- Jobs report disappoints but market action is tame as investors avoided the Christmas rush, sold on Thursday.
- Dollar rebounded on the week and is eying more.
- Bonds rallied in anticipation of the weaker data as gold looks ready to break higher again.
- Indices at key support levels already, looking for a relief bounce.
- If market bounces is the smoking light on for upside buys?
Jobs report disappoints but market already sold hard in anticipation.
It will not take long to discuss what happened in the market on Friday. The entire week set up for the jobs report on Friday morning. It was weaker than expected, the unemployment rate was worse than expected, and stocks sold on that news. They did not sell too badly, however. The losses ranged from 0.2% on the Dow to roughly 0.5% on NASDAQ. There was not a large selloff because the news was somewhat expected. The economic data started to soften up this week (as told by the ISM). The economy is not creating the jobs needed to put a dent in the unemployment numbers. Thursday's jobless claims report was worse than expected; it was not surprising that investors did not sell off that much on Friday. With the weekend coming, the shorts avoided the Christmas rush on Thursday and sold that day instead of pushing the market lower on Friday. News can usually be found ahead of a weekend to bounce the market back up. The shorts backed off, and the buyers were not ready to buy. They did not rally the market when they had the opportunity, so there was stagnation. SP500 and NASDAQ sold down close to the early-August peaks; they did not touch them, but they came close and stalled there. That coincides with the 50 day EMA.
There was an early selloff, and the market move laterally for the rest of the session. There was not much excitement, but a sharp selloff for the week broke the indices out of their lateral consolidation. From my point of view, there were two possibilities. One was that the market could continue to move laterally, then consolidate in place and break higher down the road. The other option was a June-like consolidation or correction wherein the market would break down out of the range and sell back roughly 9%. It seems that is where the market is heading due to the strong selloff on Thursday. A bounce up in relief is not out of the question, perhaps at the start of next week. There tends to be more downside before a significant break to the upside, however, when there are these kinds of selloffs after the distribution that started two Wednesdays back with the key reversal session. It goes up and down, but the bias is definitely lower right now.
Internals were bland. Thursday was the big selloff, and that is where most of the fireworks occurred. Volume was lower on Friday (-10% NASDAQ; -12 NYSE). Trade fell back to roughly average on the NYSE. On NASDAQ it was lower, but it was still considerably above average. Overall, the volume was up to end the week as the selling intensified. That shows distribution, which is high-volume dumping of shares. Shares that were purchased during the July-September run on good volume, particularly in September, are now being sold in the last three days on the same strong volume. This does not mean investors have totally left the market. It means there was some profit taking and it is snowballing a little, as often occurs when a correction starts. This is similar to May; when the selling started, the market got choppy and the volume spiked up. There was some distribution, and then the market slid down, double bottomed, and then came up and tried again. Then there was higher volume as the market sold back. It caught itself and had its consolidation, and then started higher. Thus, it is premature to assume that the rally is over. There is still a lot of liquidity out in the world that could push it higher.
There are important aspects of the market that need to be noted.
On SP500 there is the March through July trendline. July is important because that is where the June-July consolidation ended and it formed the point of this trendline. Where Right now, SP500 is is sitting on top of that trendline, as well as the 50 day EMA. It is also right over the early-August peaks that are at about 1012. It is roughly 13 points from that level on the close. It tapped close on the Friday low; there is a shadow down from that doji and it bounced right back up. There is some support.
The small cap SP600 is also sitting over that March-July trendline as well as the 50 day EMA and the early August peaks. Both NYSE indices are showing the same pattern.
NASDAQ broke its March-July trendline on Thursday. It bounced up and attempted to test it on Friday but fell back. It is still above its 50 day EMA and the early August peaks, but it is struggling. If SP500 and the small caps provide a relief bounce from the selling, it will not roll over and tank. That could very well be the case.
On the trendline from SOX, I will go up through the July closing low. SOX is still above the March-July trendline and it is sitting right on the 50 day EMA and, once again, the early August peaks. The early August peaks go all the way back to its mid-September low where it bounced in 2008. That is an important area. All this means that important indices have come back to a relatively decent support level, and a bounce usually follows that. Stocks and indices do not move in straight lines very often. Sometimes they will, as we saw last year when the market imploded, but even then they do not move down a week at a time without coming up for air. When that happens, there are relief bounces and the opportunity to move into stocks to the downside or unload positions that you had on the upside that held some support and bounced. We can look at more upside positions if they continue to rally higher and money flows back and there is strong volume on the way up. A caution here, when the market turns volatile while the bulls and bears are fighting it out, strong upside days and strong downside days can both sport high volume. That does not necessarily mean that the high-volume upside washes away the high-volume distribution on the downside. A lot of high volume-volatility shows that there is no consensus in the market as to who is going to win. Indeed, after a rally higher, there is volatility that could mark the change of a trend. I often use weather analogies, and there are tremendous thunderstorms in the market. There is high volume that is often associated with the market beginning to top and when a trend is being threatened. It bounces around and volume jumps up.
I have been talking about SP500 down at 982 and NASDAQ dropping to 1972 in the range of the mid-August low. I have been talking about that because that is roughly a 9% pullback from the peaks that were in mid-September. There was a 9% pullback from June-July, and I have been looking at that has as a go-by. It is not a 100% percent accurate predictor, of course. This time, the rally was not as strong of a percentage gain as it was from March to June, so the market may not get that full pullback. This may be it. If it is going to hold trendlines, this would be the place to do it. The market formed the trendline from March-July and it is now testing that level. If it were to break and go to the mid-August lows, then it would breech that trendline.
This is an important point, and we will see how the market bounces from here. The market could very easily get a relief bounce next week, but that would not be an "all clear" sign to buy to the upside. I think there is still more downside. I could be totally wrong, and this trendline could hold and the volume could come sweeping in and send stocks higher. The problem is that there are many bad patterns out there that have taken big hits and had technical damage done to them. It remains to be seen whether they can mend themselves. It can be done. Money seems to solve a lot of ills, and there is certainly a lot of money in the market right now.
The market has come back to a trendline, and it is a good bounce point. It could give us some buys, and we will see how they pan out and what buys show up after a bounce. If it stalls out, we can go downside, and we can always look upside once more if it does not. We may be at another leg, but it is just too early in the game to say for sure. This could very well be something similar to May where the market came back to where it is now, and made a double bottom and bounced. It cleared it, but could not hold and came back for the deeper test. Keep that in mind if you see a good bounce higher. Everything I look at for the upside is going to be a shorter-term play. We are going to reduce our parameters quite a bit because the bias is still down given all of the heavy-volume selling that the market ran into.
AAPL is still in its uptrend and going strong. It received an upgrade on Friday which boosted it higher after some higher-volume selling on Thursday. AAPL is in its own league and makes its own wake right now, much as Dell did back in the early and mid-1990's. It is something that goes its own way and I am glad we own some of it.
In financials, GS is interesting. The market has had this nice rally, a really strong move, and there is an ABCD pattern set up here possibly bouncing up on Friday off the 'D' point. I will be watching this one. Maybe we can get a little work out of it, but it would have to almost come back and test because the level of the 'A' points are at 187. It is a tight play given the expense of the options on GS. Not all financials are doing great. JPM is not in an ABCD pattern; it is selling pretty hard, and we will have to see how it recovers. That is an example from across a lot of the financial sector. C is trying to make a higher low above its 50 day EMA. It tried to set up an ABCD pattern earlier, but it has lost its way and is trailing off to the side.
Metals have been important on the way down. As the dollar has rallied, old standbys such as AKS are in trouble and there is high-volume selling. On the other hand, copper stocks of all things are looking decent. SLT is in somewhat of an ascending triangle pattern. It gapped out of it and has held the gap and is trying to move higher. I am keeping an eye on that one to the upside. That may seem strange, but one has to go with what the market is showing.
The biotechs and medical have been performing fairly well. CELG fell back Thursday and Friday, but it is holding its gains and is in a shakeout. Biotech and defensive healthcare are in decent shape. Energy is not looking great, but I cannot help but note that COP had a great Friday on huge volume after a good-volume Thursday to the upside as well. It seems to be the lone wolf in its sector because there is carnage across all areas of energy. It is not the greatest picture right now, but it is not the worst either.
GLD (the ETF that mimics gold) has an interesting pattern. It is making a higher low and I think gold will make a new break higher. There is good volume on the upside days. Something of an ABCD pattern, although it is very ragged, broke higher and is now testing. Gold is going to be one of the plays this week.
Finally, the dollar. The downtrend for the year started in March after the US began printing the money for the stimulus plan and the dollar basically ripped itself in two. It has come down, made a lower low, double bottomed, and is trying to break higher. It broke through that trendline from March and is trying to test it. I think the dollar is going to try to run up to that resistance at 78. That is the dollar index - it is not the dollar itself, but the dollar against many currencies across the world. There is some serious resistance from December 2008 as well as June 2009, and even late August 2009. The dollar is going to have a hard time getting through that. If the dollar breaks through 78 on its dollar index, it will pop up to 80. That will keep pressure on the commodities, on oil, and possibly energy in general. That dovetails with the need to make a correction, and if the dollar breaks over 78, then the market will go down and have more of a correction. Keep that in mind. That is why I want to look to short or go to the downside - I prefer puts on SPY, the EEM, and other areas that will be impacted by a rising dollar. That would include the metals. We can also look at the commodities index as a way to play the downside on those dollar-sensitive stocks as the dollar rallies. There are some interesting ideas out there that can make us some money even as the trend that has been in place since the March low does some backtracking. The dollar peaked in March as the SP500 and the stock market in general bottomed. With that, we can see that there could be a reversal change, but we can play that reverse and make some money off of that by playing downside on the dollar-sensitive stocks and indices that we played to the upside as the dollar sold off.
Jobs report weak on all fronts, particularly the average workweek.
In other markets, gold has been bouncing back and forth around 1000, oil has been a little bit over or under 70, bouncing around because the dollar has been driving it. The dollar has been moving up and down and that has impacted the stocks that rally inversely to the dollar and that move with the dollar. We are getting a choppy trade right now, although the bias has definitely shifted to the downside.
The dollar started off the session stronger after the weaker jobs report (closing at 1.4574 Euros versus 1.4524 on Thursday). Even though it is being debased by our Treasury and Fed, the dollar can still act as a safe harbor when it looks like the world economy might be in trouble. US bonds are that way and the dollar acts that way to a certain extent. Bonds sold a bit and yields bounced back up (10 year closing 3.22% versus 3.19% Thursday). Friday morning the 10 year yield fell all the way down to 3.12% before it rebounded somewhat as the day progressed and investors turned away from bonds. Bonds tend to act as a safe haven. I have been discussing for the past week and a half why bonds are moving higher if the economy is recovering. That is a dichotomy, and something was wrong there. On Thursday night, economic data came out during the week with ISM as the mean feature. It showed that things are not as good as they were. The Chicago PMI turned back to negative and was contracting this month. The ISM, while still expanding, was not expanding as sharply and that brought up fears about whether or not the US economy would continue its V-shaped bounce or fall into a double dip (or "W-type") bottom. That could very well be the case. I talked about this a lot several months ago given the type of stimulus we had. Of course we are going to get a recovery after the economy shut down. It has got to go back to work at some point, but with credit in the pits, with no one lending, and with a lot of commercial real estate and residential real estate vacant, there is not a lot of power to drive consumer confidence higher. Their wages are down and their main investments, their homes, are way down in price as well. The market is trying to deal with these issues.
The non-farm payrolls were down (-263K versus -175K expected) They were at -225K, they were at -200K, and then they even slipped further because of some optimism about what was happening. I do not know where the optimism came from when you look at the weekly jobless claims because they are not getting better to the extent that would impact the overall number. Nonetheless, hope springs eternal. There were revisions. August was revised to -201K from -2 16K. That is positive, but July went in the other direction and the revisions to the downside were much higher. It virtually wiped away any of the August revisions. Really what we had was a negative on top of a negative with the revisions. It did not make expectations and the revisions took away any possibility that there might be a wash out of it.
The losses were spread throughout the economy. Manufacturing was down 51K, the service industry lost 147K, retail lost 39K. Surprisingly, the government lost 53K jobs. I am hearing there are teachers being laid off despite the stimulus plan that is supposed to provide salaries for teachers, policemen, firemen, and those essential services. It is not doing the trick, and I think we will hear more about that after the boondoggle in Copenhagen where the President flew over on Air Force One and the First Lady flew over on the other Air Force One. They could not go together, of course and save the taxpayers any money. We spent money on it, and there is going to be egg on the face which happens to every administration. What can you do? You do the best you can and someone is always going to find fault. That would be me.
In any event, it was weak across the board. I expected that, and I do not expect anything to pick up. The internals and they are getting worse, not getting better. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8%, in line with expectations after being at 9.7% in August. That puts it at the August 2003 level when we were coming out of that recession. That was a rip-roaring recovery.
What bothered me about the report was the average workweek. They hours worked every week fell to 33.0 from 33.1. I have had a problem with the average workweek. It was trying to bounce up to 33.2, 33.3, but it has been backsliding. It is very important in forecasting what will happen in the unemployment market because the average workweek has to start rising in order to show that companies are putting their workers to work more efficiently and getting more work out of them. We are not creeping higher, we are actually sliding lower. That is one of the most important barometers because if they do not need their workers as much, they are not going to be hiring temporary workers. Temporary workers are where the new permanent hires come from when the economy turns. I have been talking with trucking companies lately because drivers can be a great source for information. They are saying their freight is way down; indeed, a lot of drivers are barely getting any driving time in and others are calling in on standby. They are asking to drive, but there is no need for them because there is not enough freight to move. That is a very bad indication for the economy.
I have been hopeful that things would pick up, but when I started checking out these areas that show whether the economy is showing true improvement, I find it is not the case. Trucking is a very important part because even if you ship by rails or air, when it gets off of the airplane or the railroad car, it usually has to be delivered the last bit of the way by truck. If they are not taking it cross country, they are not taking it inner city, we have problems with respect to the amount of goods being moved. It shows the economy is not that great and we could be very much in the double dip. That is why the bond market was rallying, sending rates lower when the economy was supposedly improving.
Dollar at a point it can bounce further and foster a further market pullback.
All of this has not been good for oil ($69.68, -1.14 on Friday). It has been bouncing in that range from $66.00 -74.00. It is range-bound right now as it waits out and sees what the economy will do. Even though oil is driven by the dollar, it is also driven by the world economies. If they go slack, there is no reason to have as much oil, or at least to have it priced as high. It has had a hard time trying to break out of that range, though we still see energy stocks holding up very well, so we know that there is some life in Brazil, in India, and in China. It is just not here in the USA. Maybe Western Europe can help pull things out if it can continue to show its improving data and not backslide as the US did this week.
Near term, it is a gloomy picture as far as the economics are concerned. On the other hand, it cannot go up every month. Stocks do not go up every day or every week. They have to come back and test, and then surge and test again. That is the way natural rhythms work. Maybe next month we will get a bounce back will all laugh about what happened. The point is this is all dovetailing with what has happened the bond market and also what the market has done at this point. It has had a strong run from July-September and now it is going to backtrack somewhat.
Whether it is sentiment or psychology leading the market is up for people who are smarter than me to argue about. Do note how all the issues tend to hit at once and drive the market down or up. Are they really that bad? This economic data was not that bad this week. There is some backsliding but it was not horrible, and definitely not unexpected with the jobs report. Yet the market is selling off. It is ready to sell off, ready to correct and pull back. This is the case with lot of markets - not just in stocks. Gold was correcting back, oil was spiked up and it is coming back, and the rallying bonds peeled back a bit. The dollar was getting crushed and now it is in a relief bounce. The market may double dip, but is it really going to crush the market? It is possible, but when you look at how everything dovetails together, it all just builds upon itself and it is a self-fulfilling prophesy. What is the market but a bunch of people buying and selling? People are lead by fear and greed to buy and to sell, and that gives the push and pull in the market. Right now the market has run higher and there is a fear that people are going to lose their profits. They are then quick to pull the trigger. We were doing it, too; we have been selling for three weeks now. We take profits and that tends to self-fulfill the pullback because we are worried about losing them.
While this economic data is not as good this week, it was not a crushing blow by any circumstances (the ISM did not fall back to 45 or anything like that). This is more of what I expected all along: a correction of that last strong run just as the market had in May and June. This is no big deal, and is just what the market normally does. Do not get bent out of shape about this. Let us keep plugging along and watching for opportunity. It looks like there will be more downside near term after the market bounces back up in relief. When the correction is over I think the leaders will be there, and will set up again and ready to move higher. Maybe the economic data will come in much worse and it really does double dip, and then the market sells off more before it is ready to move again. If that is the case, so be it. Right now, nothing indicates that is going to happen.
VIX: 28.68; +0.41. The VIX is starting to rise, part of the volatility discussed in the 'Technical' section. Back up to the early September high. Volatility has put in a nice 12 week consolidation after trending lower from January 2009 in a very well defined down trendline. With this base it looks as if volatility is ready to spike some. That is the change of season indication, and we could see volatility approaching 35 as in the 2008 peaks before the huge spike in the financial meltdown. It could even rally to 40 where there is key resistance. That would, however, entail a pretty severe selloff. We are expecting it to rise rather sharply over the next few weeks regardless.
VXN: 29.02; +0.07
VXO: 28.01; +0.33
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.15. Bouncing back over 1.0, starting to show the kind of pessimism that can fuel a rebound. A serious recovery, however, requires a series of closes over 1.0.
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 50.6%. After backing off three weeks prior the bulls gained strength . . . just as the market topped in this last run. Now matching the level from 5 weeks back. It will now turn back. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 23.6%. Down as well, declining modestly the past two weeks from 24.4%. Bears bounced higher on that same skepticism impacting the bullish figures, and after this week they will be higher again. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -9.37 points (-0.46%) to close at 2048.11
Volume: 2.367B (-10.19%)
Up Volume: 752.258M (+555.321M)
Down Volume: 1.704B (-829.446M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.81 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.66 to 1
New Highs: 34 (-11)
New Lows: 18 (+4)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -4.64 points (-0.45%) to close at 1025.21
NYSE Volume: 1.404B (-12.41%)
Up Volume: 441.006M (+359.758M)
Down Volume: 949.686M (-563.93M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.63 to 1
New Highs: 110 (-53)
New Lows: 38 (+4)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -21.61 points (-0.23%) to close at 9487.67
Volume DJ30: 216M shares Friday versus 266M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The market did not sell off much on Friday. Sellers avoided the Christmas rush and got out of the market on Thursday anticipating that Friday jobs report would be weak. They did not want to sell more ahead of the weekend.
The market milled around negative and was not able to move up or down. SP500 and NASDAQ are sitting on support. We may get a relief bounce. That is a coin toss because Mondays often open up horribly lower after a big selloff and a pause. If there is a bounce, that would be great. We will implement our standing plan at this point. If there is a bounce, we will look at downside plays that we can buy into and catch for a further move lower . [I will also look at upside positions - a lot of them are at support after these days. We got rid of those that have not broken down. If they bounce up and cannot get through the next resistance, we can use the bounce to get rid of them, move on out and have the cash free for other opportunities. We can very much be at bounce time with the major indices at a near support level. That could give opportunity. If it does not happen that way and the market sells down, we will have to look for the next round. Do not chase at this point. Stocks that are down two or three days and then down hard on Thursday do not provide a good entry to chase them. We will look for bounces on those.
Not all stocks are down and beaten up at this point. Some of them are breaking lower or have set up a downside pattern, and those will still provide opportunities to the downside. We do not want to feel like we are missing the boat and make bad choices and jump into the downside. Friday I was looking downside, no doubt about that. I wanted to get into some more of them and we probably could have pulled the trigger on a couple, but we were looking for more of a bounce back up late that did not materialize. It was not worth it to chase them. We will let our downside positions run and if there is another bounce, we can load up or some more SPY positions. There may be others like the EEM or other ETFs that could provide a chance the make a play on the broad market overall as well as individual stocks that can move more than the indices can and give us more bang for the buck.
Our plan stays the same because the market is in the same mode. The reversal two Wednesdays ago, the inability to make any higher highs, and now the break lower on Thursday that took it out of its range. That range will be tested, it will bounce back up and try to bump into that at some point whether we go down further from here or bounce first. We will see how next week plays out. Either way, we will get opportunities and will take advantage of them as the market makes this correction that we knew was coming. We just had to figure out how deep it was going to be. For now, we are looking at the same levels I talked about on Thursday and earlier in the technical discussion.
Hang in there and have a great weekend. The sun will come out again at some point. I think this correction is being overblown at this point with all the gloom that was in the financial stations after the Friday close. Keep looking at what really has happened. Do not listen as much to what they are telling you, and you will see that this correction looks normal as can be right now. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2048.11
2060 is the August peak
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
The March up trendline at 2090
The 18 day EMA at 2089
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
The 50 day EMA at 2025
2016 is the early August peak. Key level.
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 200 day SM A at 1729
S&P 500: Closed at 1025.21
The August peak at 1040
The 18 day EMA at 1045
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
The March/July up trendline at 1020
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The 50 day EMA at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 200 day SMA at 900
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
888.70 is the April intraday high.
Dow: Closed at 9487.67
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9654 is the November 2008 high
The 18 day EMA at 9638
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9918 is the September 2008 peak
10,365 is the late September low
The 50 day EMA at 9410
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
The 200 day SMA at 8465
8451 is the early October closing low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 02 - Friday
Average Workweek, September (08:30): 33.0 actual versus 33.1 expected, 33.1 prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): -263K actual versus -175K expected, -201K prior (revised from -216K)
Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.8% actual versus 9.8% expected, 9.7% prior (no revisions)
Factory Orders, August (10:00): -0.8% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.4% prior (revised from 1.3%)
October 05 - Monday
ISM Services, September (10:00): 50.0 expected, 48.4 prior
October 07 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 10/02 (10:30): 2.80M prior
Consumer Credit, August (14:00): -9.5B expected, -21.6B prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00)
October 08 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/03 (08:30): 551K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/26 (08:30): 6090K prior
Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.4% prior
October 09 - Friday
Trade Balance, August (08:30): -32.9B expected, -32.0B prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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