are more sellers in the market. But there are three days to the upside. Does that mean anything? Yes and no. It is good to see the market bounce back up, but we will look at the technical picture momentarily. Even though it did rebound, the light volume and where it closed are indicative of a continued issue with breaking through these levels. That does not necessarily mean it will roll over, but it could trade in that range.


Breadth. NASDAQ +2.4:1; NYSE +2.3:1. Breadth was not bad. Small caps and techs in general were better than large cap techs. The smaller issues were helping to fill in the market and push it higher. That is what it needs because a lot of big names are struggling right now. We need a bunch of soldiers to fill in the gap and hold that market to the upside.


THE CHARTS

SP500. I am looking at that Tuesday selloff. Volume was up. It was not huge, but volume was huge a week before when SP500 broke to its new post bear market high, but then reversed and gave it back. The two largest volume days in the past two weeks have been to the downside. That is not necessarily great news. Looking at the third highest volume session in the last two months, we can see that it was an upside day. It is about 2:1 when you look at the big volume days.

That said, we held at the February peak and had a three-day rebound. A three-day pullback and a three-day rebound on declining volume. SP500 even reached through the prior post bear market high on Friday, but it could not hold the move and closed right at that prior high. It is set up now. It can fall back in the range and continue to trade. It can fall back further down toward the 50 day EMA or the October peak. Or it could make the breakout. The odds of a breakout may not be that great. The odds of a breakdown are not that great either. Unfortunately, I am talking about a narrow, choppy trading range. I would prefer to have a trading range that was big and that we can easily play up and down, but we may not get that.


DJ30. The Dow is similar, but not in as good of shape as the SP500. Recall that the Dow is the one that looks like it is having this rollover top. And you can see the head and shoulders. It tried to break through those highs from early February that set up the left shoulder. It got close. It went through the high from early February, but it pulled back well off of its high to close. It could be in the formation of that right shoulder. We are still looking at that as a potential downside play, to see the Dow break lower and come back to test these lows in the range from late January. That gives us a nice downside play to take advantage of as the Dow trades in a range, consolidating the gains. I think that is the most likely scenario for all of the indices. Not a huge breakout and not a big selloff. Just range trading. After all, the economy is improving. Europe is getting its stuff all in one pile. There should not be any reason to sell off (at least not an overt reason).


NASDAQ. NASDAQ put in a decent day, moving back up to its prior high. Volume has been a bit lower on the rebound. But techs were no doubt in the lead just as they were in the lead on the rally to the upside. That helped the market make its positive break. The question mark we have is that as NASDAQ matches the prior high (the new post-bear market high, those levels hit in late February) then MACD is making a lower high. We are running out of a little momentum. Does that mean a rip roaring selloff? No. Probably range trading, as I mentioned. It bounced once off of its prior high just as it did after it broke through it in early February. So it looks like that could be a support level where we see NASDAQ trade basically between 3000 down to 2900. It could drop lower toward the 50 day EMA at 2856. We will have to see how it plays out. There is this gap also from early February, and that could provide a needed gap fill. That would put it basically where the 50 day EMA is right now around 2860. It is not a big move 100-120 points to the downside.


SP600. The small caps also posted a nice day. Up three days in a row after some ugly downside a week and a half ago. It broke through the 50 day EMA on Tuesday, but then it tried to recover Wednesday. It could not do it, but Thursday and Friday it marched right back through. Now it is at a key level. It could not bust through it on Friday, fading back. But it is still strong to the upside as the small caps help push up the breadth. They posted nice gains. This could be the support that the market needs, with those other guys coming in and holding it up while the household, name-brand stocks take a breather.


SOX. The SOX posted a nice gain as well, up over 1%. The third day to the upside after this doji on Tuesday. 1-2-3 down, doji, and then 1-2-3 back up. This is going to be more problematic. Perhaps we get a little head and shoulders set up. Perhaps. Maybe this is the test back up. We will see if it breaks. As with the rest of the indices, three days to the upside, recovery from the selling, but not a clear affirmation that they will break to a new rally high on this move. I do not think that was shown at all. Indeed, with the number of downside setups we are seeing versus the number of upside setups, they are getting pretty even in the market. That does not necessarily mean it will tank; it just means that as money moves from one area to another, it drops that area that it left but bolsters the area it is moving to. That somewhat maintains the status quo. It is kind of maddening, and semiconductors were maddening for everyone here today. It is amazing when these moves happen and people get on edge and everything starts bothering them. "Where it heck is my pen?" All of a sudden a pen becomes very important. When times are good they will just grab another one. Today it was, "Who took my pen?!"

Stocks like KLAC and NVLS were moving up. All of a sudden they broke back up after they looked to be breaking down. But I digress. The transports were three days up as well, but a doji at the 50 day EMA. They definitely remain one of the downside indicators for the market overall.


LEADERSHIP

There are downside setups, upside setups, and those that are in between.

Retail. Some retailers continue to perform quite well. FOSL is continuing its move to the upside. Hard to complain about that with a 2.6% gain. TJX was up 1% on the day. HLF was up 3.6% on the day. Strong moves indeed. NKE was up 2%, and SCSS was up 3.7%. Retail across the board continues to perform very well.

Semiconductors. The semiconductors were trying to come back from the dead and bugging the heck out of us. KLAC broke back up through the 50 day EMA. NVLS broke back up above its channel line. Not bad. Not all of them are out of the woods. SLAB remains unable to bounce after selling off hard. BRCM bounced up off that doji at the 200 day EMA. Maybe it makes the break. We are still watching it for a possible downside play.

Manufacturing/Machinery. Then you have the stocks that have been the old standbys and doing so well. CAT is not looking so hot right now, and that goes across the board when it comes to manufacturing stocks. JOY is showing a bear flag, bouncing up after gapping down. It looks like it could roll down pretty hard from here.

Metals. There are issues with some metals stocks. AKS is bouncing back after selling off. There have been really ugly downtrends. FCX bounced modestly, but has turned back down on Friday on volume when most everything else was moving to the upside.

Miscellaneous upside movers. There are downside setups in key areas as well. What wins out? We have a lot of potential downside moves, but we also have stocks that are running to the upside and looking quite strong. There are other stocks that we moved into during the week or have bought recently and are performing very well. OSIS, for instance, looks solid and is bouncing up higher again. GTLS is making a further upside break. KIRK came back very well from an initial rude treatment on its jobs report. MA is not blowing it out, but it is moving up nicely. IACI in retail is performing well.

As you can see, there are stocks breaking higher after pretty decent consolidations, and they are supporting the market just as other stocks are in trouble and are undermining the market's advance. The net effect thus far? It has not been a breakdown, obviously. It has been some weakness in the market overall, but it looks like it might be turning into a sideways chop or range trade versus any kind of major selloff. Of course, that is exactly the thesis we have been putting out there. That there will be rotation in the market, but there will not be a major selloff as a result. Just a test/correction that is much needed, but that will not end the rally, particularly if the economic data continues to look good.

We just have to watch out for a major selloff. That may suggest (as it did in 2011) that the economic data will not hold up, and maybe ECRI is right and we will have a selloff into the summer or fall.



THE ECONOMY

Jobs continue their improvement trend. The questions relate to permanence, quality, and patience.

More people finding jobs . . .

227K new jobs, 233K private, upside December and January revisions.
8.3% unemployment even with 500K people coming back into the workforce.

Noteworthy: Participation rate rose to 63.9% from 63.7% in January BUT the unemployment rate did not rise. Typically it jumps again as people come back into the workforce.
Conclusion: Enough jobs were created to soak up those coming back into the market OR they are giving up and creating their own companies.
Disconnect: Not enough jobs to keep up with population so how could unemployment remain constant?

But will they feel this way before too long?

Reality Check 1: Those unemployed greater than 27 weeks are STILL over 50% of the unemployed. The HIGH in the 1980's deep recession was 26%. At this point in that recession we were growing at 7% GDP per quarter for several quarters with millions of quality jobs created.

Reality Check 2: Over one-half of the professional and business services sector jobs growth (45K jobs out of 84K created) were temporary jobs. Companies are still at the 'try before you buy' stage.

Reality Check 3: Job quality is poor. During the Bush years the knock on the recovery was 'job quality.' These are even worse with lower pay (wages are negative), lower end jobs. 71,000 were in private healthcare at the low end.

Reality Check 4: At the current rate of job creation, one that does not even meet population growth, it will take 10 YEARS to get back to pre-recession levels. If it improves to 350K/month it still takes 7 years!

Reality Check 5: With the very mild winter construction jobs still lost 13,000 workers. Retail, the supposed bastion of the economic recovery, lost 7,400 workers.


Not enough jobs to keep up with population growth, more people came back into the market, but unemployment rate remained steady.

Perhaps means sole proprietorships or small businesses emerging. That is a positive for the economy.

Positives and the same old negatives. Overall better than where we were.



Trade Deficit surges, but that shows we want to buy more.


Wholesale Inventories rise less than expected, but sales are less than expected as well.


TO VIEW THE ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.html



THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX. The VIX is back down to the recent levels that have led to bounces in volatility and minor corrections in the stock market. There have just been minor corrections, right? We are trading in a range, and they are somewhat related now. They have come into sync with one another, but they are not big moves. As I have said before, volatility can remain low for years while the stock market rallies. The fact that it is bouncing around in this range is not indicative that the market is about to roll over. Although the more it trades as this and shows the inability to break out, that could lead to a breakdown. But, as I said, the indices are buying time. They are trying to hold up and trying to be a little stingy with their gains. They want to hang onto them while they rest, consolidate, and prepare for the next move. You like to see stocks hold their gains because you can continue your upside without any appreciable loss. That is the sign of a healthy market.

VIX: 17.11; -0.84
VXN: 18.11; -0.94
VXO: 15.37; -0.76

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; -0.04

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 47.9% versus 51.1%. After holding flat for two weeks the bulls are fading after the pullback from the highs. Good to see the bullishness back off. It is not excessive, it is not excessively low either. They are off the 55+ level even near the highs as investors get a bit pensive. Bigger picture that is good for the upside. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 26.6% versus 25.5%. Right back up to the level three weeks back. A bit more uncertainty among bears but not running higher to levels that suggests a new surge upside. Makes sense given where the indices are. As with bulls, not excessive either way. Solidly lower after fter spending weeks at 30%ish. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +17.92 points (+0.6%) to close at 2988.34
Volume: 1.561B (-2.44%)

Up Volume: 1.13B (-30M)
Down Volume: 436.53M (+13.02M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.42 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.56 to 1

New Highs: 121 (+43)
New Lows: 21 (-1)


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +4.96 points (+0.36%) to close at 1370.87
NYSE Volume: 662M (-0.45%)

Up Volume: 2.33B (-670M)
Down Volume: 1.22B (+706.64M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.93 to 1

New Highs: 159 (+39)
New Lows: 6 (-4)


DJ30

Stats: +14.08 points (+0.11%) to close at 12922.02
Volume DJ30: 103M shares again, same as the 103M shares Thursday.


MONDAY

There is a lot of economic data even after the jobs report. We will see Retail Sales. FOMC has a rate decision on Tuesday. We will have Empire Manufacturing and the Philly Fed. We will see the PPI as well as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. All of those are pretty important based on what ECRI has been forecasting. A lot these feed more or less directly into its model. It will be an important week of economic data yet again.

I want to get back to a comment I made earlier. I said that Friday did not really answer whether there was a rally or correction, but it did leave the table set for next week to make that determination. Again I do not think there is much likelihood of a breakout unless NASDAQ and the small caps can lead the move to a breakout aided by the chips, of course and garner enough strength to pull those stocks that are set up to the downside along with them and to keep them from falling. If that happens, great. That makes us money on our upside positions. We can continue to play those because we will get more breakthroughs, but we will also have to watch a test. The best time to move in after three days to the upside is to get a test instead of buying on the breakout. Four days up. How many times has this market made a four-day move? Or five or six or seven? Not many. You get a breakout, then it comes back and makes a test, and that is when you want to play.

I do not think we will get that. If we do, we will be ready to play it when we test. For now, we will still be looking for some upside plays that look good. As noted, money is moving through the market. Just because the market moves up and down in a range does not mean that stocks will go down on the days that are down and up on the days that are up. There is rotation. Money is flowing into different, new areas and pushing those stocks higher as it comes out of some of the large cap names that have helped lead the market to this point.

The market can decline on any given day, but those stocks can rally on any given day. We will continue to look for those because they can make us money. If they are set up right and have not made big runs and are set to make the breaks and rallies, then we can continue to play those. But there are also many stocks to the downside, as noted. We have plays on the report, and we will continue to put more on. There are getting to be more downside setups about as many as there are upside. That is an indication of a market changing character. Not necessarily for a crash, of course, based upon what I have been talked about. But it is that sideways chop and maybe a bit of a deeper test. We will have to see how that plays out. But we have to be ready to play these downside plays that present themselves.

It has been tough to the downside, I admit that. You get them slapped back in your face with the "buy on the dips" mentality, but you keep putting some money their way because they will break and sell off ( perhaps pretty big). We will play the ranges now. Our expectations will be just to play the ranges, and we will even be looking at some index plays. If we are going into a range, we can play that and make money just as we can make money off of stocks trading in a range and off of indices trading in a range. At the same time we get the stocks that break out and run higher, and then we make money off of those. And there are those that break down because the money is leaving them and going elsewhere. We can money off of those as well.

There is always a way to make money in the markets. You just have to recognize what the market is doing, adjust your expectations accordingly, and make your plays within those parameters. Then you take profits when it is logical. If the market goes beyond your expectations, then you let part of it run and you will pick up gain on that. If it plays up to your expectations and turns when you think it does, then you have made your money and you go looking at the next play the other way.

I will see you on Monday for another busy week. I think we will get some consolidation for awhile. Have a great weekend!



Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2988.34

Resistance:
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low


Support:
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2856
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2676
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low


S&P 500: Closed at 1370.87

Resistance:
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

Support:
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1328
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1259
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low


Dow: Closed at 12,922.02
Resistance:
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,691
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 12,019
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low


Economic Calendar

March 5 - Monday
Factory Orders, January (10:00): -1.0% actual versus -1.9% expected, 1.4% prior (revised from 1.1%)
ISM Services, February (10:00): 57.3 actual versus 56.0 expected, 56.8 prior

March 7 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/03 (7:00): -1.2% actual versus -0.3% prior
ADP Employment Change, February (8:15): 216K actual versus 218K expected, 173K prior (revised from 170K)
Productivity-Revised, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% actual versus 0.9% expected, 0.7% prior
Unit Labor Costs - Revised, Q4 (8:30): 2.8% actual versus 1.1% expected, 1.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/03 (10:30): 0.832M actual versus 4.160M prior
Consumer Credit, January (15:00): $17.8B actual versus $12.0B expected, $16.3B prior (revised from $19.3B)

March 8 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, February (7:30): 2.0% actual versus 38.9% prior
Initial Claims, 03/03 (8:30): 362K actual versus 355K expected, 354K prior (revised from 351K)
Continuing Claims, 02/25 (8:30): 3416K actual versus 3405K expected, 3406K prior (revised from 3402K)

March 9 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 227K actual versus 206K expected, 284K prior (revised from 243K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (8:30): 233K actual versus 220K expected, 285K prior (revised from 257K)
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 8.3% actual versus 8.3% expected, 8.3% prior
Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.5 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$52.6B actual versus -$48.2B expected, -$50.4B prior (revised from -$48.8B)
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.6% expected, 1.1% prior (revised from 1.0%)


March 12 - Monday
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$229.0B expected, -$222.5B prior

March 13 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, February (8:30): 1.0% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.7% prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
FOMC Rate Decision, March (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

March 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/10 (7:00): -1.2% prior
Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$113.8B expected, -$110.3B prior
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.0% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, February (8:30): 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/10 (10:30): 0.832M prior

March 15 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/10 (8:30): 358K expected, 362K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/03 (8:30): 3415K expected, 3416K prior
Empire Manufacturing, March (8:30): 15.0 expected, 19.5 prior
PPI, February (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.1% prior
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, January (9:00): $17.9B prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): 12.5 expected, 10.2 prior

March 16 - Friday
CPI, February (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
Core CPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 78.8% expected, 78.5% prior
Michigan Sentiment, March (9:55): 76.0 expected, 75.3 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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