Sunday, August 21, 2011

Second Bounce May Set up for More Downside


- Good start to the week and the relief rally, but that bounce was rolled by more European and US economic worries.
- Friday finds stocks back down at the summer 2010 base highs and last week's lows.
- JPM and Citi join the party, and MS, in downgrading the US economic outlook.
- Second test of Summer 2010 base: double bottom or a continuation of a new rollover?
- Ready to play a second bounce, but as a setup for more downside.


Stocks are back where they started two weeks back, trying to put in a second bottom.

Stocks ended the week where they found themselves two weeks ago, sitting on top of the Summer 2010 consolidation base. That inverted head and shoulders was the springboard for the two legs to the upside into January of 2011. Of course, that was aided by QE2 that Bernanke announced after his Jackson Hole summit in late August. Lo and behold, on Friday next week there is another Jackson Hole economic summit by the Federal Reserve chairman. Many people are looking that way for some salvation for a market that has given up the entirety of that run off of the QE2 implementation.

It was a good start for the week. On Monday stocks blew through the 10 day EMA. They looked to have broken free, ready to continue a nice relief bounce either to that November peak or all the way up to the March and June lows at 1260 on the SP500. It was not to be. Even though there was some poor economic data on Monday with Empire Manufacturing coming in negative yet again, the market still managed to rally. Tuesday is where it ran into trouble, however. It reversed but it did not totally give up the move.

What was the problem? More economic data. Housing Starts were not good, but Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization topped expectations and were at levels not seen for two to three years. There was improvement there. Nonetheless, the market met its old nemesis, and that would be the problems with Europe. Europe is teetering on the verge of collapse. Germany may be the only one left standing in terms of the economy. That would be kind of ironic. I know no one wants to hear it, but history has a great sense of irony sometimes. In World War II, Germany tried to take over all of Europe and basically the rest of the world. Now, since it went through all the austerity measures before anyone else, its economy could be the only surviving member in Europe. I know the times and the motives are totally different, but if you are a student of history, you will notice the ironies.

It is also ironic that the U.S. is trying to pull out of its recession (I call it a depression) by using the same tactics that prolonged the 1930's depression and the 1970's recession. They like to call this the Great Recession, but it is really a depression. It will turn into a longer-term depression if we continue to implement these policies. But all will be well. We all know that President Obama knows what to do, and he will tell us all about it on September 5th or thereabouts.

Herman Cain, one of the Republican presidential hopefuls, has an interesting plan that he calls 9-9-9. He wants to reduce taxes for individuals and corporations to 9% and he wants to implement a 9% sales tax. I am not sure what the other 9 is. The ultimate goal is to eliminate the income tax entirely and put it all into a national sales tax. It will be interesting to see what the President comes up with. As we all know, it will basically be a political campaign ploy versus a real attempt to help the economy. Some will say I am cynical, and some are saying I would rather see the economy go down. That is not true. I just know what the President has said in the past. I know his past, and I know what is most important to him based on his actions and what he has said. I am not going to attribute anything to anybody that their actions and speech do not warrant.

After that digression, I will turn back to what happened on the week. Wednesday we had the PPI, and it was hotter than expected. Look at that core, jumping up 0.4%, twice what was anticipated. Thursday was very important data. Jobless claims are back over 400K no surprise there. The CPI was up to 0.5%, more than twice expectations. Existing Home Sales were terrible. Really plunging. The Philly Fed was -30.7. Manufacturing is in trouble. We all know manufacturing helped lead the economy out of the recession. Although, when you look at it, manufacturing was it. That was the zenith for the recovery, and it was all aided by the liquidity.

The market figured it out. It is worried about Europe, it is worried over just about everything economically, and it sold off. Again it finds itself at those August 2010 peaks, trying to hold. It is also above the August 2011 peak. There are possibilities here. Indeed, there are some very smart market players out there who believe the market is putting in a double bottom and will bounce off of this. It is definitely a "scare them out" market versus a "wear them out" market. There are dives lower, big spikes to the upside, and dives back downside. It definitely had the extremes hit on breadth, on new lows, on the VIX, and on the put/call ratio. You name it.

The bulls versus the bears are basically unchanged, and I find that totally shocking. I read this in Investor's Business Daily. Bulls levels are at 46.2% (47% the prior week), and bears were flat at 23.7%. Not a budge even with all the negatives.

Friday the market failed to find any traction yet again. It started lower. There was no economic news released, so it was just falling of its own accord, but it did reverse. All of the indices traded higher in that first hour and a half, looking solid. But that was it, and they could not hold the move. They sold back and continued to bleed off the rest of the session. They closed with losses once again, and they were again back down at that early-August low and the summer of 2010 highs.

NASDAQ, -1.6%; SP500, -1.5%; Dow, -1.6%; SP600, -1.5%; SOX, -1.8%.

It was a pretty good licking' once again. Some commentators noted and this was true and humorous in a macabre sense that this was this was not much of a selloff compared to what we have seen of late with the volatility. It is sliding down to the prior lows just to get out of town ahead of the weekend. I felt there might have been some short covering coming. It started early in the morning, but it could not hold. It had been a whopping downside week, and I felt the shorts might not want to be short over the weekend. I guess they figured there is more chance of a bad news story coming out of Europe than there is of something positive coming from anywhere else in the world.

Accordingly, stocks slid down and closed at the session low. Interestingly, JPM and Citi joined MS in saying that the U.S. economy was cruddy and heading lower versus improving. JPM reduced its Q4 GDP estimate to 1% versus the 2.5% forecasted prior. The Q1 of 2012 was reduced to 0.5%. Took them long enough. Things are definitely not improving, and there is little hope of improvement. That is the key looking ahead. Markets forecast into the future, and what hope is there of improvement?

Leading Economic Indicators may have risen for July, but those indicators are notoriously incorrect. The ECRI does not look as rosy as it has in the past. It is turning back down as well. When you see the trends, there is nothing to really promote rising stock prices. Yes, there are profits in large corporations, but they are holding that money. There is no reason to spend the money given the policies in place, and that is something we have seen many times in several episodes over U.S. economic history.

When there is no reason to spend the money because the risk/reward is not there (due to regulation, government intervention, etc.), the money is not spent. It has time, and it waits for a conducive environment. Maybe it is Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan or something like it that will unleash it. I guarantee you that infrastructure spending, pump-priming projects, and repackaged Keynesian ideas are not going to work. I was texting back and forth with some colleagues today, and I posed this question to all: Is this economic performance the last bit of evidence we need to once and for all debunk Keynesian theories and forever throw them on the scrap heap of economic ideas? To a man and woman, they all said yes. This has proved again that it does not work.

The market is not showing any reason put in any kind of sustained rally. It has to have something positive to factor in. It may bounce from here. It may very well be a second bottom. I have talked about how I think the market could rise back up from here with, for example, SP500 rallying near the 1260 level. Or maybe it takes out that November peak but tops the recent high it rolled over from this week, forming that downside ABCD pattern that leads to more selling. We will see. I think there very well could be a bounce from this level. It is a key level with the very extreme indicators that were shown the past two weeks in terms of new lows, breadth, volatility, put/call ratio, and fear levels in general. I think it could put in a bounce here and make that little double bottom. I do not think there will be a breakout of the range. I anticipate a rollover and further selling back down to (or through) the bottom of the 2010 base.


Dollar: 1.4394 versus 1.4335 Euro. The dollar fell slightly. It was up; it was down; and it closed in the middle of the road for the day. With Europe teetering, you would think the dollar would be rising sharply. It is a testament to the U.S. weakness that it is not. It remains muddled in its five-week lateral move after falling out of the base that was trying to consolidate its trend break. It is tenacious, I will say that. It reminds me of oil when it would not break down for so long but finally did. It kept moving laterally and kept trying to fight back, but it ultimately broke. That may be the plight of the dollar. I do not know. It is waiting as it seems everyone else is on what the Fed will do. Maybe someone is waiting on what Mr. Obama says, but I think the market figured out what kind of stimulus he would propose. The market is more focused on what Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will do come next week at Jackson Hole. Will there be another late-summer Quantitative Easing or some other form of Quantitative Easing announcement that the market can latch hold of and rally under the promise of renewed liquidity?

Bonds: 2.07% versus 2.08% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds were on an incredible tear. For the week, it touched down below 2%, hitting 1.97% on the 10 year yield on Wednesday. As I noted before, the all-time low for the 10 year is 1.67%, hit back in 1945. Bonds are on a tear because of fear for the U.S. economy and fear around the world for global economies. That fear is pushing back worries of inflation for the moment.

Gold: $1,851.50, +29.50. Gold is the barometer of fear, and it may be making a blow-off top. It may not be. It closed well off of its high. A very strong move underway by gold even though it closed off of its high significantly. Unbelievable run. It is getting into absurd overbought conditions, but fear has a way of continuing until the lemmings run out of land.

Oil: $82.26, -0.12. Oil closed basically flat. It was trying to double bottom, similar to the market. It sold off sharply as anticipated and it bounced as anticipated. Now it is on the selloff again. There is some important support from October and November of 2010, and it is again trying to hold those levels. It was trading to them on the Friday low and reversing to close flat. Very important move for oil. I would love to see it break down because a lot of people say it just means the economy is going to pot. It already is we do not have to worry about that. We need to worry about whether consumers can make it through the next downturn, and lower oil prices would help them do just that.



Volume. There was nothing spectacular on Friday. Volume was lower, down 14% on NASDAQ to 2.3B shares. It fell 5.7% on the NYSE to 1.4B shares.

Breadth. Breadth was nondescript at -2.5:1 on NASDAQ and -2.75:1 on the NYSE. These are not extreme numbers.

New lows. 322 NASDAQ and 332 on NYSE. Recall that they were spiking to close to 1500 and 1900 on the prior selloff. With the indices not hitting those lows, you would not expect New Lows to be spiking yet. Therefore everything remains in place.

There were the massively negative internals on the initial plunge. There was a rebound, and now there is another spike in volatility as the indices have fallen back to the prior August lows as well as the Summer 2010 base highs.


SP500. SP500 is in the position where it can bounce and form that ABCD downside pattern. It could also just bounce and make the break to the upside. I seriously doubt that, but you always watch the market and take what it gives. Position yourself accordingly, but when it comes to more than just determining near-term moves, it is all utter speculation. You see support level after support level broken on the way down. A support level is only good until it holds. Similar to a pattern being just a pretty picture until it can deliver the break.

We are at a key support level. We will see if we get the bounce out of SP500 that may make the breakout. More likely it will just be another bounce that ultimately rolls back over.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is very similar. It put in a closing low below the prior August closing low, but it is still holding above the 2010 base peaks. NASDAQ is in the same position. It could form an ABCD because there is still a lower low here, but it would have to be more of a traditional double bottom to bounce it. We will see. A lot of resistance here as well. Lots of overhead resistance throughout. It started with the last part of the rally in late 2010, and then this long trading range that broke down.

SP600. SP600 was down 1.5%. It is also at the early-August lows and at the highs of the 2010 base. Same position, same situation as NASDAQ. It put in a new closing low on Friday, but it still has an intraday low that is deeper. We will see if it can put in its own double-bottom bounce. Again, a lot of people are anticipating it, but it has to prove it. I think it could definitely bounce given those extreme measures.

SOX. SOX was down 1.8%. It put in a closing low as well, but perhaps it can set up a double bottom and rally along with the rest of the market. It is at those important four lows from late spring and early summer 2010 that it bounced off successively. It built a decent support level at that range.

All of the indices are at a level where they can bounce. All of them hit extremes on the internals a week ago. They have rallied, that rally failed, and they have come back. Volatility has spiked again. Those old negative extremes are still in place. The indices are still in a position where they can bounce. I expect to see a bounce, but we may not get it. If we do get it, we have to keep our heads and realize it likely will not be the bounce that takes the market out of its troubles.

September and October are still ahead. These are not good times for the economy and not good times for the market. We need something to give us a reason to feel that people will invest back in the United States. There is no investment in the United States right now. I repeat this because it is the same situation we had in the 1970's. There was no reason to invest in the United States.

Right now, with other markets more open than they were back in the 70's, there is even less reason to invest in the United States. Thus money is moving out of the country, and it is staying out of the country from companies that are domestic but earn the money overseas. We have a government that would just as soon drive business overseas than have it stay in the U.S. I do not care what they say about how badly they want to create jobs. They will drive capital offshore if they promulgate and enact policies through Congress or, as we are seeing now, by doing end-runs with executive orders when Congress will not pass what the White House wants. At a minimum, they will make that capital go undercover until there is a change in the policies. We have seen this in history, and it is happening again. There needs to be a dramatic change in policy for businesses from the U.S. and around the world to feel safe about investing in this country once more.

That is why these companies have billions of dollars that they are not doing anything with. If they do something with it, they are afraid the economic environment will not give them as good a return as they need. And if they are successful, they will be a target for the federal government to tax them or take what they have made by putting out the risk.


Most leadership has been destroyed. What we are looking at for upside plays in the market are strong stocks that have come back and formed either patterns that will allow them to rise or have come back to support and want to bounce off of that level. Looking at BIDU, you can see what I am talking about. It is one I put on the report last night, and it has an ABCD pattern set up. There is a strong move and an ABCD. The D point is right at the 200 day EMA. CMG has also set up an ABCD pattern to the upside, and those can bounce.

What I would look for in any bounce are those name brand, household names we talk about that people want to own when they make a move higher. That could also include AAPL. It is not an ABCD, but we could see it set one up early next week. If this last selloff comes down to this prior support level, that would be a beautiful ABCD pattern. We are seeing a total fear trade right now for the stocks that are rallying. MCD is moving higher just because people feel that you have to eat. When people are in times of trouble, they look for comfort food. They will eat out at MCD because it is cheaper and it has comfort food. The stock is performing well.

There are also the beaten-down stocks. These stocks are just sold out and are not going down anymore. RIMM is one of those. It is a takeover speculation play. That is really what is propping it up here, but I do not care what is driving it. If it has a good pattern and moves higher and I can make money off of it, I will. PCLN has sold down to an important support level. This could be a stock that provides a rebound play if the market wants to make a bounce this coming week.

We will be looking at a lot of these stocks. The patterns are not necessarily pretty, but if there is a bounce in the market if this double bottom theory is right or our ABCD theory is correct we can make money off of these stocks. We will just have to see what kind of negatives come out of the weekend with the rest of the world and the U.S.



VIX. Volatility is doing the old double spike here. I talked about that this week, saying that often there will be a twin spike in volatility as it makes its highs. It did the same thing in the summer of 2010, and pretty much every time you go back in history and see spikes in the VIX, you see double spikes. It is typically not a one-day event. The bigger rally comes a few days to weeks after the initial run. We saw an initial bounce off on the markets when the volatility levels spiked. Now the market has rolled back town to the prior lows, and volatility has spiked again. We will see if it helps put the bottom in and starts the market back to the upside in the second bounce I am anticipating.

VIX: 43.05; +0.38
VXN: 43.47; +1.86
VXO: 42.4; +1.47

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.33; -0.16

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Not pricing in a lot of fear, the one indicator that is not showing the high levels that would suggest a turn.

Bulls: 46.2% versus 47.2%. Still hanging around at this same level, surprisingly not spiking higher with the market issues. Hit 49.5% a month back. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 23.7% versus 23.7%. Bears holding steady as well, down from 24.7% three weeks back. Again going the wrong way. Still up from the 21.5% a month back and still off the July high near 28%. The 35% level is considered bullish for the market overall. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -38.59 points (-1.62%) to close at 2341.84
Volume: 2.364B (-14.25%)

Up Volume: 458.26M (+394.28M)
Down Volume: 1.82B (-900M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.56 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 9.07 to 1

New Highs: 8 (+3)
New Lows: 322 (+65)





Stats: -17.12 points (-1.5%) to close at 1123.53
NYSE Volume: 1.405B (-5.7%)

Up Volume: 802.55M (+609.86M)
Down Volume: 4.53B (-1.59B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.75 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 9.39 to 1

New Highs: 52 (-12)
New Lows: 332 (+74)




Stats: -172.93 points (-1.57%) to close at 10817.65
Volume DJ30: 336M shares Friday versus 309M shares Thursday.



There is more economic data, although none of it is heavy hitting like we had this week. We have New Home Sales on Tuesday. That is important because we had Existing Home Sales the week before and they were terrible. Durable Orders are out on Wednesday. We have Jobless Claims once again on Thursday. Hope springs eternal; they have them back down to 400K with the early expectations. Then you have the second read of GDP on Friday. It is expected to fall, showing now at 1.1%. That might be a bit optimistic. Things have not picked up; they have gone the other way. I do not expect anything major to the upside.

I want to look at SP500 again because it summarizes everything pretty well. On SP500 we are looking to see if there is a second bounce to play next week. I said if the market failed at the 10 day EMA on this bounce that it would indicate that things were extremely bad in the U.S. economy. Maybe worse than I figured or maybe not. I did not think it would be good in any case. It has failed at that point. The question now is whether the indices will just break through the prior August lows and down into that 2010 base.

If they go straight down from there, that is not good at all. If we bounce higher, it is not necessarily good either, but we can make an upside play out of it. A drop from here does not do us any good. We cannot really play a drop from where the indices closed on Friday. There has already been a big gap lower on Thursday that took a lot of our plays out of contention. That is unfortunate because there were some grand setups. At least we got into some of them. We took some good gains on Friday from some of our downside positions, such as FOSL. It sold early and we took some nice gain off the table. We took some gain off our new LLL position. We finally locked down the rest of the WMBD because it did not look like it would break lower in its pattern. We also look some gain on RAX. EMN was one we just entered. We took some gain there as it sold off but looked like it was holding.

We banked some nice gain on the positions we did get into, and we could have gotten into a dozen more. We are making excellent money on these to the downside. But as I said, it is not necessarily a great place to enter new downside positions. We have to let them set up again. Frankly, the best bet for that is the ABCD I am talking about with the D point coming up somewhere around 1250-1260 on the SP500. We will be watching for that. I anticipate a bounce here. I may be totally wrong, but the indicators were so extreme that this bounce has not unwound what they have done. I think the rubber band is still tight, and they could bounce up one more time before they dissipate and roll back over.

That is what we will be looking to play. Again, if it breaks lower from here there is nothing we can do. We will just have to say "oh, well" and let them set up again. On any bounce we will look for the name brands that I talked about in the leaders and will play those to the upside. We will do the same thing we have done before. As the index moves higher, we will be taking some of our downside off the table. We will start moving into the downside as the move starts to peter out. We cannot wait until the total breakdown comes. We will do what we did: pick up two or three a day to the downside. Then when it breaks we will be well-positioned to take advantage of the fall.

Not a rosy prognosis at all about the future or for the market necessarily. The thing we need to focus on is how we make money in bad times as well as good times. These would definitely qualify as bad times, but we still have to focus on making money. We have made a lot of money during this market volatility. We have had to eat some positions, and that is not fun. We also know they are not necessarily out of contention. With the volatility in this market, things reverse rapidly both upside and downside as we have seen. We have made money on certain positions that maybe we were damn lucky to. Look at the QID position that we had a while back. It gapped away from us and got down, but when the market sold off we ended up making over 70-80% on that position. With this kind of volatility, you will get under water somewhat with the big gaps, but a lot of times it will bail you out.

Mind your positions the best you can. Maximize the gain, minimize the pain, and we will be just fine. We will ride this through as we always have, and we will come out on the other end with more money than we realize. When you look at your account, hopefully you are seeing what I see and it is performing quite well.

Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2341.84

2469 is the November 2010 low
2512 is last week's gap down point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
The 20 day EMA at 2552
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2599 is the June 2011 low
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
The 50 day EMA at 2651
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 200 day SMA at 2707
2759 is the May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1123.53
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
The 20 day EMA at 1208
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1234 is the August 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
The 50 day EMA at 1255
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1285
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

1109 is the mid-September gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 10,817.65
11,178 from November 2010
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
The 20 day EMA at 11,505
11,555 is the March low
The August low at 11,700
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
The 50 day EMA at 11,889
The 200 day SMA at 11,993
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

August 23 - Tuesday
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 310K expected, 312K prior

August 24 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/20 (7:00): +4.1% prior
Durable Orders, July (8:30): 2.0% expected, -1.9% prior (revised from -2.1%)
Durable Orders -ex T, July (8:30): -0.4% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.1%)
FHFA Housing Price I, June (10:00): 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/20 (10:30): 4.233M prior

August 25 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/20 (8:30): 400K expected, 408K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/13 (8:30): 3700K expected, 3702K prior

August 26 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q2 (8:30): 1.1% expected, 1.3% prior
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate, Q2 (8:30): 2.3% expected, 2.3% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, August (9:55): 55.4 expected, 54.9 prior

August 15 - Monday
Empire Manufacturing, August (8:30): -7.70 actual versus -0.4 expected, -3.76 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (9:00): $3.7B actual versus $23.6B prior
NAHB Housing Market Index, August (10:00): 15 actual versus 15 expected, 15 prior

August 16 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, July (8:30): 604K actual versus 608K expected, 613K prior (revised from 629K)
Building Permits, July (8:30): 597K actual versus 606K expected, 617K prior (revised from 624K)
Export Prices ex-agriculture, July (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Import Prices ex-oil, July (8:30): 0.2% actual versus -0.1% prior
Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.9% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 77.5% actual versus 77.0% expected, 76.9% prior (revised from 76.7%)

August 17 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/13 (7:00): +4.1% actual versus +21.7% prior
PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.0% expected, -0.4% prior
Core PPI, July (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Crude Inventories, 08/13 (10:30): 4.233M actual versus -5.225M prior

August 18 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/13 (8:30): 408K actual versus 400K expected, 399K prior (revised from 395K)
Continuing Claims, 08/6 (8:30): 3702K actual versus 3698K expected, 3695K prior (revised from 3688K)
CPI, July (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Core CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 4.67M actual versus 4.87M expected, 4.84M prior (revised from 4.77M)
Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): -30.7 actual versus 1.0 expected, 3.20 prior
Leading Economic Indicators, July (10:00): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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