- No direction Friday ahead of a long weekend.
- Credit improvement is good but no sufficient.
- Prestige lost or economic clout lost?
- A good plan or just any old plan?
- Ready to test the bottom of the new range to start next week.
Noncommittal: Market shows an inside day ahead of the holiday weekend.
Friday was what is called an inside day. That is where the indices trade between the prior session's high and low. Neither the buyers nor the sellers had enough strength to push the market higher or lower. That is about as noncommittal a day as you can get. Heading into a three-day weekend and with the indices trading in what looks to be a new trading range, that is not surprising.
As for the news on Friday, there were some positives and negatives. The positives: same store sales were better than expected. They are still falling, just not as much as anticipated. That is the same story sales have told the past three months, so whether this is really a positive is problematical. In addition to sales, the Fed announced that, for the first time since September 2008 when the crisis started, banks were borrowing less from the Fed's emergency facilities. Good news as it shows the credit situation is improving.
As for the negatives, British Airways said that it does not see any green shoots in any of its markets. In fact, it says that things are worse in Asia, the region many are looking at to pull the world out of recession, than anywhere else in the world. Asia rose faster than any place in the world when it came to GDP growth, so you would expect the relative crash to be stronger in Asia. That makes sense, but it does not bode well for the world economic recovery.
More negatives. The dollar was crushed once more, going out for the week at 1.40 euros. It is getting hammered on the idea that the U.S. credit rating may be lowered sometime in the near future. Gold was higher again, rising to $958.90 - up $7. It is spiking, albeit it is not running $45-50 a day as it did last year when it exploded to $1,000; nonetheless it is posting strong gains once more on what we are calling the inflation trade.
Of course with all of this news, the ten-year treasury yield continued its surge, reaching 3.45%. Recall that just three weeks back the 10 year treasury yield held 3%, actually breaking into the 2% range. The action shows inflation pressures are building given the rapid climb back up in yield in the all important 10-year bond.
The result for Friday is what is called in street parlance a big goose egg. Stocks were up for most of the session after a sloppy start, then faded late ahead of the close and the long weekend. Typically before a long weekend, stocks move higher because shorts are concerned about holding their positions through a long weekend; they stand to lose a lot more money than the longs if something unexpected happens because their risk is basically infinite. Friday stocks moved down into the close, showing the worry in the bulls and a little more boldness in the sellers given the credit and inflation situation.
What did we do on the session? The market was bifurcated yet again with some sectors moving well, some selling off, most just holding their ranges. Given that action we bought some inflation plays such as SU and UCO (UCO being an ETF that plays off of oil prices). We also bought into a play that was not related to inflation at all: AMX. AMX is a foreign telecom showing great action the past month. We bought some inflation plays to the downside as well, e.g. SKF, a financial 2X short, a.k.a. an ultra short. If inflation kicks in, the financials are going to be hurt and thus our interest in the SKF. We also entered a downside play on a plain old overbought stock, POT. We own POT long, but will take a short play on it as the opportunity presents itself given that POT is very extended.
INTRADAY. The futures were modestly higher, but stocks sold right on the open after a slightly higher open. They bounced and then returned the positive, and held positive for most of the day. In fact, it looked as if stocks would go out positive, that the market bias at the end of the day ahead of the three-day weekend would keep things up. As it turned out that did not happen as stocks sold off into the bell, turning the indices negative, but only slightly so; they did not go into the tank by any stretch.
INTERNALS. The internals roughly matched the session. The breadth for the day split the baby at +1.2:1 on NYSE, and -1.2:1 on NASDAQ; that is about as even as you can get. There was holiday light volume at 1B shares on the NYSE, and only 1.5B on NASDAQ. Trade remains well below average, but that is just fine for a consolidation. We'll talk more about trade later because, on the indices, we are seeing differences in high-volume days versus low-volume days. Overall, however, the idea is that this is still lower, consolidation level trade; as the market moves sideways, that is just fine.
CHARTS. Consolidation is what the charts are showing us. This was an inside day; the market did not want to go anywhere ahead of the long weekend. In the bigger picture, that left the indices in the lower half of their May trading range; nonetheless, they are still holding that trading range, hovering over some key support levels. On the negative side they did put in a lower high for the week, but right now that is not definitive, particularly given the low volume. In short, all the indices held above that next support level and that kept them inside this newly forming trading range. The action is, let us say it once more: Consolidation.
As noted earlier in the week, the only conclusion that can be drawn based upon this action is that the market is in a continuing uptrend that is taking a bit of a hiatus with this lateral move. What that means is the original steep uptrend is broken, but it has not broken down. Indeed the indices are moving laterally; they made a high, tested key support, bounced again, and now they are back down to test the lows once more. If they test and hold, that is a solid indication that the consolidation has a firm level of support and will likely hold as it continues laterally. This is an overall bullish scenario because a market that refuses to give up it is gains a market that is stingy with its gains is one that will try to move up again. In sum, the market that is still trending higher because, even though it has broken its short term trend, it is not breaking below key support and is consolidating on nice, low volume.
LEADERSHIP. A somewhat mushy week, but that was in keeping with the market overall. China stocks were a performer, looking very solid Friday they could set up some nice plays in the coming week ahead as they form bullish patterns again after coming back and consolidating earlier than the rest of the market. Leaders tend to lead the overall market. China stocks were out early; they got choppy, but have been holding up and are ready to move again from the looks of it. Makes sense if there is an inflation trade going on, because China is a faster grower and you get more for your money in a faster growing economy than you do in a slower growth economy such as the U.S. right now. China is projecting 8% growth next year; you will stay further ahead of inflation with 8% growth than you will with even trend growth in the United States. Thus China stocks are getting some serious money right now and we need to take a look at those.
Energy and commodity stocks were not up for the day, but were recovering from the prior session. They found support and are making some noise as if they want to move up again; indeed we bought into some of those plays as they held support and bounced. Semiconductors logged a solid session as well. Interestingly, the SOX was the only index to close positive though it was just a fractional gain. After a long consolidation, if the semiconductors start to lead again, that is a pretty bullish economic indication versus just having energy, commodity, and gold stocks moving higher on that inflation-related trade.
Leadership, though mushy, is continuing to hold up. We are still seeing new areas move up as money rotates their way. That is very important for keeping a rally going; you have to have money rotate through leadership groups as well as bring in new leadership groups along the way to keep rallies going. We are seeing some old leaders that peaked out first getting recycled into the leadership position once more; that is what a healthy market does. There is a lot of money in the market from all the liquidity, so you would expect it to rotate through areas, pick up stocks that have consolidated and start carrying them higher again. If the market continues to consolidate, we are going to see more good leaders come back into play in good position and they will give us good entry points.
SUMMARY. The week left the indices slightly higher, even though they sold off Tuesday through Friday. Monday's low volume gain padded the upside enough to tip the indices positive despite the selling. It just goes to show that when you are in a consolidation you are going to have big moves up and big moves down with littler moves in between. We can play a consolidation range again, it looks to be setting up that way and pick great leaders and other stocks that tend to move quickly up and down, taking what the market gives.
Which is more important: Credit spreads or Treasury yields?
There is a an argument brewing about what will impact the economy more: improvement in the credit markets or the surge in bond yields. It is very true that the credit market improvement is key to the recovery; credit has to be available in order to move money to where it is needed, and only now is the credit market getting to where it needs to be to do just that.
For example, Friday the 3-month LIBOR fell to 0.66%. The TED spread (dollar LIBOR minus the U.S. 3-month treasury bill) was at 0.49%. For reference, in August of 2006, it averaged 0.36%. It is getting close to being back to a healthy level. That is very important to getting the economy moving, but does it trump the rising indeed spiking bond yields? No, it does not. Credit is a necessary part of getting the system healed, but it is not recovery in and of itself.
The surging bond yields are going to impact many areas. We will see it impact home sales that are just starting to pick up thanks to lower rates and foreclosures creating great buys. Higher yields make it difficult, in a recession, for people to afford housing. Incomes are down, interest rates are up; you qualify for less of a home. With the lending restrictions that are now in the market despite the federal government and the Federal Reserve wanting banks to lend, they simply cannot do so at a level that will allow many to afford new homes, first time buyer credit or no.
There is huge inflation out there that is going to trump the improved credit market at this juncture. The credit market is getting in good shape to move money, but if interest rates are so high that a potential borrower cannot take advantage of it, then it does no good.
Unfortunately, interest rates appear to only be heading higher. As the dollar collapses and the feds take on more debt through all its programs, higher interest rates are necessary to entice foreign banks to buy our debt instruments. Moreover, the weaker dollar drives prices higher across the board. Anything denominated in dollars rises because as the dollar gets weaker it buys less. So, we import inflation because we have to spend more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil, ton of steel, etc. On top of that, vendors raise prices to compensate for the dollar's lost value. It is a vicious cycle and we paid dearly for it, to the tune of about $700B/year in oil payments when oil was at $140/bbl, to OPEC nations. While oil has dropped in price, the dollar has as well. Thus the net outflow of wealth to OPEC is still staggering.
The lower dollar and weakening economic data raise our borrowing costs as the US has to offer higher interest rates in order to attract foreign countries (the lenders) to take our debt that is going to be repaid in dollars. There is an old adage that you repay debts in times of high inflation. Why? Because the dollars you use to pay back that fixed amount of debt are worth less. What banks would like to do in times of inflation is renegotiate and adjust the rates higher in order to offset the loss of the value of the dollar. Since they cannot do that, you as the borrower benefit because you want to pay your debt off now or in the future, as inflation spikes and the dollars that you have to pay off the debt are not as dear to you.
Is the US losing its "prestige?"
There was an argument Friday on the financial stations regarding whether the U.S. had lost its because of the falling dollar. The argument misses the point. The U.S. is not losing any prestige based on that it is just a symptom. Any loss in prestige is due to a loss of economic power. Unlike the 2002-2003 recovery, economic numbers are not turning positive, just avoiding the death spiral they were in. The numbers that are still falling, and on top of that we are piling on debt. In 2010 debt is going to be 70% of our GDP; staggering. We were running debt levels at 2.5% of GDP, and now we have ballooned beyond wartime levels. We are very close to or at the level where foreign countries finally refuse to buy our debt. We may be the United States, but they will not want our debt because we are carrying too much of it; we are becoming a risky investment. The policies the Administration is promulgating are not going to lead to recovery. Foreign bankers are not stupid; they see that we are doing the same things we did in the 1970's and are worried that we are taking on too much debt without having policies that are designed to give us rapid and strong growth, such as we did in the 1980's. That has them worried. Indeed, there is a rumor that foreign central banks are coming to the New York Federal Reserve and wanting to cash out. Whether it is true or not, it is something we have to consider given the huge amount of debt-to-GDP ratio we are carrying right now and into 2010.
We may lose prestige, but we have to fix the economy in order to get better. Prestige goes hand in hand with the economy. If you fix the economy, you have prestige. We must avoid the 1970's-like malaise that the federal government's current policies will likely cause yet again.
In summary, while we could have debt levels up to 20% in a time of crisis and other countries would not feel that was necessarily dangerous, with the runaway debt we have right now, the US is creating a serious problem. No one wants to hold debt when it gets to that level, and we may see that Triple A rating downgraded in the next few weeks.
A Fool's Plan?
There is a commercial were T. Boone Pickens talks about his green initiatives. Again, we have no problem with going green in the right way. One of Picken's sayings is "A fool with a plan is better than a genius with no plan." I am paraphrasing, but that is the gist of what he is saying - and it is totally wrong. Fools tend to have foolish plans because the beliefs they hold that underlie their plans are simply wrong. Thus following a fool's plan often leads to disaster. Look at the Nixon, Ford, and Carter Administrations. Look at the 1929 Fed. Look at Greenspan in 1999. They had plans, but they were fool's plans; when implemented they brought economic disaster to the country.
The 1929 Fed helped throw the US into the Great Depression. Greenspan flooded the financial markets with liquidity ahead of Y2K. Just as now, all of that money that unused money went into the financial markets. NASDAQ rallied 75% from summer 1999 through March of 2000; when the money was called in the economy seized up and we went into recession.
Thus, saying that having a plan is the end in itself is flat out wrong, and yet with respect to the economy, healthcare, and even prisoners of the terror war we are proceeding without good plans. This is not new just to the current Administration; the past few have acted in the same manner. The stakes right now, however, are extremely high. We are as we used to say in my law practice 'betting the farm,' and unfortunately not many realize this. History shows us we need to do more than something we need to do the correct something. What the markets are telling us the bond market, gold market, commodities market is that we are pursuing the wrong fiscal plans in Washington right now, i.e. the fool's plan.
VIX: 32.63; +1.28
VXN: 31.87; +0.67
VXO: 32.08; +0.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.81; -0.17
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.
Bulls: 40.7% versus 41.0% the prior week. Modest bump higher from 40.4% as bullishness hung around even as the market turned to some chop though still finished that week higher. After this week bullish spirits may be dampened some. Still a strong move, up from 36.0% just three weeks back and moving in on the 43.2% hit mid-April before anticipation of stress tests and SOX' issues. Over the 35% threshold, below which is considered bullish, but this is not a bearish indication yet. Has to get up to the 60% to 65% level to be bearish. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 29.1% versus 33.7%. Interesting rise in bearishness (from 31.5%) even as the bulls rose and the market moved higher though was much choppier. Well off the 37.2% and the 37.1% in mid-April as the rally continued higher. As with bulls, below the 35% threshold considered bullish though not at bearish levels. Now far from off the high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -3.24 points (-0.19%) to close at 1692.01
Volume: 1.561B (-29.67%)
Up Volume: 673.441M (+181.349M)
Down Volume: 931.307M (-803.572M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.42 to 1
New Highs: 25 (+6)
New Lows: 5 (-7)
NASDAQ is holding the new range from the May lows. Volume is slightly higher on the downside sessions for most of May. That shows there is some distribution, or churning high volume turnover where the sellers and buyers are basically even and they are dumping and buying rapidly. But the question now is whether or not this volume is enough to defeat the current trading range that seems to be forming. Remember, all the volume has been mostly below average; it is not strong trade. There is some turnover, but on light trade that is more indicative of the trading range we are seeing now. NASDAQ has made a lower high this week and is coming back, but it is also still above a critical level the January peak at 1665.
Techs are somewhat sloppy as well. Their patterns are sloppy; they have broken their trends, but they are trying to hold support just as NASDAQ is trying to hold. We anticipate NASDAQ will come back and test that May low again which is the January low as well next week. That will tell more of the tale. If it holds, that becomes much more solid support and it will likely bounce back up in its trading range. If it breaks down, we play the downside, letting our current downside plays continue to run; the QID and the QQQQ's. If it holds, then it will bounce; we will need to close them out and play the range. That will show that we are going into a trading range and need to play that.
NASDAQ CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/NewsLetterMgr/chartsPart1/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100: http://www.themarketbeat.com/NewsLetterMgr/chartsPart1/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/NewsLetterMgr/chartsPart1/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -1.33 points (-0.15%) to close at 887
NYSE Volume: 1.058B (-26.41%)
Up Volume: 415.406M (+97.139M)
Down Volume: 626.086M (-484.246M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.78 to 1
New Highs: 17 (+3)
New Lows: 42 (+1)
SP500 is showing the same action as NASDAQ. Indeed, it is even closer to the May low at 882 than NASDAQ is to it is May low. There is also a key support level at the February peak at 875 you have heard us talk of that level quite a bit. The large caps are trying to establish, 875 and indeed even the higher level at 882 as the bottom of this new trading range. We are going to do the same think that we will watch with NASDAQ. The volume on the NYSE has been even less churn, less distribution, than on NASDAQ. It is much more in favor even of a consolidation move.
As with NASDAQ we are likely to get a test of the May lows early this week-again, that is where the important hold or failure will occur, and we will be watching that. If it holds, it will likely give us a bounce back up to the top of the range and we need to close out downside plays that are at risk of bouncing such as any of the index plays and then look to play the bounce to the upside. If SP500 heads into a range, we need to adjust our thinking along those lines and start thinking trading range once more as opposed to straight up, or breaking down and tumbling lower.
SP500 CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/NewsLetterMgr/chartsPart1/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://themarketbeat.com/NewsletterMgr/chartsPart1/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -14.81 points (-0.18%) to close at 8277.32
Volume: 244M shares Friday versus 302M shares Thursday. Low volume all week.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/NewsLetterMgr/chartsPart1/DJ30.jpeg
Despite the four-day slide Tuesday through Friday the indices closed higher thanks to that low-volume surge on Monday. That gave the indices enough buffer to hold in what looks to be this newly formed trading range. They refuse to give up their gains a market or a stock that is stingy with it is gains, that holds up near the top of it is rally then moves laterally, is a stock or index that is still getting money put into it. There may be some sellers and some profit-takers, but every time they come along, there are buyers to keep a little bid under those stocks to keep the money in there, which keeps it from breaking down. Two weeks back it looked as if the market was primed to fall, but money came in and propped it upright at that May low and the prior peaks. There is still that bid that is holding the indices above a very critical point heading into next week. Moreover, the internals do not suggest heavy selling, or that the sellers are otherwise undermining the entire market. Overall money continues moving in, propping up stocks and the indices at key levels.
What do we do? We have to assume and proceed with the idea that the rally is still in place as there has been no breakdown. The sharp upside trendline broke, but now the market is showing a lateral consolidation versus selling off. That is still bullish action and we must proceed with that mindset. We do have some downside plays and will have more to consider in the event the indices cannot hold this second test of the prior peaks on NASDAQ and SP500. At the same time we have more upside plays because they continue to perform and the market has not rolled over.
This weekend we have some new upside plays ready to go in case the range that looks like it will be tested early in the week holds and they start to bounce; we want to play the move up in the range. We also have some downside plays at the ready. In the event the range does not hold, the market will finally get the test that the market really needs. These gains have been huge to this point 30-35% runs in the indices is a very strong snapback. Typically there is more of a retracement after such a move, but the market is not selling because of all the liquidity in the world. That money is working into the financial markets because the world economies are not good enough to absorb it yet. In other words, there is not enough activity and not enough fiscal programs coming out of the major economic countries that stimulate the kind of activity the market needs.
What the US and indeed the world needs is the kind of policies that gives businesses and entrepreneurs a reason to spend money a reason to invest in America even when there is no economic activity to induce them to do that. The current stimulus simply does not provide that incentive and thus there is all this money pushing the market higher, as would a good economic recovery. The difference is, at some point that money is going to run out. Eventually that money won't matter because the economic data fails to show the kind of improvement needed.
For now the money is leading the move because there is still good enough improvement in the numbers to keep the promise of recovery alive. Eventually it will fail, but until it does, we are going to play whatever the market gives us right now it looks to be a trading range. Maybe this trading range is the last one before a big crash; we do not know that, and indeed no one does. We will watch the critical levels where the buyers and sellers engage one another; right now that is the support level in this new consolidation range that is forming whichever side wins out, we are ready to take the plays that way. So we watch the test to see if the market bounces and tries to break out at the top of the range or if it turns back down and makes a test again. That is the way the market is working right now; that is the market we have, and you know we always take what the market gives. Have a great three-day weekend. I will see you on Tuesday, and we will make some more money again in the coming week.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1692.01
The 18 day EMA at 1702
The 200 day SMA at 1712
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
1773 is the May peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1947 is the October gap down point
1673 is the prior April peak
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1664 is the May 2008 low
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
The 50 day EMA at 1642
1623 is the early April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 887.00
888.70 is the April intraday high.
The 18 day EMA at 891
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
930 is the May peak
935 is the January closing high
944 is the January 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 936
882 is the early May low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
The prior April peak at 876
866 is the second October 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 862
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
842 is the early April peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 825
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 8277.32
8307 is the April 2009 intraday high
The 18 day EMA at 8313
8315 is the February 2009 peak
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8588 is the May high
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8221 is the May 2008 low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8191 is the prior April peak
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
The early April intraday peak at 8113
The 50 day EMA at 8103
The early April peak at 8076
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 26 - Tuesday
March S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (9:00): -18.4% expected, -18.63% prior
Consumer Confidence, May (10:00): 42.0 expected, 39.2 prior
May 27 - Wednesday
May Existing Homes Sales (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.57M prior
May 28 - Thursday
April Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.8% prior
Durable, Ex-Transport, April (8:30): -0.3% expected, -0.6% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 5/23 (8:30): 631K prior
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 363K expected, 356K prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 5/22 (11:00): -2.10M prior
May 29 - Friday
Q1 GDP - Prelim. (8:30): -5.5% expected, -6.1% prior
GDP Deflator, Q1 (8:30): 2.9% expected, 2.9% prior
Chicago PMI, May (9:45): 42.0 expected, 40.1 prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev (9:55): 68.0 expected, 67.9 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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