- Jobs defy other indications, beat expectations, spark a new rally, but again the market finds it hard to hold.
- Slowest economic recovery outside the Great Depression shows jobs improvement, but with jobless claims surging, can it last.
- Gold rebounds but oil and other commodities continue their struggle.
- NASDAQ and SP500 move again above the February high but cannot seal the deal. Still in good shape, but have to prove they want to move higher.
Market gets its catalyst to move higher and does, but it cannot hold the move.
Thursday was a volatile session, and Friday was no slouch itself. The jobs report topped expectations and stocks surged higher. Futures were up and stocks gapped higher on the open, looking very solid. They tested and then rallied to a new high that took NASDAQ and the SP500 above the February peak once again. Then they started to test. Right before lunch they started a long downtrend that lasted through the afternoon session and into the last hour. It took SP500 almost to negative. It dropped both NASDAQ and SP500 below the February peak. The market rallied back in that last hour to make things look fairly decent. They did just manage to break through that downtrend of the afternoon, but they were still well off the highs at the close.
NASDAQ lost over 40 points off of its high before that late rebound. The Dow lost close to 200 points off of its high before it, too, managed to bounce late on the session. All the indices managed to post gains on the day. NASDAQ, +0.5%; SP500, +0.4%; Dow, +0.43%; SP600, +0.4%; SOX, +0.75%; NASDAQ 100, +0.34%.
There were some great moves, up 1% or more on the session. It certainly did not finish that way as investors did not know if they wanted to keep stocks moving higher ahead of the weekend. There is still enough confusion with the economic data even with the jobs report. As a matter of fact, there is some confusion with the jobs report itself. Given a week that was marked by many misstatements about what exactly happened with the killing of Osama Bin Laden, it was only fitting that there was indecision and internal inconsistencies with economic reports and other actions with respect to the economic and financial markets.
It was an amazing week without a doubt, starting with the Osama Bin Laden shooting. It was somewhat diminished by the incredibly divergent stories coming out of the people within the administration even who actually ordered the strike itself. Nonetheless, it was a great achievement. On that Monday, the market was not able to hold the move on the news, however. It gapped and rolled over. That was okay. The market had rallied well in the first two weeks of earnings, and it broke out of the February highs and was ready to test. It did make the test, and we were looking for that. I was pleased with what I was seeing.
Thursday was wild. That was when we ECB did not raise interest rates and did not say magic words with respect to "remaining vigil'" on its interest rate and watch over inflation. That put the markets in a tailspin. What did the ECB know that they did not? Were things getting worse an expected? There were concerns about a slowdown in China with its stock market tumbling for over two weeks with straight declines. There was a concern that perhaps it had gone too far in its austerity plans and there was going to be a slowdown in that economy. All it needed was the ECB to not raise rates and hedge its bets a bit, and the commodities markets sold off like a stone.
Oil, gold, and silver all fell sharply on Thursday. It was quite a dramatic decline. Of course silver had been falling the entire week. Thursday was pretty much the crescendo move where it hit its bottom, so to speak, near term. It has been such a dramatic decline. Equally impressive was the dollar's explosion to the upside. If the ECB stopped raising rates and was concerned, that made the dollar more interesting from a safety standpoint if nothing else. The dollar surged and, of course, the surge exacerbated the decline in dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
Friday was a bit of a disappointment, but in the end, the market did as expected on the week. In other words, it tested the breakout above the February peaks. The indices came below the February high, but that does not necessarily mean they will not be able to continue to the upside. There were plenty of surprises along the way this week, so it was not just a normal pullback as it looked to be. Come Tuesday and even Wednesday, things got a little dicey as the week wore on. In the end, once again, it has made the pullback. It is still in a position to rally even though on Friday both SP500 and NASDAQ gave up recoveries above the February high. They were once again unable to hold a rally on good news.
That was understandable on Monday because the market was at the apex of the run. On Friday it was not such great action because the market had spent the week pulling back. It was at a logical support level and got a catalyst; it had the impetus to move back to the upside. The indices did move higher, but they just could not hold that definitive move. That cast a bit of a question with what happens next week in the market. A little question.
Overall, the indices are still in good shape to move higher. There is reason to, not the least of which is the Fed still injecting money into the economies with its liquidity pump. Even though QE II will officially end, we also know the Fed will maintain its balance sheet. It will have to keep reinvesting the money it makes on all of those mortgage-backed securities and other piles of crap that it put on its balance sheet in order to help the financial institutions recover from sure collapse. Some of them probably should have collapsed judging by the way they ran their business before the financial crisis and by their complete inability to make money even when getting free money from the Fed after the economic crisis
Dollar: 1.4351 versus 1.4538 Euro. The dollar was continuing its strength. This was an amazing run. The dollar hit 1.49+ Euro just on Wednesday, and then we had the massive reversal. Took a little help from its friends from the ECB and Trichet when it failed to raise interest rates. That automatically strengthened the dollar versus the Euro, and already the dollar was in position to bounce. It moved laterally for almost a week and had fallen quite sharply off of its resistance at the 20 day EMA.
It was ready to move, and it made that move in one day on Thursday. On Friday it broke through. This is the first time it has been through the 20 day EMA on a closing basis since back in February when it first started this downtrend and bumped up into the 50 day EMA on the high and rolled over. Will it roll over here? It depends on what the markets feel about what the world economies will do. Is China going to pull back out of its funk? Will India continue to grow? Will the US continue to show some growth even though, jobs report on no jobs report, it is lackluster growth?
The dollar is bouncing. The next logical target is the 50 day EMA, which is roughly coincident with that mid-March low. That still is an unknown quantity as to how serious this move is. The first two days were definitely serious. It has not put in two upside days such as it did on Thursday and Friday since way back in late February of this year when it rallied to that second high and failed, rolling over into this current downtrend. Very strong move by the dollar. We will have to see how it pans out.
Bonds: 3.15% versus 3.16% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds enjoyed another strong week, though Friday they tried to give it back. That is understandable given the jobs report that beat expectations. That threw bonds back on their heels and they sold, bumping rates higher. Then they recovered as the session wore on, closing basically flat. On the high, the 10 year traded at 3.23%, so there were significant moves intraday. Overall bonds remained elevated. The very important fact is, despite the move on Friday from jobs, it did not derail bonds. It set them back, but it did not derail the move. Next week will tell more of the story. You have to be somewhat impressed and equally concerned that bonds continued to hold their gains and their recent uptrend given the supposed strength in the jobs report.
Gold: $1,494.00, +12.40. After a couple of real negative sessions, gold bounced back modestly on Friday. Credible bounce. It still closed off of its high, but gold held at the 50 day EMA and is still very much in its uptrend above those three peaks spanning November, December, and January. Gold does not look like it is in a lot of trouble. Whenever you have such a serious blow down, however, you have to see if there was any real damage done. Next week will tell more of the story with respect to the yellow metal.
Oil: $97.55, -2.25. Oil took a major hit. It broke its trend in a big way. Thursday was a massive drop, and Friday it fell further. It managed to bounce off of its lows that matched some support levels from late February and late March. We will see if it can hold. There has been a lot of damage done. Lo and behold, in early May, oil is already below $100 per barrel. Remember, the Gulf CEO said it would be below $100 by July. I guess he was a little conservative, but he had the right idea.
Gasoline at the wholesale level sold $0.25 on Thursday. Mr. Eric Holder is already issuing a letter, wanting to investigate and make sure that the gasoline prices decline rapidly. This Attorney General is, with all due respect, an idiot. What he pursues and what he does not is amazing. Voter intimidation is okay but, by golly, if someone makes one more penny than the federal government thinks they should make, they will investigate that person or company. The lack of understanding of economic markets is staggering with this administration. I am going to over speak, but other regimes have promoted the same policies that this administration does. History has shown they did not work. But I digress. I am just a little bitter about some of this, but I'll get over it.
Suffice it to say that if the wholesale prices of gasoline fall $0.25 in a day, we will see prices drop over the next few weeks if oil stays down. Why does it not drop immediately? The guys who just bought this gasoline paid a lot of money for it. They will not lower prices unless they have to. They may be forced in order to get rid of it. I know people are saying they will wait a week or two if they can before filling the tank in order to get a cheaper price. They may be able to wait it out and these guys will have to drop their prices. They will not drop it right away because they paid a lot to get that gasoline. They would like to be able to drop it, but if they do, they will incur a loss or significantly impact their profits. That is why, Mr. Holder, they do not immediately drop the price of their gasoline.
In any event, oil is on the decline. There will be a drop in energy prices well as a result, and that should please just about everybody.
Volume. Volume fell to 2B shares on NASDAQ after being solid all week. A bit disappointing on the upside that volume sold, but at least it did not reverse on massive volume. Volume was down 8% on the NYSE to 1B shares. Decent trade, just not huge.
Breadth. Breadth was 1.5:1 on the NASDAQ and very mediocre. It was up 2:1 on the NYSE. Not bad, but hardly anything great. With all the up and down in the market, it is not surprising that we had relatively lackluster breadth.
SP500. SP500 surged higher, moving through the February peak. It could not hold that move, closing right on the 20 day EMA. It is still testing the breakout above that February peak and the inverted head and shoulders. It is still positive overall and still in good position to move higher: Unfortunately it was just unable to react to good news. It had its pullback and the trigger it needed, but it could not hold. Maybe it is just concerned about what commodities are doing and how they will react Monday when the final margin requirements are put in place. Maybe after that they will move higher. We will see. All I can say is it is well poised to move higher. It just was not able to hold that move on Friday.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was similar. It gapped to the upside and rallied through the February peak. It could not hold the move, falling back through. It, too, is holding the 20 day EMA. It is still well-positioned to make the break higher. But this reversal day is somewhat concerning when it looked like there was some pretty good data to trigger an upside move. We will have to see how it plays out as well.
SP600. SP600 was up 0.4%. Same action. It is still above its February peak because it broke above it a long time ago. It is struggling at a gap up point. It moved through it, could not hold it, and closed down below that level. It is also in position to make a higher low and continue to move upside. It is right above the 50 day EMA, so it all looks good. It just has to put the move together. If this is a normal pullback it should do that. If it is not and is something more sinister, we will have more trouble in holding that 50 day EMA.
SOX. SOX had a decent day itself. Up 0.75%, but it also gave back a large chunk on the day. It is still below this recent range. It is lagging. Not a great pattern, but it can move if the rest of the market moves. It just has to do it. The market right now is in position to make its move after the pullback. It was just iffy on Friday as it was unable to make that break stick when it had a good reason to move to the upside.
Industrial. CAT is continuing us bounce up its 50 day EMA. It gapped higher on Friday. It could not make the entire move hold, but looks like it may bounce higher yet again and continue its move up the 50 day EMA. DE is not so fortunate. It gapped back up to the 50 day EMA but reversed to close basically flat on the session. Struggling. Industrials are mixed. A lot of sectors we noted last week were mixed internally. Some were performing fine and other stocks in the sector were not.
Technology. AAPL looks good, moving laterally in a nice range. FFIV is trying to make a break higher, but it is stagnating a bit. ADTN still looks positive for another move to the upside. CERN had a nice bounce on Friday from a very nicely-formed flag pattern. We will see if it can make something out of that. PLXS looked good. It may try to make a break higher off a little ABCD pattern. Very interesting indeed.
Financial. Financials kind of stunk it up on Friday. JPM tried to gap higher but was stalling at the 50 day EMA and falling. GS is just moving laterally, getting pushed down. A descending triangle over support. We will see if it can make a break to the upside. That might make an interesting trade, but it will be a trade only. WFC is trying to hold at a support level as well. I would not put my mother in that one.
Metals. FCX held the 200 day EMA. It may try to bounce off of a support level. AKS is trying to hold at a support level. A reader brought JCC, the copper fund, to my attention. It is in trouble, gapping below the 200 day. It tried to rally through it again on Friday but reversed and made a rower close. It could head lower. Copper is what the world's economy is built on; if it is struggling, then the world economy is not looking too good.
Energy. BTU is in a head and shoulders pattern. Looks like it could head down to that January low near the 200 day EMA near 58-59. BHI is struggling at the 50 day EMA. HAL did the same thing. We closed out our HAL positions. I did not feel comfortable about how it was unable to hold that gain and fell back through the 50 day EMA after breaking it intraday. FSLR gapped sharply lower on Tuesday. It has made a bear flag, and it could head to the downside.
Retail. DECK had a good Wednesday and Thursday. It gapped and sold a bit on Friday. Not a great pattern, but it is coming back. BWLD gapped higher but could not move through the old high. Still looks solid. Not in a position to buy. SCSS started to move higher. It still looks good to me to continue to the upside. AMZN is forming a nice pennant pattern. It may give us a new buy opportunity.
We see the same problems and positives that we have seen all along. Retail continues to do just fine. Energy is struggling right now. Metals are struggling but look like they could bounce off of lows. Financials do not look worth a darn. Tech stocks are interesting. There are several key players that are setting up and look like they want to move back to the upside. Industrials are mixed. Some look fine, testing a bit, while others look tired. We are still finding plenty of stocks to drive the market higher. It is just a matter of whether they will take the lead. We have to see technology take the lead again. It looks like it wants to do so.
Very important, because a lot of it stocks have tested back and are in position to move significantly over several weeks. That is what the market needs. A lot of retailers have already made moves and are somewhat extended. They may not have the longevity of a new rally that technology would have. I feel it is important to see technology step up right now. It typically does that in the summertime. It is a more cyclical time for technology. We are in May, so we will see. Often times it is "Sell in May and go away." We have some leadership that still looks good, and the markets are holding up. We will see if they can.
Jobs report shows a trend upside but initial jobless claims trying to thwart it.
Comparing recoveries: Why is the worst recession in 70 years providing the worst recovery in 70 years when typically the deeper the recession the faster the recovery?
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VIX. As you would expect, as the SP500 started to sell off this week. On Monday it started back down and bounced on Friday. Volatility started to rise. It reversed and has started higher. This is exactly at the point where the market struggled a bit before. Now we see the move higher. It is worrisome that on Friday when the market rallied, volatility rallied as well. Volatility should fall when the market rises. There are problems in history when volatility rises as the market rises. This is just one day, however. I do not want to get bent out of shape about it, but it is something to watch. If volatility continues to rise with the stock market, that is something to watch out for. That is something more sinister and not just an ordinary short-term pullback. We will definitely be watching that in the week to come.
VIX: 18.4; +0.2
VXN: 19.26; +0.14
VXO: 17.76; -0.21
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; -0.08
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 52.8% versus 54.3% prior. Falling modestly after holding near 54% (54.2%) for two weeks. Stepping down in stair-steps as bulls held steady for three weeks before that initial decline. Remains close to that 60+ level that indicates some trouble for a bull run. Hit 55.1% in January and 58.8% on the December high on this leg. It is matching those readings in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 16.5% versus 18.5%. Significant drop in bears on top of the drop from 19.2% the week before. As is typical, bears are declining just as the market peaks and starts to sell. Back down near the 16.3% it hit ahead of the last round of selling. The pullback from the February peak unnerved some investors as likely did the surge in gasoline, oil, and gold. Down from 23.1% to start April, but making their way back. Fell like a stone on that decline, moving below the April 2010 low. 28.3% in September 2010. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +12.84 points (+0.46%) to close at 2827.56
Volume: 2.054B (-8.33%)
Up Volume: 1.41B (+450.8M)
Down Volume: 606.31M (-663.69M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.52 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.57 to 1
New Highs: 70 (+19)
New Lows: 37 (-16)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +5.1 points (+0.38%) to close at 1340.2
NYSE Volume: 1.03B (-8.04%)
Up Volume: 702.63M (+402.79M)
Down Volume: 308.15M (-500.12M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.84 to 1
New Highs: 154 (+46)
New Lows: 38 (-31)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +54.57 points (+0.43%) to close at 12638.74
Volume DJ30: 168M shares Friday versus 177M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The indices are holding a pullback. They are at a point where they should make the break if they are going to. We have a nice rally, an inverted head and shoulders, a breakout, and a test of that breakout. Again, if they are going to move up, this is where they should do it. We will get answers and some closure. Some stocks are in great position to move higher. We have several and they are just outstanding. We even picked up some partial positions on Friday. They looked solid and were holding their moves. We want to be ready for next week in case the market continues higher.
This will be an important week. Either the market will continue higher or it will not. Either the techs and new leaders setting up will push to the front and take leadership or they will not. If they do not, I am not sure who will come up. The XLF is the financial services EFF. It looks interesting. It is setting up a triangle. It is a descending triangle, but those can give way to nice breaks to the upside. I would like to see a pullback down to the bottom level, maybe undercut it a bit and then reverse. What a great entry point that would be. Risk/reward would be fantastic. If it breaks out, you have plenty of upside. I would be more than happy to be in that, but we have to see it actually make the move.
Some insurance stocks look good, as one subscriber noted, but not all of them. ALL looks nice. A great breakout and a flag-pattern test of that breakout of a nice, flat trading range. Again, we will have to find some leadership to break these stock indices higher. Techs could fill the bill. Earnings are running out. We will still have earnings over the next couple of weeks. It is not a one-month event anymore, but they are waning. The market knows the gist of earnings, so it will not get that excited about what comes out.
It still wants to see more good earnings. We are looking for another catalyst. We have had the jobs report, and it could not do it. It will just have to be the old-fashioned belief in what the market will do. That would be growing earnings over the summer to warrant higher stock prices. The question is whether investors will be ready to do that. There could be a feeling that earnings will move higher, or it could be a slow summer where the adage "Sell in May then go away" comes to fruition.
In terms of economic reports next week, nothing gets going until Tuesday. We do not have much. Import and export prices are interesting. It will be interesting to see what that does with respect to energy costs. Wednesday is slow. We get the trade balance and Treasury budget. Important, but no one seems to pay much attention to them. Thursday will be much more important with the jobless claims. They bumped expectations to over 400K. We will get the PPI, and that will be really important. Of course there are retail sales. We had the Same Store Sales out on Thursday, and they were not bad. We will see if retail sales can continue to grow.
There was an interesting article in Bloomberg about the benefits of the foreclosure situation. Some people are squatters and just not paying their mortgages. On average, they can stay in their house for a year and a half before they are kicked out. They do not pay any rent and use that money to get their finances in order and will actually consume goods. They say that provides as much as $50B of consumption in the economy by people just not paying their mortgages.
Retail sales will be important on Friday Friday the 13th, mind you. We will get with CPI and Michigan Sentiment. Michigan Sentiment at 69.8. What did I say about sentiment during the Reagan years at this point in the recovery? It was a conference board, but it was at 100. I can guarantee you the conference board here is nowhere near that.
Next week we will be watching to see if the indices can resume that breakout after coming back and testing that move. There are some good stocks that we want to move into if the market does. This has gone to plan. We looked for a breakout, and it made it. We looked for a test, and it has done that. Now we have to see if it will reverse and continue the rally or if it is all done and will take the summer off.
I still like what I see from leadership. It has the horses to pull it, it is just a matter of whether or not those horses want to drink after being led to water. We will see. Everything is set, but it did not happen on Friday. That was somewhat of a concern given that the trigger was there. Perhaps they are waiting to see what happens on Monday. Also there was the turmoil with the commodities market. We will see what happens with respect to that.
A strengthening dollar will not hurt. It makes the oil cheaper and puts more money in each American's pocket. That will definitely not hurt our economy. Have a great Mother's Day weekend, and I will see you on Monday. Take care of your Mom. She gave you just about everything you have.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2827.56
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2956 from November 2000
3026 from October 2000 low
3042 is the May 2000 low
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April peak
2802 is the early March intraday peak
2796 is the February gap down point
The 50 day EMA at 2779
2762 is the February low
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low
2686 is the recent January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2603 is the March 2011 low
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2563
S&P 500: Closed at 1340.20
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1332 is the early March peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
The 50 day EMA at 1323
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1227 is the November 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1227
1220 is the April 2010 peak
Dow: Closed at 12,638.74
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,344
12,283 is the March 2011 peak is bending
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 11,452
May 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, April (08:30): 244K actual versus 185K expected, 221K prior (revised from 216K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, April (08:30): 268K actual versus 200K expected, 231K prior (revised from 230K)
Unemployment Rate, April (08:30): 9.0% actual versus 8.8% expected, 8.8% prior
Hourly Earnings, April (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Average Workweek, April (08:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
Consumer Credit, March (15:00): $6.0B actual versus $4.9B expected, $7.6B prior
May 10 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-agriculture, April (08:30): 1.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, April (08:30): 0.6% prior
Wholesale Inventories, March (10:00): 1.0% expected, 1.0% prior
May 11 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 05/06 (07:00): +4% prior
Trade Balance, March (08:30): -$47.8B expected, -$45.8B prior
Crude Inventories, 05/07 (10:30): 3.421M prior
Treasury Budget, April (14:00): $82.7B prior
May 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 05/07 (08:30): 423K expected, 474K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/30 (08:30): 3700K expected, 3733K prior
PPI, April (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.7% prior
Core PPI, April (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales, April (08:30): 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, April (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.8% prior
Business Inventories, March (10:00): 0.9% expected, 0.5% prior
May 13 - Friday
CPI, April (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
Core CPI, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, May (09:55): 69.8 expected, 69.8 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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