- A week of gains on less worry about Europe, but its troubles are not just ending.
- Michigan Sentiment tops expectations but it is still at recession levels.
- Note to Geithner: our politics are not terrible and don't ever take sides with anyone against the family again, ever.
- A bit of a pause after the week's gains would do the rally well.
- Anticipating more upside, but be ready, just in case.
Indices make it five straight even as some worry creeps back in about Europe.
Stocks were able to close out five straight upside sessions with another round of very credible gains. A great return from the prior week shortened by Labor Day and a very solid move took SP500 back near its August peak and broke NASDAQ over its August peak for a new closing high off of the August low. That puts it above its June peak and trying to extend the move, basically waiting for SP500 and the other indices to play a little catch up.
It was week marked by Europe . . . again, though this time around it was not necessarily about getting stuck in the eye with a stick. Instead some order was brought to the picture as investors believed (hoped?) things under more control, at least hoping that was occurring. Big central banks put dollar facilities in place for European banks feared to be going under. They had to rely on the ECB to help them conduct their day-to-day activities, as they were unable to obtain dollar reserves. The five largest banks in the world joined together to create a lending facility to allow European banks access to dollars. It seemed to satisfy investors further and helped extend the rally. Moreover, Germany said there would be no "uncontrolled insolvency" of Greece. As I said earlier in the week, however, that leaves the question open of a controlled insolvency, but the markets took heart from Merkel's statement nonetheless.
In general it was an an upbeat week with respect to Europe, something of a reversal of roles. Again, it beats getting stuck in the eye with a stick. Overall a positive and that allowed the stock market to rally. Other markets went the opposite way as they retrenched their moves as the stock market recovered. Those markets had rallied on the fear out of Europe. With fear subsiding somewhat, the dollar, bonds, and gold faded off of their recent sharp upside moves. Nothing major, no rollovers, just backtracking after strong moves.
One of the really bothersome issues during the week was the talk of the U.S. and its political process. This administration is really down on our political process. That is not surprising given where I think its true roots lie. Timothy Geithner was talking in Poland on Friday, and it was disturbing and offensive as a citizen to listen to him say that our "politics are terrible." He is referring to the fact that we actually debate things. In our country people have strong convictions and sometimes they disagree with what the administration wants. I'm sorry, but I think that makes our politics the best in the world. We can have this kind of debate in the open, and principled people who have strongly-held beliefs can stand up and say the emperor has no clothes without fear of retribution.
That is the fundamental strength of our system. It does not make it terrible; again, it makes it the best in the world. I don't know about you, but I have had enough of these punks in DC telling the rest of the world and all of us that because we have strong beliefs that are not in line with the leaders in D.C., that we are obstructionists, that our politics are bad and our system does not work. To the contrary, it works. We have the best system in the world when it is allowed to work versus strangling it with regulation (as I spoke about last night with respect to small business) and then picking winners and losers. More making excuses and apologizing to the world. Someone needs to give Geithner a Michael Corleone moment: don't ever again take sides with others against the family, ever.
Another example. Thursday Mr. Sanders, the socialist senator, heard someone complain in Congress about the government stepping in and picking winners and losers and how that was not its business. He said we pick winners and losers. He said that is what we do, so let's not worry about it. Let's just worry about whether we are picking the RIGHT winners and losers. That is a bald-faced admission that the government is involved where it should not be. It is no surprise given what has happened over the last three years with GM, Chrysler, AIG, with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sallie Mae, etc. The list is endless where they have intruded upon the private sector. It has become so ingrained that these pompous asses in DC think that is their job. Can they actually read? Do they comprehend what the Constitution says? Even the most rudimentary reading leads any rational person to conclude we have a limited government. It is a government with specific, enumerated powers. Nowhere in that document does it even imply the feds are empowered to take over private businesses. Where is the due process in that? The equal protection? Alas, but I digress yet again.
The market is performing well. It was five days up on the SP500 and company. It put it right at its 50 day EMA and below the August peaks. Looking at the intraday chart, stocks were a bit soft to begin with, but they rallied right away. Unfortunately they turned and sold right away as well, putting it to negative. A bit of softness early on was no problem. After this kind of move, I somewhat expected it. I also expected a little volatility given it was expiration and we are ahead of a weekend after four days of gains.
Stocks double bottomed mid-morning (isn't that so often the case?) and turned right back up and rallied. They never made it back to the session high but did a credible job of posting that fifth gain in a row.
SP500, +0.6%; NASDAQ, +0.6%; Dow, +0.66%; SP600, slightly negative at -0.04%; SOX, +0.2%.
The small caps are lagging, chasing the bus hollering "Wait for me." I do not know if the market will wait. With the economy as bad as it is, it is no wonder the small caps are struggling. On the other hand, tech and the chips are leading as they should this time of year. Friday the moves were not bad, just not great moves. Considering the market had rallied five days it is natural for moves to slow down a bit. It is hard to complain with five days up as this is the first time this occurred in quite awhile, and not bad given all of the problems confronting investors and small businesses. Indeed, we have to worry about our own country in addition to Europe. We are not strong by any means as evidenced by sentiment on Friday. Better, but it still shows we have problems.
Michigan Sentiment came in at 57.8, better than the 56.3 expected and 55.7 prior. The sad part is that the future expectations were the lowest since 1980. Things might be better right now, after bouncing back from August when everyone felt bad, but they are not good long term. People do not feel that the economy is heading in the right direction. You see that in all kinds of polls measuring popularity and anything else you can think of.
It is not a great time in America. I do not think it is quite morning in America by any stretch of the imagination as our second Summer of Recovery turned out not to be a recovery. After all, according to a Wall Street Journal poll, one in three now say that we are heading into a recession. That is not a good level of confidence in the economy. Even though the Michigan Sentiment numbers were better, numbers in the 50's are recession level. Anyone who looked at our history and were unbiased in their views would say we are in a recession based on our sentiment. Sentiment indicators are right on the button, and that is where we are.
Dollar: 1.3788 versus 1.3886 Euro. The dollar rebounded modestly. The dollar cruised up through this week, and then it sold off. Why? It rallied based on how weak Europe is. Now that there action has been taken on the continent to try to alleviate the debt crisis, the dollar pulled back. On Friday it did bounce. In the effort to play "pin the tail on the reason," a lot of the financial stations said people felt the efforts to help the European situation would not be that successful. All in all, the dollar is still in a very sharp uptrend. Looking at the DXYO, it is still holding well above this important support that were the highs hit after it broke its trend. It broke through those this week, and now it is testing them. It looks solid to make this test and then continue to the upside.
Bonds: 2.07% versus 2.08% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds overall rallied. There were a lot of auctions of U.S. notes this week, and they did well. Bonds have pulled back; in other words, yields have rallied. They pulled back in price, but it is just a normal test as we saw in late August. Still in excellent shape to move higher. That is not a great vote of economic confidence at this point, but then again, why should there be economic confidence? The numbers give no reason to believe that is the case.
Gold: $1,814.70, +33.30. Gold bounced back up after its pullback. It is trying to make a higher low. Very solid bounce. There is no reason it should not bounce. It is in an uptrend. It just had a bit of double-top action. We will see how it fares next week. It will be a very important week because it has come back to some support. It is initially trying to bounce. It may still wander back down toward the 50 day EMA and the intraday lows from the second week of August before it makes a turn back to the upside.
Oil: $87.86, -1.54. Oil closed the week down. All week oil banged its head at the 90-day resistance and was unable to move through. That is a serious resistance point. It has come back to test that level, and it had done so the past week and a half, unable to move through. Maybe trying to set up some kind of bullish move, but it is getting squeezed right here. I see no reason it should go up with the economies the way they are. This week with Europe performing supposedly better with the bailouts and what have you, it should have moved higher. It was unable to break through 90, so I do not think it will be able to break through that level now. It should turn back and sell once more.
Volume. Volume spiked higher. It was expiration Friday, so we cannot read too much into that. NASDAQ volume rallied 36% to 2.66B. NYSE volume rallied almost 60% to 1.4B.
Breadth. The advance/decline line was boring with a 1.1:1 reading advancers over decliners on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.
I want to draw attention to one of the sentiment indicators of the bulls and the bears. I reported this earlier in the week, but this bears noting again. It has only happened a few times; that is, the bears crossing over above the bulls. The bears logged a 40.9% reading, up from 37.6% this week. The bulls fell from 38.7% to 35.5%. The bullish players in the market fell below the number of bearish players in the market. It is similar to the put/call ratio that measures the number of puts to calls; when it is higher than one, that is an unusual situation. Usually bulls are more prevalent than bears. More people are out using puts, and that means there is a high level of anticipation that the market will fall.
Historically when it gets extreme, that means the market the ready to rally. It is a very important indicator when you have this crossover of the bears up through the bulls. It does not happen often. It last happened in July 2010. Then the market rallied quite nicely. Now we have a crossover here. Will we get a nice rally off of this? We have five days up, and we will see if it can continue.
SP500. SP500 bumped into the 50 day EMA as it gets close to its August peak. It still has the August peak to deal with. Then it has the November peak at 1227 before it can even consider the March closing low at 1256 and then the June low at roughly 1260. It still has room to run. That is good because even after a little pullback early next week for a day or two, that the gives it a great springboard to move higher and test those levels.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ has already broken up through its June low. It is getting into that resistance range, having cleared its highs on this rally and putting in a new closing high. That is a positive as the techs lead. They typically start to show leadership this time of the year. Up five days. They could pull back and test right into this. I do not know how deep it would go. The 50 day EMA looks like a reasonable level at 2580. It could go back a bit more. A bit of pullback gives it a ramp to rally up further into its resistance level as well.
SP600. The small caps were disappointing. They were down on the session, again trading roughly flat with a doji. They moved up to their mid-August peak. They have not even hit the August high yet, and they are struggling. The economy is weak and the data we saw this week was no better. Indeed, it was worse once more with regional manufacturing and jobless claims. There is no reason to expect small caps to perform any better. There is no reason to perform better given the "Regulation Nation" that Fox News has been detailing all week about how the regulations impact small businesses.
There is a disproportionately heavy impact on the small businesses with respect to all of these regulations being passed. It is killing our economy and our middle class, and that is the irony. The administration talks about rescuing the middle class since it is being beaten to death. The middle class are those people who have their own small businesses. They are getting ground into dust by the regulations and red tape, and they cannot make a go of it anymore. More and more are shuttering their businesses every day, and we will go into economic decline as a result. We are on our way right now. It is not going to change unless there is some change.
SOX. SOX managed a modest gain, but it has had a good move and is a bit tired. This is the time leaders often start to take the lead, and that is exactly what they did. We made some money on some stocks on the way higher this week. We will look to do that after a pullback to test this initial move.
Semiconductors/Technology. Technology was clearly the leader on the week. AAPL was moving nicely. It may have been partly due to RIMM's earnings as it gapped to the downside on its terrible showing. Of course, AAPL benefits from that as it was felt that RIMM's tablet might somehow rival the iPad. Does not look like that will be the case. AAPL the moving up toward its July high, getting some legs and sprinting well. GOOG made a little move. It bounced up to the top of its resistance range. Very important gap points here. It will be a big week for GOOG. Which way will it go?
Techs were performing just fine, and so were semiconductors. NVDA performed well this week. A nice, solid move to the upside. This was pretty much across the board. SLAB was moving higher as well. It put in a nice five-day day rally on its own. We will be looking from some pullback from these leaders in tech and semiconductors next week. It might give us a bit of entry.
China. China was not tearing things up, but it did not look bad. EDU was coming back and testing after a breakout. Looking solid. It could give us some action. We have been trying to get SNDA. It gapped higher on us on Friday over the 50 day EMA. Maybe it will test back this week and we can get in on that play as well. There is a little action in China giving things a decent look.
Retail. Retail had another good week. DG was surging higher almost 2% on Friday. DLTR had a good week as well. It was not a super move on Friday, but it had a nice week. BWLD came back to life. We took some gain off the table on Friday. There are moves out there occurring. They could use a bit of a pullback now to give us some new entry points. That is what we are expecting this week.
We have had five days to the upside. We are looking for a little pullback where we can pick up some of these leaders. We also need to watch for some downside plays. Stocks have rallied, but we have to be ready just in case they do not want to play along with the rally scenario.
VIX. Volatility started to crack on Friday. It had been holding up quite well, and that indicated that the market was still trying to bounce higher. On Thursday and Friday it did start to crack, breaking through these gap points and prior holds in the pullback. There is a bit of wiggle room here, and it did hold at the 50 day EMA. It can still bounce at this point. In other words, the market could sell off, and it would ricochet higher. It is suggesting now that maybe investors are not anticipating a selloff as much as they were. That is a positive.
The market has put in a good week, and next week will be important. The test will tell whether or not it is a normal pullback that the market can rally off of, or if the sellers will come in to rip it and flip it. Then there could be problems to the downside which would, of course, send volatility spiking.
VIX: 30.98; -0.99
VXN: 29.36; -1.31
VXO: 31.28; -1.23
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.02; 0
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 35.5% versus 38.7%. Falling sharply, down from 40.9% just three weeks back. At that important 35% level considered bullish. Has crossed down through bears, a bullish market indication. Solid move lower from 49.5% in late July. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 40.9% versus 37.6%. Big upside move and through the falling number of bulls. I said it moves quickly when it gets going. For a third week bears are over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator and have made that important crossover of bulls. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +15.24 points (+0.58%) to close at 2622.31
Volume: 2.669B (+36.87%)
Up Volume: 1.25B (-270M)
Down Volume: 1.51B (+1.052B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.14 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.98 to 1
New Highs: 35 (+10)
New Lows: 51 (-7)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +6.9 points (+0.57%) to close at 1216.01
NYSE Volume: 1.421B (+59.48%)
Up Volume: 2.47B (-1.05B)
Down Volume: 2.24B (+1.775B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.92 to 1
New Highs: 54 (+12)
New Lows: 28 (+3)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +75.91 points (+0.66%) to close at 11509.09
Volume DJ30: 425M shares Friday versus 172M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Next week there is more economic data, of course. We cannot get away from it. Tuesday Housing Starts and Permits report. We have a two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, for what that is worth. We will not hear much from them. I think there are a lot of issues the Fed has to deal with. Most people will be watching and listening very closely with respect to any Quantitative Easing or other type of stimulus from them. They will not do anything unless it becomes apparent in DC on the fiscal side that the President's so-called jobs plan is dead in water. After they give up on that, then they would like to come in with some sort of stimulus. That would help stocks given the liquidity. That is what this whole move has been based on thus far. If more comes in, stocks will enjoy it.
This is the two-day, September meeting. They said they would talk more about Quantitative Easing, but again, I do not think they will put anything out on this meeting because the President is touting his stimulus. Unless he says they will not pass it and admits defeat without a fight. It could be, because I think this is more of a campaign reelection ploy than a real jobs plan. But I still do not think the Fed will come out unless the President throws up his hands and says he cannot work with the Republicans.
Thursday you have Initial Jobless Claims and Leading Indicators. The Leading Indicators we have seen have not been very leading. They have been up, but the economy is not moving higher.
There is the economic picture. It will have some impact, but the real play is in the technical picture. Five days to the upside, a little pullback, and it sets a good ramp for a continued move higher. It is not too much rocket science at this point. I was laughing earlier because on CNBC today they were saying how everyone is being a technician right now because that is working. It always works but it is only acknowledged as working when the fundamental players cannot figure out what the heck is going on. The market goes back and forth and they see what they call value, but no one wants it.
That is the problem with value investing. A company could be a great value, but still no one wants it. Great values become even greater values they can become super values. At some point they will make a turn and be wanted. The charts show you that. You can wait until then to buy instead of putting your money in it because it is a damn good company and then waiting for six month or a year or longer for it to do something. It is just a different philosophy, kind of like Washington, DC right now, I suppose. Interestingly, one is more successful than the other.
I am looking for a pullback. It is not a good time to enter. We did not buy any new positions on Friday. Indeed, we were taking some gain off the table in AAPL and FLIR. We took those off the table, and it was worth it. Now we look for a pullback to give us some new upside positions. That is where you come in with plays at the ready. There are some great stocks that are already pulling back. There are good stocks we want to get a chance at again. We will see if we can move into those if they give us the pullback.
At the same time, you have to be ready with the just-in-case downside. Things look like they want to rally in the market overall. It is the time of the year for techs to lead and rally, and they are doing that. But if some nasty stuff comes out of Europe if all the good vibes from this week evaporate and things turn negative then we have to be ready for the downside. We already have some in hand. Some we are in are kind of sticking us in the eye right now, but they are also bumping up against resistance. If we get a bit of pullback, we can look at those and take them to the downside, or at least get a better exit point.
What is the culmination? I think we will get a bit of a pullback. Looking at NASDAQ's chart, it has already broken through its June low. So it comes back and tests, and then it makes a new bounced to the upside. That is what we are looking for. I do not think this move is dead yet. I think the liquidity generated by the ECB and the other central banks will have a lingering effect. I think that will make investors anticipate some kind of Quantitative Easing by the Fed. That gives this rally additional legs. We will look to play it more to the upside, particularly after a pullback. Then we will look for the downside. If it turns over and starts to fall after that, then we will be ready to play that. But we also have to be ready this week in case the that good will engendered this past week dissipates on some news out of Europe.
I hate to say it, but Europe is driving this right now along with some technical aspects. We have to play the technical aspects with an idea that the European problem could arise once more and wreck everything. You cannot play solely on that, however. You do not know when that will happen. You look at what stocks are setting up as leadership. They have been doing that and have started to the upside. You play those, and then you take some profits when it is reasonable to do so. Then you continue to play the move as far as you can.
That has been the plan. That has what we have been doing all along in this trading range, and we are not about to stop. Next week we will see if we get a pullback that gives us more entries for some upside to make additional money.
Have a great weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2622.31
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2705
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2759 is the May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low
2593 is the November intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 2582
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2512 is last week's gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows
S&P 500: Closed at 1216.01
The 50 day EMA at 1218
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1234 is the August 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1283
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 11,509.09
11,555 is the March low
The 50 day EMA at 11,570
The August low at 11,700
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
The 200 day SMA at 12,001
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
September 13 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$134.2B actual versus -$132.0B expected, -$129.4B prior (revised from -$90.5B)
September 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/10 (7:00): +6.3% actual versus -4.9% prior
MBA Mortgage Purchas, 09/10 (7:00): -4.9% prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Crude Inventories, 09/10 (10:30): -6.7M actual versus -3.963M prior
September 15 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 428K actual versus 410K expected, 417K prior (revised from 414K)
Continuing Claims, 09/03 (8:30): 3726K actual versus 3700K expected, 3738K prior (revised from 3717K)
CPI, August (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.5% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Empire Manufacturing, September (8:30): -8.8 actual versus -4.0 expected, -7.7 prior
Current Account Balance, Q2 (8:30): -$118.0B actual versus -$121.5B expected, -$119.3 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): 0.2% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.9% prior (no revisions)
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 77.4% actual versus 77.4% expected, 77.3% prior (revised from 77.5%)
Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): -17.5 actual versus -10.0 expected, -30.7 prior
September 16 - Friday
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, July (9:00): $9.5B actual versus $3.7B prior
Michigan Sentiment, September (9:55): 57.8 actual versus 56.3 expected, 55.7 prior
September 19 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , September (10:00): 15 expected, 15 prior
September 20 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, August (8:30): 592K expected, 604K prior
Building Permits, August (8:30): 588K expected, 597K prior
FOMC Rate Decision, September (14:15): 0.25% prior
September 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/17 (7:00): +6.3% prior
Existing Home Sales, August (10:00): 4.70M expected, 4.67M prior
Crude Inventories, 09/17 (10:30): -6.7M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, September (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
September 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/17 (8:30): 417K expected, 428K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 3730K expected, 3726K prior
FHFA Housing Price I, July (10:00): 0.9% prior
Leading Indicators, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.5% prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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